2010 Stock Picking Challenge
Lubow
shortT
> Thank you for participating in the 2010 MIS stock picking game.
>
> http://tinyurl.com/lgkyvo
Thanks Lubow.
Nice to see Buffy is back in.
shortT
ausound
69551f...@u41g2000yqe.googlegroups.com:
> Thank you for participating in the 2010 MIS stock picking game.
>
> http://tinyurl.com/lgkyvo
Implant Sciences Corp. (IMSC.OB)
5-Jan-10 0.29 0.39 0.29 0.35
4-Jan-10 0.51 0.55 0.28 0.29
you have my stock IMSC listed as -30% when it has risen +20.6%
from the close of biz on the 4th to the close of biz on the 5th
Lubow
> Lubow <dynamitem...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:9edfd793-9d7c-4688-82b5-
> 69551f288...@u41g2000yqe.googlegroups.com:
>
> > Thank you for participating in the 2010 MIS stock picking game.
>
> >http://tinyurl.com/lgkyvo
>
> Implant Sciences Corp. (IMSC.OB)
>
> 5-Jan-10 0.29 0.39 0.29 0.35
> 4-Jan-10 0.51 0.55 0.28 0.29
>
> you have my stock IMSC listed as -30% when it has risen +20.6%
> from the close of biz on the 4th to the close of biz on the 5th
Closed at $0.50 on 12/31/2009.
If you feel there is a problem with the tally, just drop me an email.
OK?
The Visitor
And Dirt is in first place.
Go Dirt!!!
And a big thank you to Lubow for hosting the game.
Thank you!!!!!!!
Good luck to all.
John
"Lubow" <dynami...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:9edfd793-9d7c-4688...@u41g2000yqe.googlegroups.com...
-=DirtBag©
Yes. Thank You Lubow for once again taking time to do this for the
group.. It is becoming a MIS tradition that I look forward to.
ausound
afc2d0...@d20g2000yqh.googlegroups.com:
so the contest starts with the closing price on the 31st, not the cob on
the 1st OIC
Lubow
> Lubow <dynamitem...@hotmail.com> wrote in news:f19030e6-f40b-42dd-9a5a-
> afc2d00a9...@d20g2000yqh.googlegroups.com:
Yes. That's how it was done on Rukeyser's W$W, which is the model we
follow.
Lubow
> On 1/6/10 7:25 AM, The Visitor wrote:
>
>
>
> > Yeah! It's up and running.
> > And Dirt is in first place.
> > Go Dirt!!!
>
> > And a big thank you to Lubow for hosting the game.
> > Thank you!!!!!!!
>
> > Good luck to all.
>
> > John
>
> >news:9edfd793-9d7c-4688...@u41g2000yqe.googlegroups.com...
> >> Thank you for participating in the 2010 MIS stock picking game.
>
> >>http://tinyurl.com/lgkyvo
>
> Yes. Thank You Lubow for once again taking time to do this for the
> group.. It is becoming a MIS tradition that I look forward to.
Thanks, everybody. I'm just sorry I can't put the same level of work
that I once put into it. I'm working on a HUGE project that will keep
me hopping for the next year or two. For this reason I need everyone
to email to me their dividends per share with the payout date. I have
no trouble entering the data, but researching them is very time
consuming.
One thing I would like is for everyone involved to explain in a few
sentences what they saw in the stocks they had selected.
For me, I looked at which stocks would complement the recovery out of
a recession/depression environment. In the 1930s the Dow dropped
below 100 but IBM was doing a great business selling Holerith cards
and sorting machines to the government. Government is still a huge
customer for Big Blue and for CSC. In this environment, CAT should
also do well.
SHLD plain sucks and many see this company as a company that will not
survive in its present form.
MA remains a money machine and UNP is the standard railroad of the
world.
The others were just guesses with stocks that have done well for me
over the years and seem to fit the economic environment.
-=DirtBag©
My reasoning for my picks was that SOLAR is on the brink of a new dawn.
(stp,eslr,solf,csiq) were all pretty beat up and have in the past
shown a good investor support when the catalysts were there..
(F) was talking good numbers and they were not in the toilet like the
others.. they had money when tarp came a calling.. (TSO, VLO) again
were in the toilet and energy prices are now allowing a larger
crack-spread and growing in their favor.. (ivan) is on the brink of a
major move now that its steam extraction process is actually up and
running. It will only get better.. and with (FCX, RTP) raw metals are
a hedge on the dollars shitty price and standing.
I have several other that I didn't use which are also doing quite well.
Solar --> ldk,wfr,ener,sol
Good luck to everyone. Special thanks to Lubow for running the contests
and kuddos to ausound for his many lists and keen eye for new fish.
Lawyerkill
>
> For me, I looked at which stocks would complement the recovery out of
> a recession/depression environment. �In the 1930s the Dow dropped
> below 100 but IBM was doing a great business selling Holerith cards
> and sorting machines to the government. �Government is still a huge
> customer for Big Blue and for CSC. In this environment, CAT should
> also do well.
>
Interesting that you say that. I just finish reading, "The Maverick
and his Machine" by Kevin Maney. I do very little easy reading now a
days, but I took a break from the heavy stuff to read this one.
Anyway, IBM was in just as bad of shape as all the other companies at
the time, but when the SS Act was passed the goverment needed a ton of
card and sorting machines and IBM had a lot of them in the warehouse
at just the right time. Luck had a lot to do with IBM still being
here, in that case and many others.
I also read a few other books on IBM. One of the better ones I think
was called, Father & Son Inc by Thomas Watson Jr.
ausound
6f1fd6...@3g2000vbp.googlegroups.com:
> One thing I would like is for everyone involved to explain in a few
> sentences what they saw in the stocks they had selected.
APSG 19.05
Applied Signal Technology, Inc.
provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance solutions for the
defense, intelligence, and homeland security markets.
REASON: profitable company, sequential quarterly growth in retained
earnings, low debt to revenue, sequential paydown of debt, TECHNICALLY had
fallen close to support levels which I felt would be close to a good entry
point on Dec 31
SATC 2.79
Satcon Technology Corporation
provides utility grade power solutions for the renewable and distributed
energy markets worldwide. It offers products to convert renewable energy
sources into electrical power to businesses and utility companies
REASON: it's a money losing company, balance sheet is a mess, but I think
their photovoltaic and fuel cell power inverters and design services,
monitoring, and performance measurement to large-scale renewable energy
plants puts them in a sweet spot. Metaphorically they don't pan for gold,
they sell pans and shovels to the miners
SYNM 2.88
Syntroleum Corp.
engages in the Syntroleum Process for Fischer-Tropsch (FT) conversion of
synthesis gas derived from biomass, coal, natural gas, and other carbon-
based feedstocks into liquid hydrocarbons; the Synfining Process for
upgrading FT liquid hydrocarbons into middle distillate products, such as
synthetic diesel and jet fuels; and the Bio-Synfining technology for
converting animal fat and vegetable oil feedstocks into renewable diesel
and jet fuel. The company has a joint venture agreement with Tyson
Foods,ALSO IS THE SOLE PARTNER FOR IVANHOE'S HTL PROCESS
REASON partnered with Tyson & Ivanhoe, which will benefit their business.
Sequentially they've popped their topline revenue, and over the last 4
quarters they are a NET BUYER of their own <depressed> shares. Their SGA
costs have been cut by a factor of a third to a half over the last 4
quarters.TECHNICALLY they're on firm footing, with under bought indicators
POWL 32.49
Powell Industries, Inc.
equipment and systems for the management and control of electrical energy
and other critical processes in the transportation, environmental, energy,
industrial, and utility industries.
REASON: Steady revenue & cost control, inventory is decidely down, which is
good, strong retention of earnings, low debt to revenue and appears
committed to paying down debt, evidenced by the last 4 quarters
TECHNICALLY: this stock is consolodating from a stupendous all time high
in July 2008 It's resting on a <monthly> 1 year support line, indicators
are at or near neutral between over sold&bought
UDN 27.73
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish
Exchange Traded Fund is designed to replicate the performance of being
short the US Dollar against the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian
Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.
REASON: I guess I think the USA is not done devaluing it's currency
TECHNICALLY: they'll be some strengthening of the dollar in the early part
of the year, followed by greater strengthening of the OTHER CURRENCIES in
the latter part of the year
RWC 3.25
RELM Wireless Corp.
wireless communications products for government and public safety, and
business and industrial markets It offers land-mobile radio equipment for
professional radio users primarily in government and public safety
applications, as well as P25 digital products
REASON: no debt, fabulous YOY growth in revenue and earnings, declining
inventory [good], declining retained earnings deficet [good], for the past
year they have paid back exactly what they've borrowed. They've recently
won a couple good gubmint contracts. PROJECT25 is the solution stemming
from 911. PR25 is the interoperability solution for first responder's
communication devices. States are sitting with government grant money like
deer in the headlights. SPEND THE GODDAM MONEY YOU IMBECILES
TECHNICALLY I think it has finished consolodating from an all time high in
2006. ADDENDUM: The Cheany-Busch-League just froze-out companies that
dealt with domestic homeland defense. 2 recent gubmint contracts portends a
new climate.
EME 27.35
EMCOR Group Inc.
provides electrical and mechanical construction and facilities services
worldwide. It engages in the design, integration, installation, start-up,
operation, and maintenance of various electrical and mechanical systems,
including electric power transmission and distribution systems, such as
power cables, conduits, distribution panels, transformers, generators,
uninterruptible power supply systems, and related switch gear and controls;
premises electrical and lighting systems, and roadway and transit
lighting, and fiber optic lines.
The company also designs, integrates, and installs heating, ventilation,
air conditioning, refrigeration, and clean-room process ventilation
systems;
EMCOR Group's facilities services include industrial maintenance and
services; outage services military base operations small modification and
retrofit projects; program development, management, and maintenance for
energy systems; and shop and on-site field services for refineries and
petrochemical plants
REASON: they be PLAYAHS! but dinged YOY revenue&earnings as well as growing
short interest indicates another contraction as it consolodates from it's
all time high in 2007. Retained earnings growth is money in the bank, lots
of capital surplus, and they've been paying down debt (which is relatively
small) like big dogs. TECHNICALLY: one more dip below $25 before it really
takes off, so in the scope of the 1 year contest, this is a late stage in
the contest contestant
IMSC.ob 0.33
Implant Sciences Corp.
Implant Sciences Corporation engages in the development, manufacture, and
sale of sensors and systems for the security, safety, and defense
industries in the United States and internationally. The company offers
handheld and bench-top explosive trace detection systems to private
companies and government agencies for screening baggage, cargo, vehicles,
people, and other objects for the detection of trace amounts of explosives
REASON: news driven hysteria! This is the company that makes the quantum
sniffer. after domestic homeland defense was ignored by the cheney-busch-
league, we have a terror blip on the radar and this stock will benefit from
the knee-jerk reaction. Fundamentally these guys are a shambles...
inundated with debt. In fact they've recently defaulted but their creditor
was quick to restructure the promissory notes. Latest $400k sale was again
overseas, but I suspect we will see some domestic sales of the quantum
sniffer soon. woo hoo! I own some!!
TECHNICALLY: you have to look at a 3 month chart to see any love at all.
EEI 14.65
Ecology & Environment, Inc.
A PROUD MEMBER OF THE (oh so secret)AUSOUND KATRINA INDEX!!
an environmental consulting firm, provides professional services to the
government and private sectors worldwide. It offers a range of
environmental consulting services, including critical feature/fatal flaw
analyses; environmental impact assessments; feasibility and siting studies;
permitting, and due diligence audits. The company evaluates and develops
various methods to avoid or mitigate environmental impacts of a proposed
project and to ensure that the project complies with regulatory
requirements. Ecology and Environment, Inc. also provides logistical
support, emergency response/management services, conducts hazardous waste
site evaluations , it conceives and designs environmental restoration
projects
REASON: NO INFRASTRUCTURE CAN BENEFIT FROM STIMULUS MONEY UNTIL AN
EVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OR AT LEAST ENGINEERING PLANS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
Low debt to revenue, stable revenues & operating incomes numbers, continued
strong growth in retained earnings, consistant paydown of debt. SLOW PAYS
on the accounts receiveables from fricken dead beat accounts... EEI needs
to send out some muscle & collect that shit...
TECHNICALLY: actually bought & sold for profit years ago but have been
watching & watching ever since. The long term indicators never decline on
this small volume player with dividends! My guess is $13.25 is the entry
point before it goes to $20
JEC 40.05
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc.
provides professional, technical, and construction services. Its principal
services comprise various aspects of engineering and construction,
operations, and maintenance, as well as scientific and specialty consulting
services. The company serves a range of companies and organizations,
including industrial, commercial, and government clients across multiple
markets and geographies. Its primary service markets include aerospace and
defense, automotive and industrial, buildings, chemicals and polymers,
consumer and forest products, energy, environmental programs,
infrastructure, oil and gas, refining, technology, and pharmaceuticals and
biotechnology. Jacobs Engineering Group?s network comprises approximately
160 offices in approximately 20 countries, with operations in North
America, the United Kingdom, mainland Europe, India, Australia, and Asia.
REASON: NO INFRASTRUCTURE CAN BENEFIT FROM STIMULUS MONEY UNTIL AN
EVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OR AT LEAST ENGINEERING PLANS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
Lots of money in the bank, lots of cash onhand, despite declining earnings
& revenues.
TECHNICALLY: is digesting and consolodationg from it's all time high above
$100 in 2007 and a lesser double top in 2008. Has been basing along it's
12 year moving average and I think one more downleg to $29.99 would signal
an entry point of $30.
note: 2 new contracts were announced with no amounts indicated, but the
revenues will take the better part of the year to travel to JEC's balance
sheet. In the context of the 1 year contest, this is intended to provide a
late stage surge.
Ron Peterson
> One thing I would like is for everyone involved to explain in a few
> sentences what they saw in the stocks they had selected.
I try to look for niche stocks particularly if they are tech, energy
related, and have a low price to tangible book ratio (<2).
I also look for stocks with expensive calls which indicates general
investor interest.
--
Ron
ausound
6a6756...@m25g2000yqc.googlegroups.com:
> I also look for stocks with expensive calls which indicates general
> investor interest.
logicical, and I've never thought of that
thanks
The Visitor
One thing I would like is for everyone involved to explain in a few
sentences what they saw in the stocks they had selected.
Reasons, you want reasons? Hmmmmm oooookaaaay.
FNI becasue I am hoping they will reopen their mine in March or April, get
some production going and the share price back up.
NGD not too much of a reason, just thought it would appreciate some.
OSIS because everybody is buying the Rapiscan $$$.
OSK because when they go into production at Malartic it should be a cheap
mine to run and they are sitting on a lot of gold. Maybe it will get bought
out at a premium.
SNG time for some gas.
TGX I am a sucker for rubies. I hope one day they will go into production.
TIM they have started up some limited production and have bottomed out.
Hopefully there will be a demand for silicon.
TMM lots of room for them to rise up as they are pouring metal.
VNP sort of a "filler" but I am an optimist and I hope they know what they
are doing.......
WM owns some of another company holding a real good mineral claim.
The Visitor
One thing I would like is for everyone involved to explain in a few
sentences what they saw in the stocks they had selected.
====================
com...@webtv.net
it...^%$^&&$
i can't even read it with my webtv..
didn't send in my dividends....
dn't know where i finished.
i will definately will enter next year though..should have a new
computer by then. will be keeping my webtv though..
" FREE AMANDA "
Lawyerkill
> i didn't enter this year..was going to but totaly forgot about
> it...^%$^&&$
> i can't even read it with my webtv..
Hook it into your surge protector?