Don't Panic - Not All Jobs Are Headed Overseas
Halcitron
Don't Panic - Not All Jobs Are Headed Overseas
By Kate Lorenz
As if there isn't enough stress on the job - unemployment fears, workplace
dissatisfaction, slashed budgets, burnout. Adding to these woes, American
workers now fear their jobs may head overseas, particularly those in the
manufacturing and technology industries.
Competition and job loss to low-wage countries are nothing new, according to
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan. In a speech to an economic conference
in London recently, Greenspan said that in the 1950s and 1960s, there was
concern that American jobs were migrating to Japan, and then to Mexico in the
1990s.
But the U.S. is losing jobs. Forrester Research Inc. predicts that American
employers will move about 3.3 million white-collar service jobs and $136
billion in wages abroad in the next 15 years. And, fears are growing that many
of the 2.8 million manufacturing jobs lost in the past three-and-a-half years
are gone forever.
Greenspan said the U.S. economy is flexible enough to replace jobs that were
lost in the last recession, but laid-off workers may need to be retrained to
qualify for new work.
There is some good news, however. There are industries that are growing - ones
that are easy to transfer skills to and transition into, as well. Take a look
at the top industries expected to grow this year as projected by
CareerBuilder.com.
<x> Healthcare
An aging population, continued advancements in the medical field, and the
growing trend in outpatient care are driving factors of the $1.2 trillion spent
on this field in 2003.
- With 12 million jobs, healthcare is the shining star of employment.
- More than 200,000 new jobs were created in just the last year, and health
services has added jobs consecutively every year since 1993, evidence that the
industry is recession proof as taking care of one's health is not an optional
item.
- Advances in technology and efforts to shorten hospital stays are reducing the
need for hands-on physician care and therefore propelling the demand for
medical assistants, nursing aides, and home health aides.
- Non-medical professionals, such as those in IT and public relations, can find
great opportunities and transition easily into the field.
[The Baby-Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are feeling their (our) age and
visiting the medical/dental professionals, and we'll be needing medical care
for a while, so that means someone will find a job in that field.
http://www.netwalk.com/~duchapl/ ]
<x> Hospitality
- Accommodations and Food Services
Americans are becoming more confident in the economy and are more willing to
travel than in previous years. This is good news for the hospitality industry,
which is getting back on its feet after experiencing a decline in the last few
years.
- According to a survey by American Express, the number of U.S. travelers
planning to spend more than $5,000 on vacation in 2004 is up nearly double from
2003, and the percentage of travelers planning to spend more than $5,000 on
vacation will nearly double, from 6 percent in 2003 to 11 percent in 2004.
- Employment in the hospitality sector edged up by 130,000 jobs last year.
- More than 10 million people are employed in accommodations and food services
in the U.S.
[When the dollar drops, tourists visit USA. They need transport, money
exchangers, lodgings, meals, guides, etc.]
<x> Sales & Marketing
Sales is an exciting and lucrative field and, like health services, is a good
area for those looking to transition skills. Many job openings will result from
the need to replace workers who switch careers or leave the labor force. And,
the increasing variety and number of goods and services to be sold will
stimulate job growth.
- An industry study showed 28 percent of those hired for sales positions came
from departments such as marketing, customer service, operations and
purchasing.
- On average, there is a 30 percent turnover rate in sales in a given company,
which means there are always openings.
- Salespeople are charged with finding the bigger, better deal for a company.
It makes sense that they apply this concept to their own careers.
[Sales moves the products and services. No matter what anyone is providing, if
someobody cannot create the desire to buy from me, then I don't do business and
make money.]
<x> Construction
Construction includes new work, additions, alterations, reconstruction,
installations, and repairs of structures. Housing starts are a good indicator
to assess demand for housing and the health of the construction industry.
- According to the mortgage company Freddie Mac, low interest rates are keeping
demand high for new homes, and an improving jobs situation should continue to
keep the housing market thriving in 2004, when 1.70 million units are
projected.
- The construction industry, which created about 150,000 jobs in 2003, accounts
for about 10 percent of establishments and about 5 percent of employment.
[ Construction includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Institutions,
Infrastructure, and TI (Tennant Improvements). General Contractors,
Sub-Contractors, Estimators, Architechs, Equipment Rentals/Sales, Trench
Shoring, Temporary power/Fences/Toilets, Catering, and the trades.]
<x> Professional and Business Services
Not all outsourcing is going overseas. Many of the activities performed in this
sector are ongoing routine support functions that all businesses and
organizations must do and have traditionally done for themselves, like waste
management or advertising.
- Recent trends, however, are to contract or purchase such services from
businesses that specialize in such activities and can, therefore, provide the
services more efficiently.
- More than 16 million people are employed in professional and business
services, which grew by 250,000 jobs last year.
- This category covers a broad spectrum that includes professional and
technical services, management of companies and enterprises, and administrative
services.
[Janitorial contractors can employ workers to enter buildings on weekends and
evenings to clean carpets and restrooms. Repair Services for copiers,
computers, faxes, etc. Networking of computers. Industry focused goods and
services, like legal forms for lawyers and doctors. Software Programming for
specific industries. Security and response. ]
Copyright 2004 CareerBuilder.com. All rights reserved. The information
contained in this article may not be published, broadcast or otherwise
distributed without prior written authority.
©
So, get to schools or training.
Start your own business-to-business service.
Learn a second language or two.
Find a niche.
caveat lector
Halcitron misc.survivalism alt.california
"Failing to prepare.... Is preparing to fail."
NRA Member since 2002
The Law of the Land, is the weapon in your hand.
Smith & Wesson starts where the Bill of Rights stop.
The rifleman
can complain about jobs going overseas, Just about every other nation on the
planet has had to buckle to US demands for free trade agreements whereby in
many cases the other nations manufacturing base has just about been wiped
out because America has insisted on and recieved the right to sell its mass
produced products cheaper than locally produced products. When ever other
countries like mine for example complained of jobs being lost because of
cheap american imports and our workers losing out, the US replied " Tough"
its capitalism at work. So now the same thing is applied to the US where
asian countrys are taking your jobs and selling goods on the US markets
cheaper than US made products and your complaining.
The US is only reaping the benefits of its of global marketing plans, just
get used to seeing your jobs go , we had to thanks to the US fair trade
plans.
Jim Dauven
manufacturing were many fold
Example
Repair of Lucas Ignitions on MG's Tr-3, 4,
took a voodoo priest not a mechanic.
The reason the british never made televisions, radios and
computers, they couldn't figure out how to make them leak
oil.
The reliability of the Gypsy Minor aircraft engine was
depended on the terrain below. I there was no place to
land the engine gave up the fight. (This is why the Dehavelane
Gypsy Moth had a bad habit of nesting in trees.)
The Rolls Royce Merlin Aircraft Engine which powered their
World War II fighter aircraft had a bad habit of quitting
in flight until the equipped them with U.S. Bendix ignition
and carbonation.
Whitworth tooling????
I could go on but why????
The Independent (who own at various times
A Jaguar
A MGB
A Trimup TR-3
A Gypsy Moth
A BSA Motorcycle
A Velocette motorcycle
The Independent (who owned and raced
The rifleman
"Jim Dauven" <jam...@web-ster.com> wrote in message
news:4034C91D...@web-ster.com...
> Oh come now lets be honest. The problems with English
> manufacturing were many fold
>
> Example
>
> Repair of Lucas Ignitions on MG's Tr-3, 4,
> took a voodoo priest not a mechanic.
Like exploding fuel tanks on pintos, exploding tyres on Explorers, like
american motorcycles period
>
> The reason the british never made televisions, radios and
> computers, they couldn't figure out how to make them leak
> oil.
Like Harley Davidsons ,We were to busy inventing them to worry about minutae
:o)
>
> The reliability of the Gypsy Minor aircraft engine was
> depended on the terrain below. I there was no place to
> land the engine gave up the fight. (This is why the Dehaveland
> Gypsy Moth had a bad habit of nesting in trees.)
Also why they are still flying today :o)
>
> The Rolls Royce Merlin Aircraft Engine which powered their
> World War II fighter aircraft had a bad habit of quitting
> in flight until the equipped them with U.S. Bendix ignition
> and carbonation.
It was a fuel injection cure over carboration the engine needed, and the
Bendix ignition system was IIRC a french system first used on Czech cars
>
> Whitworth tooling????
Harley Davidsons
>
> I could go on but why????
>
> The Independent (who own at various times
>
> A Jaguar ( mustang eater)
> A MGB ( Ugliest car ever when fitted for the US market)
> A Trimup TR-3 ( OK if fitted with a small block chevy / rover engine)
> A Gypsy Moth ( still sunk the Bismark with it)
> A BSA Motorcycle ( not as good as Triumph )
> A Velocette motorcycle ( Never had the pleasure sadly, had an Aerial Sq 4
for a month before it self destructed)
> The Independent (who owned and raced
Steve who still plays with a BSA C 15
Ghost of IT
This article is full of crap.
Most medical fields restrict the number of people who are going in for
training. This despite the predicted need of such people. This is the
same sort of hype that parallels the suppose "boom" in IT workers.
The fact that there were no restrictions on the number of IT students
and the rise of stupid colleges that churned them out is part of the
reason why hi-tech is flooded with people who work for min wage or
who are over qualified and cannot find work.
The medical people are well aware of this and are not going to free
up restrictions on who can go in to medicine and who cannot. Since most
nursing positions are restricted to nursing, and since most male
nurses here complain of the way they are considered second class
people on the job (aka no advancement - get all the crap jobs) then
there is no place for men in the entry level jobs.
There are hundreds of doctors out there now who are not allowed to
practice because only so many foriegn doctors are permitted internship
each year.
Sales jobs are returning to the days of commission base only (no even
base min wage salary). Since the economic strength and disposable income
is dropping and the price of goods is dropping then there will be no
livable income generated from this sort of work (unless you lie, cheat,
and steal of course).
Construction fields are overrun by foreigners who prefer to hire their
own (namely Sikh, Italian, or Eastern Europeans here).
Professional cleaning jobs are also overrun by foriegners.
Hospitality is already suffering cutbacks as travel is going down due
to economic troubles (not up as the media claims due to baby boomers).
Tourism also goes in cycles so even where it is boom it will typically
go to bust every 7 years or less. Most tourism jobs pay min wage as
well.
I agree finding a niche is required, but this person Kate Lorenz is a
fool. I would like to see this idiot on Lou Dobbs show so that she can
be shot down like the rest of the "experts" that have no idea what
the bottom half of the population have to face.
Joe Bramblett, KD5NRH
wrote:
><x> Healthcare
"Insourced" - they train people in the other countries, then bring
them over on work visas to work for far less than anyone here who has
had the training.
><x> Hospitality
>- Accommodations and Food Services
Same thing.
><x> Sales & Marketing
There's a lot more to sales than skill; it takes the right personality
type, and given how well it can pay, most of the people doing lower
paid jobs would be selling already if they could.
><x> Construction
Already done largely by illegals around here. They work for cash and
less than minimum wage.
Joe Bramblett, KD5NRH
kd5...@myway.com
The rifleman
> efficiently was indeed a feat more of chance than design. ;-)
>
> --
>
> Bart
Oh God twin vacuum tube and a bent linkage, the stuff of nightmares, I had
twin SUs on my Mini Coooper boosted to 1500 cc with a MG cyl head, what a
bitch to balance. Mind you still a better carb than a Holly .
Russ
wrote:
>In Message-ID:<4034C91D...@web-ster.com> posted on Thu, 19 Feb
>2004 06:33:01 -0800, Jim Dauven wrote:
>
>>Repair of Lucas Ignitions on MG's Tr-3, 4,
>>took a voodoo priest not a mechanic.
>
>Getting the two SU carburetors on my '59 TR-3 in balance and functioning
>efficiently was indeed a feat more of chance than design. ;-)
Just use a Uni-syn. I still have mine, and the jet centering tool and
choke drop gauge (two ends of one rod). Those two tools and a good
set of gaskets will keep the SUs running fine.
Russ
Spam Killer
>
>Most jobs in this field are for the low end, and the pay is not great.
Even the higher-end jobs aren't too well compensated. RNs make what? $35 an
hour? All this and more in exchange for backbreaking work, having to worry
about needlesticks, etc.
>
>> <x> Sales & Marketing
>
>Many times no minimum wage, commission only, no benefits. Sales is a damn
>hard job, is not for everyone, and who has money to spend?
>
Plus you have to deal with the flaming a-holes who tend to rise to the top of
this profession.
>> <x> Construction
>
>Around here you better habla spanish. There are a lot of illegals in the
>field for general construction. Wages for general construction have
>dropped and offer no benefits. Some of the more skilled trades are seeing
>their wages drop due to immigrants who are willing to work for less. Why
>pay more for one person when you can pay less for another.
I'll raise the ante here. Our very own Cruz Bustamante messed up big time
during the recent governors' debate by letting it slip that about 20 to 30
percent of construction jobs in the Golden State were now going to illegals.
This was part of his McArgument about illegals only doing work that U.S.
citizens wouldn't do. Yeah, right, Cruz. Those 20 to 30 percent of U.S.
construction workers whose jobs once put food on their tables are now just
tickled pink.
>
>Even in the higher tech areas the economy and the number of people
>seeking jobs are driving wages down. When you post a position and get
>several hundred resumes from all levels of the experience and
>eductaion/certification tree you get the best person you can for the
>least amount. I know people in IT that will now take a $25k per year job
>when 5 years ago they wouldn't even consider less than $60k+ per year.
I have a friend who's an IT professional with decades of experience. She
recently referred to herself as "extinct."
Frank White
canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com says...
>
>halc...@aol.comhatespam (Halcitron) wrote in
>news:20040219051351...@mb-m26.aol.com:
>>
>>
>> Don't Panic - Not All Jobs Are Headed Overseas
>>
>>
>> By Kate Lorenz
>>
>
>Most jobs in this field are for the low end, and the pay is not great.
>
>
>
>Ever see what someone at Holidy Inn makes? Cleaning staff are low paid,
>many are illegals. Unless you're a mamage of several hotels you're not
>going to make much more than $30k. Cooks, waiters, etc are low paid in
>most cases. Benefits depend on your position, low position little to no
>benefits.
>
>
>> <x> Sales & Marketing
>
>Many times no minimum wage, commission only, no benefits. Sales is a damn
>hard job, is not for everyone, and who has money to spend?
>
>
>
>Around here you better habla spanish. There are a lot of illegals in the
>field for general construction. Wages for general construction have
>dropped and offer no benefits. Some of the more skilled trades are seeing
>their wages drop due to immigrants who are willing to work for less. Why
>pay more for one person when you can pay less for another.
>
>
>
>immigrants (legal and illegal) are driving down the wages. An average
>worker in much of this area get's paid around the $8 to $10 per hour
>wage. Much of this area requires little more than on the job training,
>immigrants and young workers rule this section as far as workers go.
>
>Even in the higher tech areas the economy and the number of people
>seeking jobs are driving wages down. When you post a position and get
>several hundred resumes from all levels of the experience and
>eductaion/certification tree you get the best person you can for the
>least amount. I know people in IT that will now take a $25k per year job
>when 5 years ago they wouldn't even consider less than $60k+ per year.
>pay $10 to $13 per hour, or pay a flat rate for each service call.
>
>The sheer number of people looking for work or another employer does have
>an effect as the pool of people availabel is much greater than the jobs.
>IT is starting to turn around, companies are starting to consider and
>start upgrading the equipment they put in place for Y2K and is now 4 to 6
>years old. Contracts are starting to pick up, and hopefully the demand
>and pay for contractors will increase as well.
Wall Street Journal had an article today, about a furniture
making company (the same one making the new 'Humphrey Bogart'
collection) and how it was outsourcing more and more of its
business to Chinese factories. AND closing down more and
more of its American factories. The focus was on one of
them that hasn't been closed, and how the factory manager is
struggling to keep it that way by increasing productivity
and quality output. He's enlisted his workers to suggest
how they can do more, faster; he's had newer, more
efficient machinery brought in from the closed factories to
modernized his production; he's changed system flow and
improved design to make everything go faster and smoother:
And he's kept the factory open. So far. The company
managers are trying to cut him as much slack as possible
because they don't want to lose the skilled workers at the
factory; but they're in competition with all other furniture
makers in America AND China, and their bottom line IS the
bottom line. If they don't cut costs to the max, EVERYBODY
may lose their jobs, not just the folks in one factory.
Free trade is SO beneficial...
FW
Spam Killer
>may lose their jobs, not just the folks in one factory.
Henry Ford once said, "I want to make cars my workers can afford to buy." Or
words to that effect. He must be rolling in his grave.
Robert Sturgeon
(Frank White) wrote:
(explanation of the need to cut costs, snipped)
>The company
>managers are trying to cut him as much slack as possible
>because they don't want to lose the skilled workers at the
>factory; but they're in competition with all other furniture
>makers in America AND China, and their bottom line IS the
>bottom line. If they don't cut costs to the max, EVERYBODY
>may lose their jobs, not just the folks in one factory.
>
>Free trade is SO beneficial...
Yes, it is. It makes furniture more affordable, among other
things. This means people can buy more furniture, and more
of everything else, thus improving their lives. Only those
who oppose improved lives would oppose free trade. It is
apparently true that those Americans who make furniture will
earn less money. Why is it a Good Thing for the makers of
furniture to have more money and the buyers of furniture to
have less? It is like the anti-Wal*Mart people who prefer
that the sellers of goods have more money and the buyers of
goods have less. How is the nation's total wealth improved
by artificially boosting the incomes of the sellers of goods
while artificially decreasing the wealth of buyers of goods?
--
Robert Sturgeon,
proud member of the vast right wing conspiracy
and the evil gun culture.
Robert Sturgeon
(Spam Killer) wrote:
He didn't mean he wanted to boost his workers' pay so they
could buy the cars. He meant he wanted to cut the costs of
production so much that even those who made them could
afford to buy them. He paid his workers top dollar because
he needed to - to keep his factories operating efficiently.
He wasn't being philanthropic, nor was he trying to increase
car sales by selling them to his own overpaid workers. He
was a hard-nosed SOB, not a damned fool.
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
"Canuck In Denver" <canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote
| > <x> Construction
|
| Around here you better habla spanish. There are a lot of illegals in the
| field for general construction. Wages for general construction have
| dropped and offer no benefits. Some of the more skilled trades are seeing
| their wages drop due to immigrants who are willing to work for less. Why
| pay more for one person when you can pay less for another.
It gets even more insidious. Down in Omaha, "A Large Construction
Corporation" hires illegals as 1099 employees (private contractors), and
said "employees" are responsible for withholding, Social Security, and
so forth.
And no one seems to care or notice - as long as they have their
(poorly built) 235 homes, the NFL on TV, and beer in the fridge.
That may come crashing down one of these days...
73,
S.L.
---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.576 / Virus Database: 365 - Release Date: 1/30/04
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
"Spam Killer" <shaqui...@aol.comdeadspam> wrote
| I'll raise the ante here. Our very own Cruz Bustamante messed up big time
| during the recent governors' debate by letting it slip that about 20 to 30
| percent of construction jobs in the Golden State were now going to
illegals.
| This was part of his McArgument about illegals only doing work that U.S.
| citizens wouldn't do. Yeah, right, Cruz. Those 20 to 30 percent of U.S.
| construction workers whose jobs once put food on their tables are now just
| tickled pink.
I grew up in a community in Eastern Iowa which (in the 70s) had plenty of
(union) labor work. Take meatpacking - not a walk in the park type of job,
but in the 80s, the illegals started coming in, and in a 3 year period,
starting
wages went down from $11.50 an hour to $8.75. Back in the 70s, most folks
started around $13.00 an hour - a fair - to - good middle class income then.
Guys could work for 30 years, then retire. In the late 90s, the company
that
owned the plant (Farmland Foods) closed the plant because it was "outdated."
They opened brand new plants in other states closer to the illegals...and
the song
and dance continues.
A way of life is dying.
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
"Frank White" <fwhite*NOSPAM*@colfax.com> wrote:
| Wall Street Journal had an article today, about a furniture
| making company (the same one making the new 'Humphrey Bogart'
| collection) and how it was outsourcing more and more of its
| business to Chinese factories. AND closing down more and
| more of its American factories. The focus was on one of
| them that hasn't been closed, and how the factory manager is
| struggling to keep it that way by increasing productivity
| and quality output. He's enlisted his workers to suggest
| how they can do more, faster; he's had newer, more
| efficient machinery brought in from the closed factories to
| modernized his production; he's changed system flow and
| improved design to make everything go faster and smoother:
| And he's kept the factory open. So far. The company
| managers are trying to cut him as much slack as possible
| because they don't want to lose the skilled workers at the
| factory; but they're in competition with all other furniture
| makers in America AND China, and their bottom line IS the
| bottom line. If they don't cut costs to the max, EVERYBODY
| may lose their jobs, not just the folks in one factory.
|
| Free trade is SO beneficial...
|
| FW
My wife and I bought a dining room set from Nebraska
Furniture Mart in Omaha. We thought Ashley was an
American company. Brought the set home, looked at
the underside...."Made in China." Visited a furniture
store called "Amish Oak Furniture," also in Omaha....I
had to "make water," and went into the storeroom / warehouse
area in the back where the john is located, and witnessed
hundreds and hundreds of boxes labeled "Made in China."
When will the madness end?
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
"Spam Killer" <shaqui...@aol.comdeadspam> wrote in message
news:20040221000813...@mb-m01.aol.com...
How many Mexicans / Chinese / Vietnamese can afford a Ford Taurus today?
"Free Trade," my ass.
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
"Robert Sturgeon" <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
|
| Yes, it is. It makes furniture more affordable, among other
| things.
Bullshit. If I'm unemployed, what sort of furniture can I buy?
Gunner
<7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>"Robert Sturgeon" <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>|
>| Yes, it is. It makes furniture more affordable, among other
>| things.
>
>Bullshit. If I'm unemployed, what sort of furniture can I buy?
>
>73,
>
>S.L.
>
How much are aluminum cans selling for in your area?
Gunner
"To be civilized is to restrain the ability to commit mayhem.
To be incapable of committing mayhem is not the mark of the civilized,
merely the domesticated." - Trefor Thomas
Gunner
<7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>"Spam Killer" <shaqui...@aol.comdeadspam> wrote in message
>news:20040221000813...@mb-m01.aol.com...
>| >If they don't cut costs to the max, EVERYBODY
>| >may lose their jobs, not just the folks in one factory.
>|
>| Henry Ford once said, "I want to make cars my workers can afford to buy."
>Or
>| words to that effect. He must be rolling in his grave.
>
>How many Mexicans / Chinese / Vietnamese can afford a Ford Taurus today?
>"Free Trade," my ass.
>
>73,
>
>S.L.
Given the huge number of Mexican/Chinese/Vietnamese driving such in
Southern California..Id have to say a shit load can.
Gunner
<G>
William
> Don't Panic - Not All Jobs Are Headed Overseas
Any keyboard job can be shipped overseas, including engineering (CAD),
XRAY and MRI analysis/interpretation.
Unless they have robotic heavy equipment, bulldozer and crane
operators may still have a future.
The rest will be burger flippers and Walmart greeters.
William
> This article is full of crap.
>
> Most medical fields restrict the number of people who are going in for
> training. This despite the predicted need of such people.
Do you want health care costs to increase or don't you?
This is the
> same sort of hype that parallels the suppose "boom" in IT workers.
> The fact that there were no restrictions on the number of IT students
> and the rise of stupid colleges that churned them out is part of the
> reason why hi-tech is flooded with people who work for min wage or
> who are over qualified and cannot find work.
JUNO: web hosting $7.95 a month.
> The medical people are well aware of this and are not going to free
> up restrictions on who can go in to medicine and who cannot. Since most
> nursing positions are restricted to nursing, and since most male
> nurses here complain of the way they are considered second class
> people on the job (aka no advancement - get all the crap jobs) then
> there is no place for men in the entry level jobs.
Put on a skirt.
> There are hundreds of doctors out there now who are not allowed to
> practice because only so many foriegn doctors are permitted internship
> each year.
Maybe why there are so many perscription accindents. Can't read the
writing or understand the language.
> Sales jobs are returning to the days of commission base only (no even
> base min wage salary). Since the economic strength and disposable income
> is dropping and the price of goods is dropping then there will be no
> livable income generated from this sort of work (unless you lie, cheat,
> and steal of course).
Isn't that the definition of a car salesman?
> Construction fields are overrun by foreigners who prefer to hire their
> own (namely Sikh, Italian, or Eastern Europeans here).
You could turn the Stop/Go sign at road construction zones.
> Professional cleaning jobs are also overrun by foriegners.
Convenience stores and hotels.
> Hospitality is already suffering cutbacks as travel is going down due
> to economic troubles (not up as the media claims due to baby boomers).
> Tourism also goes in cycles so even where it is boom it will typically
> go to bust every 7 years or less. Most tourism jobs pay min wage as
> well.
We bought a tent and an ice chest.
> I agree finding a niche is required, but this person Kate Lorenz is a
> fool. I would like to see this idiot on Lou Dobbs show so that she can
> be shot down like the rest of the "experts" that have no idea what
> the bottom half of the population have to face.
We have been overrun.
Tim May
<billy...@juno.com> wrote:
Here's an article I sent off this morning to a mailing list made up of
some of the brightest programmers I know. A few names have been
replaced with pseudonyms, for their protection:
--begin forwarded article--
Most of these comments all support the basic point: programming is not
an easy, or "blue collar," job, and attempts to teach programming to
folks who really are better-suited to be welders or auto mechanics or
seamstresses (for the PC, "sewpersons") are probably doomed. Just
yesterday there was a news item (Yahoo) about the financial collapse of
a bunch of "technical schools" which purported to teach their students
how to get high-paying jobs in the burgeoning field of Web page
development!! (Not too surprisingly, most of the students didn't get
interesting or well-paying jobs, and this was only partly because of
the dot bombs.)
Larry's point: "Before you get them to university, stuff them with
years of doing
geometric proofs. Works wonders." goes to the heart of the issue. (I
loved geometry, did very well in it, and the lessons I learned from it
I use every day. One of my earliest exposures to programming was c.
1967 when my _excellent_ 10th grade geometry teacher told us about how
a computer had discovered a brand-new proof of triangle similarity,
using a truly "out of the box" approach...I didn't catch the name then,
but I later surmised he was talking about one of David Gelernter's
geometry theorem-provers, which were developed in the early 1960s.)
My strong belief is that poor students make poor programmers. (Poor
students in the sense of ability to learn, not the grades they get...I
know a bunch of very smart programmers, many of them presenting code
this weekend at CodeCon in San Francisco, who never went to college.
Some dropped out of high school. But they were still quick learners,
i.e., good students.)
Good programmers really are mathematicians of a sort. Understanding
logic and how to think are crucial stages (the point John Stenhart made
about "I've been volunteering to teach "computer science" in my local
high school. The course that I've designed is along the lines of
"Learning to think using computers as an excuse." It's been a real
adventure because, at least where I live, kids don't learn how to think
in school.")
If students don't know even how to frame a simple argument, how to
consider alternatives, how to refute or falsify assumptions, it's
pretty hopeless to try to train them to be Java or PHP programmers.
Maybe doing cookie-cutter Web pages, but nothing very substantial and
nothing with much of a future. (As the many "Webmasters" at companies
discovered in the late 90s, when Web page creation tools got more
sophisticated; turned out that memorizing a bunch of HTML wasn't
needed.)
Overheard many times at the local malls:
"Like, you know, and then she goes "Huh?", and then I go "Way!", and it
was, like, weird!. And then I was like _so_..."
This doesn't translate well into computerese. Not the words, and
especially not the stream-of-consciousness mental process. (I read an
analysis of this kind of valspeak, and its isomorphic ghettospeak
versions, with the conclusion that many of today's kids are "replaying
movies in their head," hence the blow-by-blow recitation of what people
said, in fragmentary form. Logic, summaries, induction, deduction, and
analysis are mostly absent from their speech.
I have virtually no hope for 95% of today's high school graduates in
terms of their involvement in technology. And while exporting
programming to India isn't the full solution, it's a start: at least
their high school graduates are for the most part solidly trained in
the things a programmer needs--and not just math and logic: also
rhetoric, grammar, understanding the parts of speech, etc., are all
variants of the formalist, logical approach.
(I've talked to a lot of those at Intel who are rapidly moving software
and even design jobs to India and China. My old boss, Craig Barrett,
has been warning of these problems for _years_. Many high schools would
rather be babysitters for gang bangers and teach fluffy stuff about
lesbian sex and "tolerance" than teach the "logic and rhetoric" core.
Which means a lot of programming and design jobs are going to be moving
out of the U.S.)
For the truly gifted, which I think nearly all Programmer's Conference
attendees are, things should be bright, especially with powerful tool,
languages, and machines leveraging the innate capabilities. But for
"Joe Average programmer," things don't look so bright. And the
prospects for teaching those who can't think, in Jon's analysis, the
prospects are grim.
(The community colleges are mostly a total joke. I see the syllabi (in
plain speak, the courses) from my local JCs, notably Cabrillo College
and UFO (University of Fort Ord, aka Cal State Monterey Bay) and they
are travesties. The computer courses are crammed with the "trade
school" junk about learning to be a Certified Microsoft Windows
Technician. Some of these students may in fact get jobs helping local
businesses figure out how to insert the CD-ROM into their PCs, but
mostly the training is scut work, almost guaranteed to be obsolete in a
few years when the Next Big Thing appears...then I guess they go back
for night school retraining in "How to be a Certified Microsoft
Longhorn Security Installer.")
As a welfare state nation, we are reaping what we have sown. The
dumbing-down of education has been successful.
It's going to be interesting to see where we are in 20 years, when
today's illiterates are the tax-paying core earners who are expected to
pay for the retirement of the largest generation in American history,
the Boomers.
--Tim May
Robert Sturgeon
<7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>"Robert Sturgeon" <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>|
>| Yes, it is. It makes furniture more affordable, among other
>| things.
>
>Bullshit. If I'm unemployed, what sort of furniture can I buy?
After you find some other way of earning money? Who knows?
Maybe more. But if you decide that you have the right to
make furniture, even though no one is willing to pay you to
make furniture, and so refuse to find some other way of
earning money - not much. Your call.
Robert Sturgeon
<7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
(snips)
>| Free trade is SO beneficial...
>|
>| FW
>
>My wife and I bought a dining room set from Nebraska
>Furniture Mart in Omaha. We thought Ashley was an
>American company. Brought the set home, looked at
>the underside...."Made in China." Visited a furniture
>store called "Amish Oak Furniture," also in Omaha....I
>had to "make water," and went into the storeroom / warehouse
>area in the back where the john is located, and witnessed
>hundreds and hundreds of boxes labeled "Made in China."
>
>When will the madness end?
What madness? Your snooping around in the back rooms of
stores? Whenever you choose to stop. The Chinese doing a
better/cheaper job of making furniture? Who knows?
Robert Sturgeon
<7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
>"Canuck In Denver" <canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote
>| > <x> Construction
>|
>| Around here you better habla spanish. There are a lot of illegals in the
>| field for general construction. Wages for general construction have
>| dropped and offer no benefits. Some of the more skilled trades are seeing
>| their wages drop due to immigrants who are willing to work for less. Why
>| pay more for one person when you can pay less for another.
>
>It gets even more insidious. Down in Omaha, "A Large Construction
>Corporation" hires illegals as 1099 employees (private contractors), and
>said "employees" are responsible for withholding, Social Security, and
>so forth.
The evasion of employment taxes and liability, poorly
camouflaged as self-employment, is the coming thing.
>And no one seems to care or notice - as long as they have their
>(poorly built) 235 homes, the NFL on TV, and beer in the fridge.
>
>That may come crashing down one of these days...
Why? The government has put such high burdens on the
employment model that people are finding ways around it. By
doing so, they are improving the U.S. economy, not harming
it.
William
>
> It's going to be interesting to see where we are in 20 years, when
> today's illiterates are the tax-paying core earners who are expected to
> pay for the retirement of the largest generation in American history,
> the Boomers.
>
> --Tim May
If only the boomers had stuck to their pledge, "Hope I die before I
grow old." Instead they're trying to live forever.
Frank White
says...
Well, yeah, that's the way it's supposed to work in theory.
Trouble is, theory isn't reality. And in reality, the
laid off workers are spending less money, even if they
can get other jobs (usually lower paid service sector
jobs; here are skilled workers at their peak earning and
productive years being in effect disabled by the system),
thereby depressing economic activity. All those closed
factories are doing the same, to a much wider effect.
And while the THEORY is that the slack will be taken up
by increased sales here and overseas, the REALITY turns
out that there are only so many things you can sell in
the U.S. before the market is sated, and that many
countries have such strong protective barriers than the
new, cheaper stuff can't get in, at least not without
have massive expense added to the price. The over all
effect is that, in pursuit of a theory, the U.S. is
exporting a great deal of its economic strength with
NO - and I mean ABSOLUTELY no - assurance that it will
ever come back.
Even many free traders are geting concerned at the speed
and depth to which this is happening, according to the
Wall Street Journal. And are starting to say 'Whoa."
Trouble is, the Bush administration has the bit between
its teeth on this, and isn't about to slow down. Just
like in Iraq.
And we all know how well that turned out...
FW
Robert Sturgeon
<canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>news:suuf3014s6odf8squ...@4ax.com:
>
>
>>>
>>>Bullshit. If I'm unemployed, what sort of furniture can I buy?
>>
>> After you find some other way of earning money? Who knows?
>> Maybe more. But if you decide that you have the right to
>> make furniture, even though no one is willing to pay you to
>> make furniture, and so refuse to find some other way of
>> earning money - not much. Your call.
> and the evil gun culture.
>
>The problem I have with this, Robert, is that jobs of all types are
>disappearing over seas to outsourcing or the average wage is dropping.
Yes, jobs are disappearing and wages might be (I don't have
the figures, but I'll cede the point, because it really
doesn't matter) dropping. Your problem is that you're
seeing the world as a place of jobs and wages. It isn't.
At least not necessarily.
(personal story, snipped)
>I know many people in this same position. But that's the way economies
>work, there are good times and there are bad times. Normally when the
>good times roll around better paying jobs become available.
Not this time.
> The problem
>with the current "recovery" is that more and more jobs are going
>overseas, other jobs are remaining at low wage levels. I read an article
>earlier today that said the average wage had dropped from around $45k per
>year in 2001 to around $35k per year in 2003. I'd say that's a rather
>significant drop in income.
For wage earners? Perhaps. But income from all sources is
not dropping.
>Production costs are dropping, but are prices? Not really. Prices are
>staying about the same. Peoples wages are also dropping. When wages drop
>people tend to spend less, when people spend less they buy less, when
>people buy less companies sell less, when companies sell less they
>produce less, when companies produce less they employ less, when
>companies employ less they need less services, when less services are
>needed less service employees are needed, when less employees are needed
>more people are unemploed, when unemployment rises companies sell less,
>when companies sell less they produce less, when companies produce less
>they employ less... Basic economics.
You're still stuck in the "wages = income" paradigm. It is
becoming obsolete. The economy is changing, albeit slowly,
to a more entrepreneurial, self-employed economy where
employees are no longer seen as an asset to a company but
instead are correctly seen as liabilities. No one will
voluntarily take on the liabilities inherent in the
employment model if they can get their work done without it.
And they can.
Assuming you have a residence and you want someone else to
do your landscape maintenance, would you take on an employee
to do it, or engage a landscape service? Would you fill out
all those forms, get workers' compensation insurance, pay SS
and Medicare taxes, go through all that rigmarole? Of
course not, because you don't need to. And if you become
dissatisfied with your landscape service and decide to
switch to another, will you face a wrongful termination
suit? No, you just make a couple of phone calls and the
change is done. Why do you think a business won't come to
the same conclusion, based on the same facts and incentives?
The secret is to be the landscape service provider instead
of the fellow applying for the job of company lawn
mower/tree trimmer, because they don't HAVE a company lawn
mower/tree trimmer. And even if you think they SHOULD have
one, they aren't going to do it.
You have to adapt to the economy because it isn't going to
adapt to you.
>The problem is that the jobs are simply not returning for any number of
>reasons. What jobs there are have seen wages lowered. The purchasing
>power of Americans is weakening and will further drive costs down, and
>this includes wages again. It's a rather vicious circle.
Nope. Wages may be declining (I don't know), but income is
not. The vicious circle doesn't exist. People are earning
more money while spending less, due to the efficiencies
brought on by the Wal*Mart-ization of America. But if you
can only think of your earning power as a function of the
wages you can earn, you may be in big trouble. You have put
yourself in the "wages" box. You should consider thinking
outside that particular box, because, as you correctly see
it, that box is getting smaller.
>The average worker, who is also the average consumer, has a certain range
>of jobs he or she can do and many of those are going overseas. The
>economy is changing very quickly, too quickly for many to adapt to it.
We have no choice but to adapt to the changes. Trying to
stop them is both costly and pointless, since it can't be
done. Oh, it COULD be done if we could reverse the trends
of the 20th Century - getting rid of the minimum wage, OSHA,
labor unions, unemployment insurance, Social Security and
Medicare, wrongful termination suits, sexual harassment
suits, all the other costs that governments at all levels
have piled onto the employment model. But we know that
isn't going to happen, don't we? So companies are getting
rid of those costs by getting rid of employees.
>Wages are dropping according to the government, wish I could find that
>article again. There are only so many jobs out there, so only so many
>people are going to be able to make a change in their career. Telling
>someone that all they need to do is to find another way to make a living
>is overly simplistic and ignores the realities of the current economy and
>trend in jobs.
Telling people whose earnings are declining due to economic
changes that they have to find other ways to earn money is
just telling them the truth. Doing anything else is
ignoring "the realities of the current economy and trend in
jobs." The reality is that a job as a way of earning money
is not the only way - it is not even the best way, even if
the job model wasn't in a state of decline.
>The question is when is the downward spiral going to stop?
This downward spiral, if it exists at all, is in the job
market. So don't be in it.
Robert Sturgeon
(Frank White) wrote:
If your theory was correct, the U.S. economy would be in a
state of decline. But it's not. Factory production may be
in a state of decline. Jobs may be in a state of decline.
The U.S. economy is not made up solely of factories and
factory jobs.
>Even many free traders are geting concerned at the speed
>and depth to which this is happening, according to the
>Wall Street Journal. And are starting to say 'Whoa."
No real free traders are. FTINOs maybe, but not real ones.
>Trouble is, the Bush administration has the bit between
>its teeth on this, and isn't about to slow down. Just
>like in Iraq.
>
>And we all know how well that turned out...
How it turned out? It's over already? I've GOT to start
watching more TV news.
Robert Sturgeon
<canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>news:28vf305q5539h98am...@4ax.com:
>
>
>> The evasion of employment taxes and liability, poorly
>> camouflaged as self-employment, is the coming thing.
>
>Yep. The company I work for is getting sued by around a thousand
>employees for this. Should get real ugly, people are talking RICO Act and
>personally naming managers, corporate officers, the major venture capital
>company that owns the company, the VC company's partners. I was a REAL
>contractor for years in the IT industry, I told my managers that what
>they were doing was illegal, they chose to ignore what I said... pity for
>them as people are talking naming managers personally in the class action
>and civil suits.
If the fake contractor economy is destroyed by lawsuits,
they'll go to real contractors. But they won't go back to
having employees in the numbers they used to have.
Employees are just too expensive compared to contractors.
>Given the outcry over outsourcing in the IT field and who my employer has
>contracts with and what those companies have done as far as outsourcing
>and it could become a media feeding frenzy.
If it does, it will only speed up the move to real
contractors.
Robert Sturgeon
<canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>news:0ruh30hvn9nv0lgut...@4ax.com:
>
>
>
>> If the fake contractor economy is destroyed by lawsuits,
>> they'll go to real contractors. But they won't go back to
>> having employees in the numbers they used to have.
>> Employees are just too expensive compared to contractors.
>
>Yes, employees are more expensive than contractors and employers will go
>the route of contractors. That's not necessarily a bag thing. There are
>mnay advantages to being a real contractor.
>
>> If it does, it will only speed up the move to real
>> contractors.
>
>That is a good thing. Real contractors have the ability to file their
>taxes properly, employees misclassified as contractors often find that
>they are unable to file their taxes properly.
What's stopping them now?
> Real contractors also have
>more power over the relationship between the employing/contracting
>company and the contractor.
Both real contractors and fake contractors have exactly the
same power - the power to say "no."
Frank White
says...
It is an interlocking network of elements, each functioning
in relation to the others.
Now many of those elements are being removed from the net.
The overall effect of that probably can't be good.
At the moment, though, whether the economy is in decline or
not is unclear because it's an election year, and Dubya has
pumped so much stimulus in that even if it were moribund
the economy would be up dancing the Charleston non-stop...
>>Even many free traders are geting concerned at the speed
>>and depth to which this is happening, according to the
>>Wall Street Journal. And are starting to say 'Whoa."
>
>No real free traders are. FTINOs maybe, but not real ones.
There is being convinced as to the correctness of a
position. And then there is being such a zealot that
you charge ahead regardless of if it causes your
destruction or not because you refuse to consider the
possibility that you might be wrong..
With the U.S. lowering its trade barriers, and almost
no one else doing so sifgnificantly, we are as good
as holding up a sign inviting people to steal us blind.
>>Trouble is, the Bush administration has the bit between
>>its teeth on this, and isn't about to slow down. Just
>>like in Iraq.
>>
>>And we all know how well that turned out...
>
>How it turned out? It's over already? I've GOT to start
>watching more TV news.
That would be good. Being informed is necessary to
having reasonable, wiable opinions.
^_^
FW
Robert Sturgeon
(Frank White) wrote:
(snips)
>>>Trouble is, the Bush administration has the bit between
>>>its teeth on this, and isn't about to slow down. Just
>>>like in Iraq.
>>>
>>>And we all know how well that turned out...
>>
>>How it turned out? It's over already? I've GOT to start
>>watching more TV news.
>
>That would be good. Being informed is necessary to
>having reasonable, wiable opinions.
Then we woth need to watch more.
Robert Sturgeon
<canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>news:diki3015s3pr591cf...@4ax.com:
>
>>
>>>That is a good thing. Real contractors have the ability to file their
>>>taxes properly, employees misclassified as contractors often find that
>>>they are unable to file their taxes properly.
>>
>> What's stopping them now?
>
>For some I know, their CPA. When you go to get your taxes done and your
>CPA looks at you and says "I can't help you, you're not a contractor,
>you're an employee.
Perhaps, but if so they are doing something, maybe several
somethings, wrong.
> Without a W2 and a record of the with holdings by
>your employer I can't file this without both of us violating US tax
>laws." there's not much you can do. This ends up in not filing taxes and
>the need to sue the company that misclassified you from employee to
>contractor, fake contractor. Which is where many employees at a few IT
>companies are currently sitting.
I'd guess they need to be a little more savvy about how to
run their own businesses. If what they do looks exactly
like regular employment, but without the employment forms
and taxes, they are doing it incorrectly. To start with,
they'd do better to have a corporation and have it pay them
from the proceeds of the billing they do to the company to
which they are providing services. Since their
offices/places of business are in their homes, even the
commuting costs are deductible - in the company car, of
course. :-) And they need to be providing their services to
more than one company, even if it is only one company at a
time. If they really are employees, but without the
paperwork, they aren't quite "getting it."
I understand this is a difficult concept for most people
because they really want a job, not a business. But the
thing is, the jobs are much more difficult to get because
they are much more expensive for companies to pay for,
taking into account the risks involved in employing people.
We can sit around grousing about the jobless recovery, or we
can look beyond that and figure out WHY it's a jobless
recovery, and react accordingly. Complaining about greedy
corporations won't do any good. It is the very nature of
corporations to be greedy. Save that sermon for Sunday
School, because that's the only place it'll play. Even if
Kerry gets elected President, companies still won't be
willing to hire more people than they absolutely need to get
the work done. In fact, Kerry's policies (whatever they
are) would probably make companies even less willing to hire
people. I assume he'd push for even more taxes, regulations
and mandates - perhaps something like Hilary! Care,
mandating that employers provide health insurance.
Bob G
<canuck_in_denver@.yahoo.com> wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote in
>news:huqh30lm8f3kk26kl...@4ax.com:
>
>
>Found the article I was referring to. Two quotes just to back up what I
>was saying:
>
>http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=37236
>
>"What may not be understood is that 2.5 million Americans have lost their
>jobs since 2001"
>
>and
>
>"Indeed the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average
>salary for U.S. workers has fallen from $44,570 to $35,410 since 2001,
>with nearly 5 million Americans working at part-time employment to make
>ends meet."
>
Chuckle, Geez, you give me a headache trying to find source data for
what you post. <G>
I do not consider the World Net Daily as source data. Nor any
newspaper, news reporter, TV news report, etc.
Generally speaking I find that the press, in all it's incarnations,
tends to ummm ... twist the truth a mite to spice up an article. Thus
to get more audience, and to thereby get more money for their own
pockets.
I get curious because the last paragraph you quoted above does not
match other data from the BLS. i.e. Their publically available yearly
reports on the average hourly wage, nationwide. Check their site if
you don't believe me. The info is there.
For that matter, it doesn't agree with individual state reporting of
average wages.
Nor much else.
I don't track national employment and hourly wages much, I do track
Minnesota's figures. And as that $44,570 was WAYYY the heck off the
mark for Minnesota, which does well economically, I got to wondering.
I found that where World Net Daily got the particular numbers they
quoted from was NOT the BLS directly. Because I checked, trust me.
The numbers came from the EPI (Economic Policy Institute).
Wasn't immediate for me to discover this as World Net Daily's article
which you quote is misleading. Stating that the numbers came from the
BLS. I checked the BLS site repeatedly, looking at their historical
summaries, and so forth. Nope, nada, nothing which looked like the
figures quoted in the article.
Finally just did a Google search using those numbers and the term
wage. Bingo. Multiple references. All doing something the World Net
Daily did not bother to do. Quoting their actual source of the data.
Which was the EPI. So I checked their site.
Bingo, again. I find the original article, report, which gave those
numbers.
And note that EPI did not get those final numbers directly from the
BLS. They analyzed source data from the BLS, and came up with their
own summary.
Which is fine. Nor do I question their numbers or their result. It's
probably accurate.
BUT .... it would appear that World Net Daily forgot to mention what
the EPI .... REALLY ... stated in their report and summary.
What that summary is, and what those numbers refer to is the average
wage in PARTICULAR types of jobs which are on the decline used to pay.
As compared to the average of the PARTICULAR jobs which are now
hiring.
It IS NOT a summary of ALL US wages and average wages.
FWIW, Canuck, the growing job sector, the sector which is hiring most
and growing fastest ... the one which the number $35,410 refers to ...
is in fact paying less than the sector of jobs which is declining
fastest ... the one which the number $44,570 refers to.
But checking those numbers against BLS data directly, and not relying
on BS statements on Blogs and questionable "News" organizations gives
interesting results.
And that is that the fastest growing job sector ... yah know ... that
Bad, Evil ... we're gonna all starve ! sector ... is in fact paying
what is roughly the average for ALL Americans currently.
Which BTW, according to the BLS summaries and annual reports is UP a
pretty fair amount from 1998, for instance.
So what it'd seem to be more accurate to say, as compared to what the
World Net Daily said, is that certain jobs which used to pay more than
most folks made in the first place, are being replaced with jobs that
pay roughly what most folks in the US have been making all along.
Which is not a good thing for the folks who lost the higher paying
jobs. But it is not a disaster, either, on the national level.
It'd also be fair to say that on average, the average wage earner in
the US is making more per hour now than in 1998. According to the
BLS.
That last would seem to jive, roughly, with other figures. Which
indicates that buying power for the average person is up a little. A
'tiny' amount, but up. In one report. Down, a tiny amount, in
another report.
Checking, I see that average wages, for all jobs not just a selected
group, are up over the past but are offset by increased cost of
living. Food, housing, etc are down in cost, as a percentage of
income. BUT ... Health Care costs and energy costs (fuel for vehicles
and to heat homes) are up and eating away at wage gains.
This also jives with my personal observations and discussions I have
with friends and acquaintances. So the data from the BLS I looked at
to draw my conclusion seems to fit real world observation.
One note, always be leary of small numbers. As refers to changes
being reported. If you read the BLS web site carefully, or for
instance the Minnesota Workforce Labor Market publications:
http://www.mnwfc.org/lmi/public.htm
(Check out info on the tabs on the left)
You'll note that both sites warn that the datasets available are far
from 100% comprehensive. Information gathered is from surveys of a
selected number of businesses and/or households. As compared to
actual hard copy data. As there is no such thing as actually asking
every household, or every business for complete, hard and fast,
numbers, with proof to back up the numbers. That sort of reporting
system simply does not exist. Never has.
So at best, all numbers are educated "best guesses". Statistically
checked to see if the results at least come close to what hard data is
available. And it does come close. But fractional percentage points
this way and that, and even one or two whole percentage points this
way and that ... have to be taken with a grain of salt. The system
just isn't that accurate.
i.e. There is a difference between the employment survey which is
gotten by getting monthly reports from selected businesses (not all of
them are asked, only selected ones) as to how many folks they've got
on the payroll on a specific day of the month. And it's a specific
day, only one. I forget which one, it's been a while since I read
about it. But, for instance, it might be the 12th day of the month.
And that's all that's reported. All of those surveyed report how many
folks were on their payroll on the 12th day of each month.
This alone leads to some -minor- errors. ie The guy who started work
on the 12th day of that month wouldn't be reported in all liklihood.
I know I have hired a guy who started on a particular day. But it
took a while before our Human Resources department ever picked up on
that fact officially. As in, had him down in their database.
Chuckle, might even be a while before I remember to tell them. Has
happened before. Last guy I hired, as a matter of fact. I decided I
wanted him, had him fill out the minimum forms, gave the rest to him
and told him to get them back to me sometime when he'd had a chance to
fill em out. Punched in his data into our security database myself
and printed out for him, on the spot, an ID card which doubled as an
access card for the doors. Registered the code for his card and his
vitals with the security computer. Walked him over to payroll and
made sure they had the info they needed so he'd get paid on time.
Very important. Went over to the vehicle manager and got him issued a
truck. Over to the tool crib and got him issued tools and such.
Issued him a company owned Nextel phone. Handed him a piece of paper
on which I'd scrawled a name, Nextel number, and address. This was
the info for his first job. He was to go there and meet with one of
my other guys who'd show him what to do and start training him. And
off he went.
Chuckle, wasn't til a couple weeks later that I got a nasty gram via
email from Human Resources bitching me out because I forgot all about
telling them there was a new employee. And, BTW, where were the forms
THEY needed so they could enter him in their records.
Geez, when I retired out of the Navy I went to work for a major
telecom and was working there for over 3 months before Human Reources
ever realized I was employed there. They didn't notice til I called
them and asked why I'd not got the usual employee welcome package,
info on bennies, etc from them.
A different emploment and wage status, used to compile numbers is
gathered from household surveys.
Those numbers vary significantly from the business survey. Some of
the reasons they (the BLS) can account for. ie Business surveys do
not report self employed, farm workers, etc. Household surveys do.
It's simply, house hold is asked how many are working? How much are
they making? Etc.
But the BLS does not know, hasn't the data or access to it, why the
household surveys, for instance, even accounting for estimated numbers
of farm workers, those who say they are self employed, etc ... why is
it that even adjusting the figures households still report some 1.7
million extra bodies working which the BLS can not account for?
So the major thing here is that it's probably best not to take
fractions of a percent or even one or two percentage points variations
in the reports between this and that report too seriously and
literally.
FWIW, indeed the labor market is changing and while exported jobs ARE
affecting a small (of the overall population of the US) number of
folks. There is far more to the changes than that. And in fact, at
this time ... disregarding the future ... outsourcing probably has a
relatively minor impact.
Rising cost of energy is in all liklihood playing a bigger part in the
overall picture. As is increases in individual productivity.
i.e. Just about a week ago I was reading about a manufacturer of metal
parts in the Twin Cities who has upgraded machinery, and procedures
(equally or perhaps even more important). Net result. Only 25% of
the employees on the manufacturing end of things still remain. But at
the same time, each of those 25%, is producing as much as 5 employees
used to turn out.
Bad? Yes, for the lost employees. Not bad for the remaining ones.
Because they're competing successfully against China, for instance.
And in fact just won a competitive bid in which 5 Chinese companies
competed against them.
In my work, there is no fear of outsourcing. Nor any particular fear
of low wage immigrant workers. Few have the skills required. Very
few.
BUT ... the nature of how we do things, the total number of employees
we hire, etc is still changing. Not due to overseas competition. Due
to competition right here in the US. We have competing companies
constantly trying to take business from us. So we're constantly
trying to find ways to increase productivity, lower overhead, etc.
On the blue collar floor level, for instance, the average tech I have
working for me probably knows at least 50% more knowledge about his
field of work than what was required 10 years ago. If not 100% more.
I'm inclined to guess it's closer to that second number. As many of
them are doing things which used to be the sole province of degreed
engineers. Net result. We have fewer degreed engineers on staff.
Don't need as many as the techs have taken up part of their jobs.
Bad for the higher paid engineers. Good for the techs. While they're
not making as much as the lost engineers used to make, we're paying
them more than we used to. BUT ... requiring they know a lot more.
I could go on, but have to get to work. Was just typing this while
having my morning coffee and listening to the news with one ear.
But the nature of work is indeed changing. NOT just because of NAFTA,
either.
Bob
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
> > The problem
> >with the current "recovery" is that more and more jobs are going
> >overseas, other jobs are remaining at low wage levels. I read an article
> >earlier today that said the average wage had dropped from around $45k per
> >year in 2001 to around $35k per year in 2003. I'd say that's a rather
> >significant drop in income.
>
> For wage earners? Perhaps. But income from all sources is
> not dropping.
....and more bullshit. How the hell else shall folks make a
living? How about unskilled laborers? So, in your white -
bread, plaid - pantsed Republican world, let 'em eat cake,
right? That *is* what you're saying, isn't it? Screw the
wage earners, they don't *deserve* a decent middle - class life,
eh, Bob?
73,
S.L.
Stephen M.H. Lawrence
> <7.3s...@earthlink.net> wrote:
> >When will the madness end?
>
> What madness? Your snooping around in the back rooms of
> stores? Whenever you choose to stop. The Chinese doing a
> better/cheaper job of making furniture? Who knows?
....still more bullshit. "Better" job, my ass.
The Chinese do not make almost anything better!
Where the hell have you been, man? Name one luxury
car made in China. Name a really decent ...well,
anything, that's made in China! Top - of - the -
line stuff, premium stuff you supposed rightwinters
love? Cheaper, yes. Better? Hell, no.
73,
S.L.
Robert Sturgeon
M.H. Lawrence) wrote:
>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote:
>
>> > The problem
>> >with the current "recovery" is that more and more jobs are going
>> >overseas, other jobs are remaining at low wage levels. I read an article
>> >earlier today that said the average wage had dropped from around $45k per
>> >year in 2001 to around $35k per year in 2003. I'd say that's a rather
>> >significant drop in income.
>>
>> For wage earners? Perhaps. But income from all sources is
>> not dropping.
>
>....and more bullshit. How the hell else shall folks make a
>living? How about unskilled laborers?
I know of a fellow, an Hispanic immigrant, who made money by
running a janitorial service. There isn't much skill
involved in that. Others, also Hispanics, make money by
doing landscape maintenance, doing construction work,
operating trucks, selling produce, all sorts of interesting
things not inside your little "wages" box. Even if you
don't know it, there are many ways to make money besides
wages. You need to get out more.
> So, in your white -
>bread, plaid - pantsed Republican world, let 'em eat cake,
>right? That *is* what you're saying, isn't it?
No. I have no idea why you would reach such a silly
conclusion.
> Screw the
>wage earners, they don't *deserve* a decent middle - class life,
>eh, Bob?
"Deserve" has nothing to do with how much money people earn
and how they earn it, except in fairy tales. And to tie
your last sentence in with one of your earlier ones - no,
unskilled workers will not be leading decent, middle class
lives. This may come as a shock to you, but it's the truth.
Robert Sturgeon
M.H. Lawrence) wrote:
By "better/cheaper," I (obviously) meant the combination of
quality and cost. The Chinese combine quality and cost to
make products that have outstanding value. And yes, that is
purely a matter of opinion, as was your statement that they
don't make "really decent" ... anything. I have a little
digital camera made in China and it's a really decent little
camera - a very nice little machine. And it was cheap, too
- which is why I could afford to buy it.
Tim May
M.H. Lawrence <lanas...@lycos.com> wrote:
Nobody "deserves" any particular wage. They are hired by some employer
based on a market process.
Yes, the wages paid during the "bubble" years were higher than the
wages just before the bubble...and after the bubble. Sounds reasonable
to me. That "Web page designer" earning $45K per year to twiddle with
some HTML is now a "greeter" at Wal-Mart.
Meanwhile, employers are looking for talented programmers and designers
in India and China, which is where they are finding them.
--Tim May
> 73,
>
> S.L.
Duane
> I know of a fellow, an Hispanic immigrant, who made money by
> running a janitorial service. There isn't much skill
> involved in that. Others, also Hispanics, make money by
> doing landscape maintenance, doing construction work,
> operating trucks, selling produce, all sorts of interesting
> things not inside your little "wages" box. Even if you
> don't know it, there are many ways to make money besides
> wages. You need to get out more.
Related to that, I know some Mexicans that turned out to be illegals
(good forgeries) who were "middle class" businessmen, owned their own
stores, etc, who made more money on the slime line, one of the worst
jobs in the fish biz, than they could back home.
us...@domain.invalid
> Top - of - the -
> line stuff, premium stuff you supposed rightwinters
> love? Cheaper, yes. Better? Hell, no.
Glad to see that "supposed rightwingers".
Ever ask the "beautiful people" who they vote for? I mean the granola
munchers, "sensitive to (fill in the blanks)"? The sort who buy from
the fanciest shops.
Frank White
says...
>
>On 23 Feb 2004 07:20:32 -0800, lanas...@lycos.com (Stephen
>M.H. Lawrence) wrote:
>
>>Robert Sturgeon <rst...@inreach.com> wrote:
>>
>>> > The problem
>>> >with the current "recovery" is that more and more jobs are going
>>> >overseas, other jobs are remaining at low wage levels. I read an
article
>>> >earlier today that said the average wage had dropped from around $45k
per
>>> >year in 2001 to around $35k per year in 2003. I'd say that's a rather
>>> >significant drop in income.
>>>
>>> For wage earners? Perhaps. But income from all sources is
>>> not dropping.
>>
>>....and more bullshit. How the hell else shall folks make a
>>living? How about unskilled laborers?
>
>I know of a fellow, an Hispanic immigrant, who made money by
>running a janitorial service. There isn't much skill
>involved in that.
I worked my way through college in part by doing janitorial
work. If you think there isn't much skill involved in being a
good janitor, or running a janitorial service, I'm not sure
you've done either...
FW
Frank White
lanas...@lycos.com says...
The Chinese may be doing, now, what the Japanese did
in the 50's. The Japanese churned out really cheap,
shoddy products that they sold everywhere. This
gave them the capital to build quality production
facilities and develop new goods that have made them
one of the main producers in the world. If the
Chinese do the same, they could make themselves
really something in 30 years.
But I expect they'll blow it.
FW
Robert Sturgeon
(Frank White) wrote:
The Chinese are building both shoddy goods and high quality
goods. Now.
>But I expect they'll blow it.
I wouldn't bet on it.
Bob G
Lawrence) wrote:
>....still more bullshit. "Better" job, my ass.
>The Chinese do not make almost anything better!
>Where the hell have you been, man? Name one luxury
>car made in China. Name a really decent ...well,
>anything, that's made in China! Top - of - the -
>line stuff, premium stuff you supposed rightwinters
>love? Cheaper, yes. Better? Hell, no.
>
>73,
>
>S.L.
Hmmm. I would suppose you don't get out much, nor know much about the
real world. Just guessing, based on your above statements.
Not intending to slam yah guy, but your statements above are utterly
inconsistant with reality.
To start with, the VAST majority of the folks buying things, do not
buy top of the line.
This holds true for private individuals, and for corporate and company
commercial purchases.
To begin with, the vast majority of folks can not afford to buy top of
the line everything. IF ... they even knew which one of some
particular item was the "top of the line". Which in more cases than
not, they do not.
I'm not putting down people. It's just simple fact. That for a great
many items people buy they simply haven't the real knowledge, in any
depth, about the technical characteristics of the item to really know
the difference.
For most, in most cases, they only know ... or more accurately 'think'
,,, something is top of the line because they read that somewhere or a
friend said so ... or that smiling face they saw during an
advertisement said so.
In most cases, for most folks who do deliberately buy top of the line,
or try to, and who do the required homework and study of the issues
and technicalities to determine which one really is a top of the line
product ... they do so with only a few, selected items. i.e., Perhaps
the tools of their trade, items they want for a favored hobby or
activity, and so forth. For most folks, these will be a small number
of items as compared to all purchases made.
Go to an average store that the average American shops at and watch
em.
You'll find damn few ... very damned few ... who are deliberately
buying "top of the line" everything. Or even the majority of the
time.
1) In the case of some, they're clueless as concerns knowing the
difference.
2) In the case of others, they know the difference in the case of some
items, and if they can afforf it, will buy the better item. In the
case of other things, haven't a clue. Buy either a recognized name,
not knowing if it's actually better or not, but know that what they've
bought with that brand name on it has always been at least
satisfactory.
3) In this group's case, they'll buy a few items that they think are
clearly superior, have a personal preference for. Enough so they'll
pay the going price even if it's higher. But then try to make up the
difference by buying the cheaper of other selections.
4) Folks in this group are harder pressed for money. Try to buy the
cheapest they can find which will serve it's function adequately.
5) Folks who attempt to buy "top of the line" everything. Or at least
what they "think" is top of the line.
The biggest buying group is made up of groups two and three. Followed
by a group made up of groups 1 and 4.
The folks in group 5 are a distinct minority. And when I say they
always, or almost always buy the "top of the line", I say that
somewhat tongue in cheek as quite routinely folks in that group don't
really know in the case of many of the items they purchase. They're
just taking someone else's word for it and haven't actually tried a
different make of whatever.
In short, for most, while they may selectively be very picky about
certain items they know a lot about, for the rest of the items
purchased ... good enough is good enough. Is the item "good enough"
as compared to the price paid. If it is, they buy it. May even know
that a different make is better. But think that the other is not
superior enough to warrant the extra cost. And want to save the money
for other things more important to them than the slight difference
between this and that item as concerns quality. IF they can even tell
the difference.
FWIW, I've done both retail sales and commercial/industrial sales.
The general idea of what I say holds true in both cases.
I'm an engineer, but do get involved in the sales end of the business
I am in. Regularly one of our salesmen will call upon me to talk to a
prospective customer to answer technical questions, and/or to explain
the differences between two plans or proposals. Etc.
Now, if a customer has bottomless pockets, I can certainly lay out a
plan of "top of the line" everything. No problem. But, strange as it
might seem, our customers have funny ideas about this. Seem to think,
even the big corporations, that they don't have limitless funds.
Often seem to have this strange idea about "best value and payback"
for the dollar ... within a set budget amount.
Microsoft, for instance, I think has a fair chunk of funds. Seem to
be a fairly profitable firm. Not long ago we did a job for them at
one of their facilities. I am in the building automation / energy
management / fire and safety / and security systems biz, BTW.
Well, their rep, who is an in-house engineer with a knowledge of these
subjects and I sat down. He didn't indicate they were willing to but
"top of the line", whatever the hell that means to yah, everything.
In fact he wanted a certain line of digital controllers. Which were
NOT top of the line. Tho they are good. And in his estimate, backed
up by records and studies of the matter, they were a good pick based
on a combination of reliability, availability of replacement parts,
and cost. He wanted "tried and proven in the long run" as versus some
absolute "latest and greatest". As to the software selection, same
deal. In the end he selected a software suite that was not the
"latest and greatest", nor the fanciest. But it was simple to use for
the operators, reliable, and relatively bug free. And the bugs that
remained were known and there were work arounds we could put in the
system.
As these controllers are the heart of the system, so to speak, and the
items whose failure would create the greatest disruption in business,
and could be the highest price tag items to troubleshoot and repair.
He opted for a line which is NOT the best. But it'd do what he wanted
to get done, and it was a rock solid design, and well proven. Or as I
am fond of saying, "Works fine, lasts a long time." Kind of expensive
as concerns abilities as versus cost when compared to other
controllers. But reliable, and repairs were easily made and repairs
parts easily available. This line of controllers he insisted upon.
In the case of other items, he asked for opinions. And I gave him
mine. In some cases I suggested a "best", as it'd save time and money
later. In other cases I told him a "cheapie" would do. Save a few
bucks, as the item would last long enough on average (MTBF) to justify
saving the dollars as replacing the item was fast and easy and cheap.
And the alternate, the "best" in that item, was only better by a small
performance percentage which did not really, in my estimate, justify
the nearly doubling of the price tag. In these case of these
particular items, saving money by buying the cheapie was well
worthwhile.
End result is the system we installed was a mix of "best", good, and
"adequate" items. And the total amount saved over buying the "best"
of everything was quite considerable. With an increased probable
"down" time, maintenance and repair costs, that'd likely not be more
than a percent or two difference between it and the "best of
everything" system.
FWIW, I don't rely on advertisements, brochures, or the "name" or
"Made in ______ " tags on something to form my opinions. We tend to
more rely upon actual testing, experience, and historical records.
We've computerized records of every item we've installed since 1996,
and the records of how many times any item has failed, why it failed,
how long it took to fix and the cost and availability of the parts.
I'm as patriotic as anyone, guy. But I do not place ANY extra value
on a tag which says "Made in America" unless the combination of
quality versus cost actually justifies classifying it as a "better"
item. In some cases American made is better. In other cases it makes
no difference as long as the item is made to meet a certain spec. And
in some cases the American made item is inferior.
My job is to provide the best end product, a total system, for my
customer that can be had within the price tag my customer is willing
to pay. End of subject. I like my work. I like it ... a LOT ...
when my customer is smiling while handing over the payment check.
That makes me feel I've done a good job. That I've EARNED that check.
Customer got good value, and I got good pay.
That is the name of the game. Can the customer afford it? Because if
he or she can not, then none of this discussion is relevant. Nobody
sells and nobody buys, no business is done.
Does the customer feel that he or she got good value for the dollar
spent? Does the end product satisfy customer's wants and needs? If
so, then that "Made in America" tag is largely irrelevant. Unless yah
can provide the equivalent or better product for the same price with
all "Made in America" tags on it.
As stated, I'm patriotic. But that is neither here nor there. In
this world of ours just saying "American is better" is nonsense. Yah
either need to prove it and be competitive, or go home and sulk and
cry in your beer. My customers do not hire me, or others in the
company for which I work, just because we're American. They expect,
and demand, that we prove we're good at what we do, and worth the
money they're paying.
Nothing, really, is gonna change that. That's the bottom line. No
President is gonna change it, no Congress is gonna change it. Etc.
They can pass any laws or regulations they like. At best, the only
result will be to delay the inevitable. At worst they can severely
cripple the economy in the long run. "Protecting" the workers is not
the right answer. Not in the long run.
It's no different than the over protective parents who protect, or try
to protect, a child from any bad consequences, or any need to struggle
to learn and improve, or any need to learn to suffer failure and learn
from it, and so forth. End result is a child who has never learned to
cope, to succeed despite obstacles, who has never learned to fall and
hurt self but then to get right back up and try again. A child who
when grown in body, is still a child mentally. As he or she has never
learned to improvise, adapt, and overcome the obstacles and changes of
life.
Workers, people, need to learn to adapt. To change as things in the
world changes. To stand up on their own two feet. Without "Daddy and
Mommy" ... the government ... holding them up. At some point, every
person needs to learn to do for themselves.
We can not isolate ourselves. It is not possible, without severe
consequences. Not only that, but the average American won't even
tolerate it once they realize what that means. If we try to isolate
ourselves, which is possible ... tho I do not mean to imply it's
desireable ... it'd create an enormous bag of worms like most folks
have never thought about.
Cost of fuel and energy would go up drastically. Yes we could in time
create enough energy on our own to be able to do without imports. But
it's require the building of additional wells, refineries, etc. In
the case of renewable energy, same thing. We'd have to dump enormous
capital into the proposition. And do it damned quickly. I doubt we
even have the ready, quickly ready, capital to pull it off in short
order. And why? There are folks out there with little else, who'd
like a lot of things, but all they have is a lot of oil and natural
gas. More than they need or can use. Trade makes it a good deal for
all. We sell some desert dwellers, for instance, a bunch of stuff
they want and don't have. They sell us oil. Both sides benefit.
China needs stuff it's folks don't have. Stuff we can sell em. And
do. In return they make things our folks want. Is some of the stuff
China makes cheap and inferior? Yep. But there are folks here who
want cheap. Other stuff China makes is pretty much
non-distinguishable from the equivalent item made here. Just as good,
and maybe less expensive.
Case in point. My wife was not even aware of something about them,
but we have 8 oak dining room chairs. Which were bought years ago.
About 12 IIRC. She had this old, oak, antique dining table which had
been her mother's, and her grandmother's before that. Over the years
the matching oak chairs had gone by the wayside. Busted, this that
and the other thing. She had me look at em. Beyond any reasonable
repair. Several generations of kids and hard use will do that. So
she went shopping. Took over a year before she finally entered one
place one day and there were oak chairs of a design that'd look fine
with her table. She fetched me to look at them. She picks designs
and colors and such. I'm terrible at such things. But I know wood.
As well as other things. She wanted me to look and see if the chairs
were well made, sturdy, likely worth the money being asked. (Which
wasn't cheap, but not too bad. Especially considering her love for
that table.) Nothing special about the chairs. But a good, competent
design and workmanship. I could see nothing to fault them for. We
bought them. They've served well. Still look good and are strong and
solid. What my wife did not know about them, until one day when she
was musing about finding out who'd made them, because she was thinking
about buying 4 more oak chairs for our little kitchen dining table.
Which is where we eat most times. The big one is in the formal dining
room. What she did not know til I told her, was that they'd been made
in China.
Like some folks. She's always presumed that everything made in China
was cheaply made. And didn't even know they made furniture of a
design for sale in the US.
Chuckle, I told her I didn't know why she was surprised. While
certainly there are cheaply made items from China there was no reason
to believe they didn't have skilled and competent furniture makers.
Likewise, they have skilled and competent machinests, and whatever.
In some cases they can match anything made here. In other cases they
can not ... not yet. Give em time, they'll figure it out. Just
because they are Chinese this does not mean the are any dumber than we
are. In some cases, just need time to learn. In others, gotta earn
the money to buy the machines to make other machines. They'll get
there. I have no doubts about that.
Bob
Frank White
says...
Western built and run factories in China are building
high quality consumer goods. The only things of
quality the Chinese seem able to build on their own
are military goods and space ships.
>>But I expect they'll blow it.
>
>I wouldn't bet on it.
The Communist government in China on ALL levels is
rife with corruption, incompetance, stupidity, and
ineptitude. They have screwed up their environment
to the point that it will take billions to prevent
Beijing from being surrounded by desert by the time
of the Olympics; lousy construction and inspection
practices are resulting in major disasters in China
almost every week;,there are frequent rebellions
in the impovrished western part of the nation that
involve tens of thousands of people; the current
leadership is weak and trying to keep power by a
combination of brute force and bribing the people
into submission by massive spending, and also
executing minor Communist officials found guilty of
everything from corruption to rape in an attemtpt
to keep the people's support.
How, in GOD'S name, can they NOT blow it?
FW