Boeing lowers 747-8 production rate

[JF Mezei]

http://boeing.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=2658

Basically, Boeing lowers it from 2 aircraft per month to 1.75 ( 24/year
down to 21) Not a really big change.

What is interesting in that release is that of the 110 orders for cargo
and pax received so far, Boeing has already delivered 46. So basically 3
years from having filled the order book.

The A380 which has had a few years headstart, has 262 orders and 101
delivered. But if Airbus maintains 24/year rate, they have over 6 years
backlog.

How many 747-400s are still in service around the world ? And how many
of these will be replaced with 777s instead of 747/380s ?

I did some math, and replacing 4 72k poung engines with twin engines
woudl require each engine have 216k punts of thrust (equivalent of 3
engines in current config). I don't think this is feasable, right ?

(And I am being generous here since many airlines have ordered higher
thrust variant that go up to 84k pounts).

So if the VLAs cannot move from 4 to 2 engines, are they doomed compared
to their smaller brothers the 787 and 350 as well as potential for the
upgraded 777x ? Or will there remain sufficent routes to justify 4
engine planes because of heavy demand ?
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