Analysis -- Hydroxycholoroquine: The coronavirus treatment Trump
allies can't quit
The drug is back in the big time among Trump supporters and on Fox
News. Here's what the study they cite actually shows.
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The study was released a few weeks ago by infectious-disease
researchers in New Jersey. The researchers studied 255 patients at
Saint Barnabas Medical Center in Livingston, N.J., during the early
months of the pandemic. They conclude that a combination of
hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin at certain levels translates to "a
survival rate 2.9 times the other patients."
The study though, crucially, is a preliminary one, which means it has
not undergone a rigorous peer-review process. It's also an
observational study, which means we're not comparing the same
treatments given to one group to another receiving a placebo. The gold
standard for such studies is a randomized, double-blind study in which
neither the patients nor doctors know who is getting the treatment vs.
the placebo.
That's really the crucial point. The 2.9 times higher survival rate is
not compared to those who didn't receive the treatment; it's compared
to those who received less of the treatment.
And as critics of the study have noted, there are other very valid
reasons those who received less of the treatment might have had worse
outcomes, including the severity of their cases.
"It's likely that patients who died rapidly received less total (of
the two drugs) because they were dead; one can't conclude from these
data that they died because they got fewer doses," Neil Schluger,
chairman of New York Medical College's Department of Medicine, told
PolitiFact. "It"s also likely that, if they received lower doses on a
daily basis, it's because they were sicker to begin with."
Penny Ward, a professor of pharmaceutical medicine at King's College
London, echoed that point, according to the U.K. fact-checking website
Full Fact.
"This analysis is flawed, as longer survival is likely to be
associated with greater cumulative doses of any treatments given,"
Ward said, "and in addition there is a major imbalance between the
numbers of individuals in each group compared."
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