Deepinsight software / CJ - Jack Hershey
passat
<jher...@primenet.com <mailto:jher...@primenet.com>
wrote:
>>My amateur machine program picked the following for entry this
AM: ELNT,
>>XLTC, CHP CHRW, BBRC, RATL and DPAC. If you watch these for
the next 6 to
>>8 days you will see how long a cycle is for holding and what
it means to
>>compound at that rate.
Hello Jack Hershey,
I virtually bought some shares of your picks posted 07-31-00
BBRC 660 shares 76.00
CHP 1320 shares 38.00
CHRW 830 shares 60.00
DPAC 5000 shares 10.00
ELNET 740 shares 68.00
RATL 530 shares 94.00
XLTC 1400 shares 36.00
You can see I bought them for a pretty good an fair price
right before the breakouts on this day, assuming that you
would have done the same even you posted your picks
after the Monday´s close when every single stock looked
promising already.
I watched these for the last 8 days as you suggested and
now I wonder what you´ve meant with "compound at
that rate"?
Regards
Passat P.
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Jack Hershey
Thanks for taking the trouble to follow the stocks that I listed for
31July00 for the time in which an ordinary 1/2 cycle of trading occurs. The
list was my best choices for buying 31JUL00. It was the list I made up the
evening before.
By considering the list as a groups to buy, then allocating 50,000 dollars
to each of them as you did, at this point you would be in a loss position of
about 22,000 dollars or about 6 plus percent loss. Hopefully, you were also
looking at the list from the viewpoint of the four comments I made regarding
CJ's situation as I saw it.
I culled the possible buy list you have from several other lists: the
possible buys from the day before; the list of stocks I've recently owned;
stocks from a rolling universe I keep and subgroup into three short lists:
10 stocks whose volume is increasing by the highest percentages. and two
lists of stocks (10 each) whose volume is most decreasing ( I call these
Dryup 1 and Dryup 2). So the list of seven you had is very short and
focussed and changes daily.
The culling is done from a viewpoint including: volume; MACD (5 13 6); three
price items; and stochastics (5 3 3). the landscape note form I use is
"checked for presence" and "notes all exceptions".
There are always exceptions for stocks that make the list because if there
aren't I just missed the best time to "buy" the stocks. So the check sheet
is one where I strive to list stocks that I anticipate will become "buys"
now or over a few days. What I watch for on the short list are the items
that are noted as "not yet" and the particular qualification that is to be
fulfilled.
They are tracked real time during market hours along with the realtime
indicators that are also "anticipatory". I trade on the daily bars and
anticipate on the 30 minute bars and often draw in my short term formations
on the 5 minute bars where I can easily see breakouts early in their
occurance.
So the list usually looks promising during the day for which it is prepared.
The columns of the sheet I am trying to fulfill during the day after the
stock makes the list are:
1. stock symbol,
2. Volume in Dry up (Draw a line across a daily volume profile where the
volume is the lower amount that occurs over six months, it has to be over
20,000 shares to be liquid enough to trade)
3. MACD (5 13 6) four checks: well defined trough bottom, rising, xover, and
divergent. or on "0" for four plus bars and then a BO up diverging.
4. Price1. daily:Right line BO up (on 30 min bars do a 1,2,3 to see trend
channel up).
5. Price 2. 50M$ line bounce up or failure to BO down after crossing below
50ma line.
6. Price 3. (Bottom of cycle): 1. round Bottom (saucer) or live cat bounce.
or 2. double bottom or inverted head and shoulders.
7. stochastics (5 3 3). a. falls below 20% line (jim cochrane uses 35%) and
b. Break out up from below 20%.
You can see a little how this is becoming an anticipatory operation for
buying stocks.
Fulfilling the check sheet for the list worked out as follows as the future
unfolded (The fractal pair in use is the daily and the 30 minute bars. The
30 min bars trigger the trade on the daily):
(note the sell, for simplicity, would be the opposite of this stuff but
using the earliest signal instead of fullfilling all aspects; you need a
minimum of reasons to xit and on the other hand you need a flawless
situation to enter.)
BBRC buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on the 9 AUG 00; a 1/2 cycle of 5 days.
CHP buy on am of 3AUG 00; sell on 4 AUG 00; a 1/2 cycle of 2 days.
CHRW buy on am of 1 AUG 00; sell on 1 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 1 day.
buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on 10 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 6
days.
DPAC buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on 4 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 2 days.
buy on am of 9 AUG 00; sell on 9 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 1 days.
ELNT buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 3 days.
RATL buy on am of 2 AUG 00; sell on 2 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 1 day.
buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on 4 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 2 days.
XLTC buy on am of 2 AUG 00; sell on 2 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 1 day.
buy on am of 3 AUG 00; sell on 7 AUG; a 1/2 cycle of 3 days.
This would be your results for the period. To work through the compounding.
Look at it as though the capital is 350,000 dollars and you made a profit on
it as depicted by the income the trades generated. This lump divided by
350,000 gives you a value for the 9 day period you used up.
My base of reference is 50 trades (for the seven streams of 50,000 each in
this case) over three years where the cylce profit is 10% for a 6 to 8 day
period.
The improvements needed here are to keep money in the market instead of on
the sidelines as seen above. So the changing list everyday will help us on
that point. The list is a delete and add thing that flows along. It is the
nature of the market to be strange all the time, so you will notice trades
being longer or shorter and more or less profitable.
My Level A Overview for this kind of stuff states:
Smooth the rate of capital appreciation by rotating through stocks in each
stream of funds in orsder that you leave fading rates fo profits and go into
increasing rates of profits.
1. Hold the best capital appreciating stocks.
2. Replace the poorest performers with the best opportunites.
3. How long or short a duration that you trade varies, and
4. profits don't have limits either large or small.
My points of consideration vis a vis CJ were:
1. Go to quality stocks that are appreciating rapidly. The possible buy
list is for that purpose as it is drawn from such a universe.
2. Rate of compounding. I tried to illustrate that the market controls that
using the "natural ebb and flow. The example occurred in a very choppy
market as we all realize now.
3. Trailing indicators are not good to use. you can see by the manner of
doing the process, that we are running ahead of the stocks performance since
they are picked as they begin to fulfill the flawless requirements for
"buying". It is a leading approach. Note how the indicators are used to
connect calculus derivatives to their action and use the derivative aspect
to get signals sooner in anticipation rather than the standard lagging
signal points.
4. Eliminate holding through non trends.
I appreciate your observing the stocks on the list through the period I
suggested. Each one had 1/2 cycles for trading that came from the criteria
to get them on the list. I chart stocks so I can bring up a display of the
portfolios mentioned above to, on a daily basis, examine the opportunites
and let the market dictate the rest after they qualify as "buys". The sell
criteria is similar and I check that daily too after the close and write
down my plan for each stock for the next day. Ihe days drift along and I
continue to rotate through the opportunities that appear and disappear. I
generally fill in the time with commodities intraday trading one the 5 and 1
minute fractal pair..
"passat" <passat200...@lycosmail.com.invalid> wrote in message
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