...the following:
> Ken's course gets 'flamed' regularly in this group. >>>I have not seen any
> real substantive objections to Ken's methods.<<<* Best advice I have seen was
> to study the market very carefully and to be sure whatever method, system,
> etc. that you use works for YOU. You should make your own trading
> decisions, not your broker or some 'guru'.
> Oddly enough, that's exactly what Ken says to do.
*emphasis mine
I have made several posts on the TWMPMM method...not all very nice.
However my objections were very substantive. Ken's so-called method is
top and bottom fishing with wide stops. Pure suicide for the "never
more than $5000.00" account.
There is nothing wrong with top and bottom fishing...but you need to
keep your stops small as you will be wrong many times. They say top
pickers make good cotton pickers. I suppose that's true if you base your
"choice" on a "bottom" or a "top" on pure subjective opinion.
Still, I have seen FEW methods that pick long term tops and bottoms
better than 123 formations (I call then "pivots"...I don't care what you
call them, I didn't invent them and neither did Ken). I think they are
great. Played correctly they DO make money, even for the little guy. I
like triangles too.
Ken's TWMPMM "course" shows a valid EVENT, but it's what you do AFTER
the event that makes or breaks your account. I promise you that
pyramiding your contracts in the manner Ken shows is the surest path to
disaster. It's irresponsable hype, pure and simple.
--
J. White /\ ?
Lowly Chartist /\ / \/
Technical Heretic / \/
http://www.hooked.net/users/whitetek
/\ /\/
/\/ \ /\ /
/ \/ \/
Mike R
A horrible but true statistic in futures: for people trading less than
$25,000 it isn't a question of whether you win or lose, but how long you
can hang around before being blown out. Doesn't really make any difference
how you trade, you just can't take the inevitable string of losses inherent
in any trading system. I never accept futures business for less than
$50,000, for which I have a proprietary system that shows results.
Bernstein, who has the worst infomercial on the planet, will tell you in
his promotional material that you have to be able to sustain seven
consecutive losses to stay around, an absolutely true statement. None of
the other hucksters will admit to that. When you trade a $50,000 account
you will be in as many as 18 markets and if the system is good the wins
will outperform the losses and show you profits. You need to be in a lot
of markets. I know the current S&P bozos will tell you that is wrong, but
believe me the S&P comes apart the first time the market gets weird; who
can't make money playing the S&P over the past two years?
Id tell you but im not sure if they have email in debtors prison :
David Bistline <bi...@color-country.net> wrote in article
<01bc9c51$8c5cb060$512f00cf@bisns>...
> I have been studying Ken Roberts Courses and would like to contact course
> members about their trading strategies. reply to newsgroup or by e-mail.
>
If you intend to use Robert's methods in your account, do the
following. Look at some recent trades. Look at where you would get
in. Look at where you would put the stop (at the #1 point? #2 point?
other side of the channel?). Now ignore where the market went. Assume
it hit your stop (instead of going your way, if it did). Assume this
happened in ten consecutive trades. Sometime in the next year or two of
trading it probably will. Do you have enough in your hypothetical
account to convince you to continue trading so that you will be there
when the big wins come along? Once you do this you'll see why people
recommend that the stop for each position imply a nominal risk of no
more than 2 - 5% of your account.
I wouldn't be suprised if "Ken Roberts" two main techniques work. It's
the omission of risk control from a course aimed at beginners with small
accounts that is outrageous.
Commodity Traders Consumers Report (800-832-6065) recently did a review
of TWMPMM. I don't have that issue. Sometimes they do actual testing of
proposed techniques. If not, perhaps someone on this group would like
to program it in TradeStation as a test on all major commodities over,
say 10 years.
One certainly gets the impression from the newsletter that the
procedure works. (I subscribed for 1 year after my initial 3 months,
but did not use the system.) The question is, are these well chosen
examples, and the lossers not shown? My recollection is that the losers
were few and minor, but the charts were several weeks old. So they
could have been picked with hindsight. Midway through my subscr. he did
drop the longer articles in favor of showing many more charts. Maybe
now it's more realistic. I don't have a recent enough opinion to say.
Why doesn't he tabulate results?? Several brokers have been recommended
by him for a while. Could they produce a tabulation?
> One certainly gets the impression from the newsletter that the
> procedure works. (I subscribed for 1 year after my initial 3 months,
> but did not use the system.) The question is, are these well chosen
> examples, and the lossers not shown? My recollection is that the losers
> were few and minor, but the charts were several weeks old. So they
> could have been picked with hindsight.
Bingo! I wish I could sell a mag like that...I'd call it HINDSIGHT
MONTHLY :)
>Ken's course gets 'flamed' regularly in this group. I have not seen any
>real substantive objections to Ken's methods. Best advice I have seen was
>to study the market very carefully and to be sure whatever method,
system,
>etc. that you use works for YOU. You should make your own trading
>decisions, not your broker or some 'guru'.
>Oddly enough, that's exactly what Ken says to do.
I agree with, you Mike- Some of the techniques Ken uses are decent- but
ALL strategies need to be YOURS. I have collected a little here and a
little there, and I'm still chaging my style of tyrading to get it better!
WW
Be positive, be bright and good things will happen!
Dave S.
Leading buy example I see? Or is POOLBOY320 your real name? I for one
use my REAL NAME and my picture is even posted at my site.
> Be positive, be bright and good things will happen!
The market does not care what your personal outlook is. You can be a
sorry SOB and a total misery to your wife and children, but if you trade
in the direction the market is moving you will make money...period.
> Mr. White, for your information, "POOLBOY320", isn't the one giving a
> bunch of negative thoughts to people. Oh well, just to let you know.
> Bye.
I can't give you a negative thought. Whether you have one or not is up
to you.
Anthony <antho...@geocities.com> wrote in article
<33FFC4...@geocities.com>...
> > POOLBOY320 wrote:
> >
> > > It seems to me that this newsgroup and others is a forum for the
poison of
> > > negative thinking pseudo-intellectuals whose only goal in life is to
rain
> > > on someones's parade
> Mr. White, for your information, "POOLBOY320", isn't the one giving a
> bunch of negative thoughts to people
Clues are on sale for half price this week.
It's a tiresome fact that the vast majority of traders
are losing. The vast majority of wide-eyed new traders are
right in the middle of that pack, and it doesn't matter whose
Amazing System they bought to get themselves there.
Given that day after day, year after year, the same sad
thing happens to the small speculators, why would you
expect to see an explosion of genuine optimism out on
a discussion newsgroup like this? Even the traders who
are successful over the long haul get frequently spanked
by the markets.
Want something that isn't negative? Try this on for
size....
Ever consider whether the large portion of
new, losing traders have very similar patterns of behavior?
They do, Tex & Tex, and among those patterns of
behavior is something very interesting:
Losers concentrate on stories of victory and
winning and riches and hope and optimism and success.
What they don't spend most of their time doing is
analyzing the strategies and behaviors of other losing
traders to find out what they're doing, and then
stop doing that stuff themselves.
Losers have winning behaviors! A losing trader will
not always do everything wrong on every
trade. But those winning behaviors are undercut
by an overload of losing behaviors, and so the money
flows away. It's not a lack of winning ideas and
practices that kill the losers; it's too much bad stuff.
Winners have those same good behaviors, but they are very
short on the losing stuff; consequently, things work out
better over time for them.
Ooohhh, that's *NEGATIVE*, Sticks. You must be one
of them would-be intellectual snobs who just hates and
says negative things so you can hurt other people.
What is this, Scientology? It ain't negative unless you're
too defensive about reality to change your way of
thinking.
It's a clue. Look to the losers. Are you doing what they're
doing? Guess what -- then they're not "they". They're
"us", and you'd better do some changing. If you look at
the winners, it's too easy to decide you're just like them.
THINK. LOOK. ANALYZE. CHANGE.
Sticks
"A genuinely negative person who hates everybody"