On Fri, 19 Apr 2019 07:41:17 -0700, sms wrote:
> That is the problem that the top tier phone makers are now facing, and
> it's the reason for falling sales. There's just nothing that's giving
> people a compelling reason to upgrade.
I have to agree with Steve that there will need to be "something"
compelling for a lot of people to bother with an astronomically expensive
$1500 "upgrade", if the current hugely expensive $1000 phone is working
fine.
> The other issue affecting Samsung, Apple, and LG is that the lower-cost
> phones are getting much better, especially the Chinese brands like
> Xiaomi, Huawei, Oppo, Vivo, OnePlus, Lenovo, etc.
Hey Steve ... what about that LG Stylo 3 Plus your wife has?
o I love mine!
I can't find anything wrong with it, especially given the el cheapo price,
where, for an admittedly low $130, that LG Stylo 3 Plus phablet does all
the cellular scanning, wifi graphing, app launcher settings, automatic
phone recording, tor browsing, GPS routing, offline calendaring, offline
passwd management, offline encrypted containers, todo lists, reminders, app
reporting, etc., that I need.
I used to buy expensive phones when I was working (where the company
reimbursed me for most of them), but, I don't feel I'm missing _anything_
in this el cheapo phone that would make me want to spend the astronomical
$1500 to get what I essentially, already have.
The question of price versus value is always the same for all consumers:
What does a $1500 phone do that my current $130 phone doesn't do?
o And what does my current $130 phone do that the $1500 phone doesn't do.
> Some people say "4G LTE is already fast enough," but they don't
> understand the big picture. Even the Verizon CEO admitted that the value
> advantage of 5G isn't the "crazy high download speeds, as 4G LTE can be
> fast enough at the moment," but the lower latency and much greater
> capacity, and much better battery life of the handsets due to reduced
> power requirements of the radio.
Hi Steve,
As you're aware, I haven't researched 5G much other than to refute nospam's
naive claims that Apple "wasn't worried". I haven't looked into the
"advantages" of 5G other than the obvious (speed), so it's nice that you
list them out:
o speed
o latency
o capacity
o power
The capacity & power seem to be key if we're heading toward "the Internet
of things", where power is always super critical for tiny devices, and, if
we're gonna have a billion devices connected at any given time, capacity is
always a good thing.
I'm not sure the value of latency, where, of course, lower latency is
always a good thing, where, I guess, as latency drops, there can be more
"just in time" style devices that may care about microseconds.
> By the end of 2019, the waiting for 5G will affect phone sales even more
> than it already has.
I agree that the "wait for 5G" decision will get exponentially stronger
every day now that there are actual devices on the market which can be
showcased to their advantage where 5G is available.
That's one reason I am extremely keen to see how Apple prices the 2019
phones. To me, it's shocking how successful Apple MARKETING is in managing
the almost impossible task of making phones better, faster, and more
expensive.
Can you name any other common consumer product that bucks the better,
faster cheaper trend?
Only in a highly MARKETED world (with highly susceptible admittedly loyal
customers), can a company be that successful in bucking the natural trend
of electronics (IMHO).
However, as you're well aware, there has been a "weakness" at the
astronomical price of $1000 to $1500, so it will be interesting to see how
Apple MARKETING prices the 2019 phones in response to these huge factors:
a. They priced the iPhone astronomically high, and, yet,
b. They _know_ people will be holding out for 2020 phones.
> By the end of 2020, sales of non-5G phones will
> plunge, and will be limited to the low-end sub-$300 or so phones.
Yup. I agree with your logical deduction based on the facts.
> The 5G
> modems will be a single chip that also supports LTE, 3G and 2G (like the
> Qualcomm X55) and there will be no upside in building a non-5G high-end
> phone.
Yup. The logic is sound.
> There was just no way that any company could risk not having 5G
> by 2020, especially when all the company sells is higher-end phones and
> doesn't play at all in the low-end or mid-range market.
Yup. This is why the repeated "logic" of the apologists that Apple "wasn't
worried" about 5G was either incredibly naive or simply duplicitious (pick
one).
Apple was _desperate_ for 5G
o Which is why they "surrendered" to Qualcomm
o Mobile device sales stall as consumers await 5G, studies say
<
https://www.mobilemarketer.com/news/mobile-device-sales-stall-as-consumers-await-5g-studies-say/552303/>
"Users have reached a threshold for new technology ...
which means that unless new models provide significant
new utility, efficiency or experiences, users don't want
or need to upgrade"
"The global smartphone market has slumped as consumers
hold onto higher-priced devices and don't see a compelling
reason to upgrade for minimal feature improvements."
> <
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/smartphone-sales-are-slowing-will-5g-networks-bring-them-back-14829620>
o iPhone and Other Smartphone Sales Are Slowing
<
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/smartphone-sales-are-slowing-will-5g-networks-bring-them-back-14829620>
"There are multiple reasons for the slowdown in smartphone sales:
One important one, according to NPD analyst Brad Akyuz, is that
phones have just gotten much more durable"
"The devices are so much better: Components are getting better
and better, batteries are getting larger," he explained. "Storage
was also an issue several years ago, but that motivation disappeared
with cloud storage."
Note: I think that motivation disappeared with huge sd cards, IMHO.
> <
https://www.techradar.com/news/5g-anticipation-set-to-slow-down-smartphone-sales>
o 5G anticipation set to slow smartphone sales
<
https://www.techradar.com/news/5g-anticipation-set-to-slow-down-smartphone-sales>
"Analysts attributed slowing demand in maturing markets where
incremental updates to devices are resulting in less frequent
equipment refreshes, and the popularity of feature phones are
hampering demand in developing markets."
> <
https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-will-rule-on-high-end-phones-by-years-end-ready-or-not/>
o 5G will rule on high-end phones by year's end, ready or not
<
https://www.cnet.com/news/5g-will-rule-on-high-end-phones-by-years-end-ready-or-not/>
"Qualcomm's president predicts flagship smartphones will move to 5G
quickly -- but in emerging markets phones will still only run on
older networks."
"Nearly all big Android handset makers will jump into 5G early this
year. Essentially all of them, except for Huawei, will use Qualcomm's
5G modems. Amon in December predicted that every major Android handset
vendor will offer a 5G flagship phone by the holidays of 2019."
Note: I'm not sure why they didn't mention Apple.
> <
https://www.afr.com/technology/phone-sales-slow-as-5g-looms-as-next-big-change-20180802-h13hgk>
o Phone sales slow as 5G looms as next big change
<
https://www.afr.com/technology/phone-sales-slow-as-5g-looms-as-next-big-change-20180802-h13hgk>
"Australian mobile phone sales have slowed notably in the past
12 months, with an annual study finding one in three consumers
also plan to put off upgrading until 5G is available in 2020."
In short, if you have a working phone that you're happy with, most people
are gonna most likely keep it until there is a compelling reason to shell
out _another_ 130 bucks for a new phone with _better_ features. :)