On Monday, March 8, 2021 at 11:49:26 PM UTC-5, nospam wrote:
> The Real Bev wrote:
>
> > People's needs differ. If we can't say "Hey, let's go visit Sandy in
> > Houston for a couple of days tomorrow..." and actually do it, we've lost
> > something. Or Sequoia NP as a day trip from Los Angeles. Or going
> > skiing in Brian Head TOMORROW.
>
> how often do you actually do that?
The BEV transition challenge is really one of where the Pareto Principle
applies: it may very well be fine 80% of the time, but that other 20% can
become a real effort to be an equal/better (or minimally less good) alternative.
For a personal example, I have a 1x/month chore which involves a ~210
mile drive each way (plus 10-50 miles for "round & about" chores, so actual
is typically 450 - 500 miles). On petrol, its almost a "one tank" trip, but for
safety margins, one fill-up is needed at some point. This does mean that
one can start not full and refill 50-300 miles down the road, which could
be on the way down, or way back, with extensive schedule flexibility. The
only time that 2 refills becomes necessary is if one started <1/3rd tank.
> and you can still do that with an electric vehicle.
Sure one *can*, but the question is the "cost" incurred.
Since most BEVs are <250 mile range, we're looking at needing to start at
100% full and then at least one full charge for return under ideal conditions.
Now this particular destination lacks overnight recharge at any higher than
100VAC 9and isn't likely to get one for the foreseeable future) , so we're not
going to be able to get back to 100% with an overnight. Instead, we're stuck
with using "quick charges" en route, which will be to just 80%, so even if one
had an Extended Range BEV that could make it all the way down, so one is
going to need two Quicks en route to get home. Now that could be 2 on the
return, but its probably smarter to have 1 just before arriving at the destination
to afford a safety margin (& accommodate the round & about) and then the
second on the return. Without paying more upfront for an Extended Range
vehicle (or more safety margin and/or winter conditions), you're looking at
three (3) quick recharges, which at 30 minutes each (assumes 100% perfect
availability of recharge stations & zero time/distance diversions off the most
efficient route), we're looking at +1.5 hrs added to a ~7.5 hr drive, for a +20%
increase in the time obligation 'overhead'.
Just how much additional time (& Pareto Principle frequency thereof) becomes
one's personal YMMV for the "straw which broke the camel's back", but this
does illustrate that something which isn't part of "everyday" but is still frequent
enough can be a deciding factor.
Overall, most of us prefer to have both our weekday + weekend capability needs
satisfied with just one vehicle per driver instead of two because of the costs.
Perhaps if there were 2 seater BEVs that only cost $10,000 new to allow the return
to "Dad's daily commuter sled/fun car", it would be a different discussion today.
-hh