Re: The Folly of a Liz Cheney Independent Presidential Bid

[80%]

In article <t2kptj$3mp8r$1...@news.freedyn.de>
trumps bitch <patr...@protonmail.com> wrote:
>
> This is what happens to bitchy fat broads who stab honest men in the back.
>

A few folks, like the usually astute Quin Hillyer, argue that if
Liz Cheney wants to run for president in 2024, she must do so as
an independent. I concur that there is no realistic path to
Cheney getting the GOP nomination against Trump, either in a one-
on-one race, or in a multi-candidate field that included someone
like Florida governor Ron DeSantis. (If you’re getting blown out
in a one-on-one GOP primary in Wyoming, you’re not gonna win the
GOP presidential nomination. Maybe, if you’re lucky, you get a
respectable finish in the New Hampshire primary.)

But I am skeptical that an independent or third-party bid by
Cheney would have much of an impact at all.

Quin makes the best argument available, pointing to the “22
percent of Trump voters, some 16 million, [who] were motivated
more against eventual winner Joe Biden than for Trump. It is
from that universe of hold your nose for Trump voters from which
Cheney could draw, although she certainly wouldn’t attract all
of them.”

Yes, theoretically, Cheney could. The problem is, those 16
million or so all ended up voting for Trump anyway. They could
have voted for other candidates, who represented the longest of
longshots, but they chose not to do so. Maybe some factor like
the January 6 riot would make these people not vote for Trump in
2024. But polling and the 2022 primaries indicate those
Republicans are relatively few and far between.

The Libertarian presidential candidate isn’t a perfect
comparison, because Cheney would be better known, probably
better funded, and hold different positions on several issues.
But I think the number of ballots cast for the Libertarian
candidate gives us a sense of the portion of the electorate that
was intractably anti-Biden, and simultaneously found Trump
unacceptable. In 2020, Libertarian Jo Jorgenson got 1.18 percent
nationwide; that ranged from 2.6 percent in North Dakota to .6
percent in Mississippi. As much as people complained about the
options of Trump and Biden, 98.17 percent of Americans who voted
opted for one of the two.

It was a similar story in 2016, when Libertarian nominee Gary
Johnson did a little better, but not by much. Johnson won 3.28
percent nationwide; that ranged from 9.3 percent in Johnson’s
home state of New Mexico to 1.19 percent in Mississippi.
Separately, independent Evan McMullin won .54 percent of the
vote (a bit more than one-half of 1 percent) nationwide, ranging
from 21 percent in his home state of Utah to effective zero in
states where he wasn’t on the ballot.

Once again, as much as people complained about the lousy options
of Trump and Hillary in 2016, 94.27 percent of voters voted for
one of the two major party candidates.

When push comes to shove, roughly 94 to 98 percent of American
voters put aside their complaints and pick one of the major-
party nominees. That could change in the coming years, but I
wouldn’t bet on it.

As an independent candidate, in which state does Cheney threaten
to play spoiler? Wyoming and its three electoral votes?
Virginia, where she and her husband own a house? You really have
to squint to see a scenario where the conservative-but-anti-
Trump demographic ends up swinging a state, and leaving Biden or
Harris with the largest plurality.

Quin does offer a scenario where the threat of a Cheney
independent bid effectively strongarms Republican primary voters
into nominating someone besides Trump:

If keeping the dangerous and increasingly deranged Trump from
office again is Cheney’s main motivator, her outsider run would
thus pose more of a threat to him (if he is the Republican
nominee) than to Democrats. In fact, that might be part of her
message: Nominate Trump, and she stays on the ballot and hands
victory to Democrats; nominate someone else, and she drops out.
Such a threat might motivate just enough GOP primary voters to
consolidate around another GOP contender to provide that
contender a fighting chance against Trump.

But a scenario of metaphorical hostage-taking where Cheney
effectively threatens GOP primary voters, “Nominate DeSantis, or
I’ll run as an independent and help reelect Biden,” is a
scenario ensuring that Cheney is effectively loathed by
Republicans for the rest of her days. It also probably wouldn’t
help DeSantis much.

Everyone would know, from the get-go, that Cheney had no shot of
being sworn in at noon on January 20, 2025. If she launched an
independent bid against Trump, everyone would know she was doing
so just to ensure that the Democratic nominee won the election.
And Republicans have a word to describe a person whose primary
objective is to ensure Joe Biden or Kamala Harris or Gavin
Newsom or some other like-minded figure heads the executive
branch for the next four years. They call people like that
“Democrats.”

<https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-folly-of-a-liz-cheney-
independent-presidential-bid/>