the view from malibu
Daytrde
traders. if you would like to receive a trial through june 30,
1995, please e mail Day...@aol.com. i am a trader,
not a broker.
The View from Malibu for May 22, 1995
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This nightly update is intended to educate traders
by encouraging an analytical approach that will
apply to all markets. Markets measure the human
emotions of fear and greed and the economic laws
of supply and demand. the sp500 futures and the
tbond futures are the markets discussed nightly
but all futures markets are traded along with an
occasional oex option. Hopefully the approach
taken will benefit you no matter what market you
trade.
june sp500 bias:neutral<520.35, up 1.25>
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the market made a lower low and lower high and closed
up on quiet expiration day trading.
yesterday the market was down in excess of 1% for the first
time since december, which old timers are saying may be
the longest stretch in history. we will stand aside for
now as the market tries to regain its equilibrium.
the huge and long duration negative nyse TICKs this
week moderate the bearish view for the short term trader.
a counter trend rally to work off some of this excessive
bearishness is definiteley in order. can the market go
straight down form here? of course, but trading is a game
of percentages and the higher and longer these negative
TICKs, the less chance of continued downside action there
is.
oex notes
****************
the monday and tuesday following expiration week are
normally stripping days for the oex specialists as
premium is taken out of the now current<june> options.
the market often has small whipsaws. when the
market goes up/down, the calls/puts are not quite as
high/low as the last time at that level. buyers of
front month calls from friday afternoon are often surprised
to see the value of their positions by wednesday morning.
june bonds bias:neutralt<110.09, down 1/32nd>
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the bonds took their expiration day siesta today and
traded in an extremely narrow range today. wait for a
retest of the high 110's before scalping from the short
side for more than 4-6 ticks.
market of interest: july crude<19.90, up .08>
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stop me if you've heard this before, but crude had a quiet
friday with a slightly higher high and higher low and is
trading near the high of the trading range in the low
20 dollar range. stand aside for monday since this
market is at the top of the trading range on a higher
high. today 1 june crude was sold at 19.85 and bot at
the close at 19.90 for a loss of 50 and commission of
20 or -70.
market of interest: july copper<125.10, up .15>
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the market continued to trade a quiet range and we exited
half our short position at 124.55<from 123.95> for a loss of
150 and 20 commission or -170. we are still short from 123
with a stop at a close above 126.50. the idea here is that
despite the bearish leanings, the market is range bound
and the second position is a better percentage trade after
we close below 124 than now.
market of interest: july soybeans<582 1/2, down 7>
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why would i have interest on the long side in a market that
closed down more than 1%? this market broke out on of a
two week base in the 568 area thursday. buy a july soybean
contract<10k bushels> at 585 or better on monday, with a
close only stop at 566, to get in the market. we'll add to the
position as conditions warrant.
the account balance<30k 1/1/95> was 40464 and is now 40224
thought for the day:...a man can excuse his mistakes only
by capitalising<sic> them to his subsequent profit...
larry livingston
good trading
dt<eric>
please take to heart the following disclaimer:
1> dont trade futures unless you really understand
the risk you take for the reward you may get!
2>futures trading is risky and can result in
unlimited losses in excess of your margin
deposit
3>the use of stop loss orders may not limit your
losses to intended amount.
4>past performance is no guarantee of future results