Open Letter to Don Fishback
Dr. Dave
Dear Don-
I just received your new promotional piece entitled"How 2 Days Started
Me On The Road To A Fortune". Please indulge me a few comments, if you
would.
I have spoken to you several times on the phone-right after I purchased
your ODDS video 2 years ago, I called and you answered my questions. You
were friendly, open, and helpful. I did use the material you presented
in your video, but only as an adjunct to what I was already doing. As
we know, your formulas are purely mathematical, and do not take into
account any fundamentals whatsoever.
Than I began to get in the mail your promotional pieces: The fax
services you began to offer. For $250 per month, a daily fax; the
first offering was, I believe, for the futures market, and the second
mailing for the OEX. It was my belief, after talking to several brokers,
that in order to implement the OEX strategies, one would need $15000
to $25,000 to safely trade, (if there is such a thing as safely), your
recommendations. Which brings me to my point, Don. May I be blunt:
I do not feel your services are for the small trader. I also feel that
what you offer is way overpriced for the small trader. Your new seminar
is priced at $1995. I would recommend anyone who is thinking of taking
this seminar, or anyone who is thinking of using any of your services
to ask themselves, what is the whole package, my gross cost, of trading
the way you recommend, and indeed, why would anyone who is a successful
trader, and who makes their living from trading, feel the need to charge
exhorbinant (sic?) fees for their services. I try to put myself
in your position, and what i feel is that if I was a very successful
trader, I would want to charge reasonable fees for my services. Trading
is hard enough, my friend.
Respectfuly-
Dr. Dave
morg...@home.com
Don Fishback
Dear Dave,
I couldn't have said it better. The only two things I provide for traders
with small accounts is my ODDS video tape and my book, OPTIONS FOR
BEGINNERS.
Let me indulge in a self-serving explanation, if I may, of what it is that
I do and why.
I am absolutely certain that the best books on options have already been
written. At least the books for intermediate-level traders. I wanted to
write a book for beginners that could bridge the gap and get someone who
never traded options up to the level where they could pick up Larry
McMillan's book and understand it. ALL OF THE PROFITS GENERATED BY THAT
BOOK HAVE BEEN DONATED TO CHARITY. [Incidentally, in answer to someone
else's post, we did run a promotion where the first 500 people who ordered
the book could get a special report free of charge. I think that there was
one gentleman in this group who thought we were only selling 500 books
total.] It's not junk, but it is not for anyone who already thoroughly
understands options. It's OPTIONS FOR BEGINNERS.
Prior to writing the book, I created, along with Futures Magazine, a video
that describes the formulas for calculating probability based on the
probability assumptions implicit in the Black-Scholes option pricing model
[which, ironically, won the Nobel Prize for Economics today]. I didn't
invent the model, and I didn't create the assumptions. I simply explained
an EASY way to use a spreadsheet or a calculator to determine probability.
In an interesting extension, the video contained a special report
describing how one could come up with a probability assumption in advance
of placing a trade and then use the formulas to come up with an option
spread or strangle that met that probability criteria. THAT'S ALL IT DOES.
Incidentally, all the graphs and calculations were made using Lotus 123,
and I spell out clearly each and every one of the formulas necessary to
make probability calculations.
That was supposed to be the beginning AND the end of it, but it snowballed.
Futures Magazine sold thousands of those videos. It was (and, I believe,
still is) their best seller ever. I got bombarded with requests for
software that made the calculations. There were unbelievable numbers of
traders who found value in probability, but either didn't know how to use a
spreadsheet, or they didn't have time to "program" it themselves. I knew
nothing about programming. I mean, I had this stuff in a spreadsheet for
my own use. But a fellow named George Montgomery convinced me that I could
do it. So I sat down, learned how to program, and the result was ODDS
Trademaster. Incidentally, that software comes with a money back guarantee
-- if you use it to spot a trade, ANY TRADE, and it loses money, you can
have your money back. If it fails to work just once, you can return it.
That's why I am shocked that anyone would say anything negative about the
software on this forum. I mean, I'm not saying the methodology is perfect.
But I don't want to have one unhappy customer, so I make the guarantee
bullet proof. If you lose just once, you can have your money back.
After creating the software, I got hit with requests like, "I don't have
time to follow all the markets", or "I don't know how to use a computer"
[yes, there are folks who think the CD drive on a computer is a coffee cup
holder]. That's when I launched an ill-fated service, the ODDS FAX HOTLINE
which was exclusively devoted to futures options. The performance was
pathetic because I tried selling high implied volatility. The intention
was good, but the order execution was terrible. The markets that had high
implied volatility were coffee, cocoa, natural gas, etc. You get the
picture. It was nearly impossible to get spread orders executed at
favorable prices. Performance was dismal and I stopped the service in
December 1996.
That summer I started a service for stock index futures traders. The
profits on the service are okay. We had a terrific year last year, and
we're having an up year this year. As credit spread traders, we are
"short" volatility and, therefore, rising volatility hurts us. With the
level of volatility we are witnessing in the stock market in 1997, I'm
happy that we are ahead of the game. Anyone wanting to see a copy of the
track record since inception, INCLUDING THE BLEMISHES [I took a pretty good
whack in April], can call my office at 606-253-3672. By the way, the
service hasn't had a loser since April.
When I stopped the ODDS FAX HOTLINE, we introduced the ODDS BOND FAX
HOTLINE. Our performance has been terrific this year, with only two losing
trades. The track record on that service is also available.
Getting back to your point about the high fees for my services and my
seminar -- nearly EVERYTHING IS BASED ON THOSE ORIGINAL FORMULAS DISCLOSED
IN A $50 VIDEO. In other words, someone could buy the video and be done
with, just like you. Not too much else is necessary. The only reason we
offer anything else is because of customer requests. People seem to want
to duplicate what it is that I am doing.
I've been trading options since 1984. I was a CTA in 1986 through 1988.
In 1988, I was hired as an options analyst at a securities research firm
and I gave up my futures license to switch fields. Four years ago, I went
out on my own.
That was in 1993. At the time, I was disgusted because all I heard about
was risk/reward this, risk/reward that. I wanted to introduce the notion
of probability to the public. I mean, if risk and reward were the only two
factors that went into an investment decision, we should all be in the
business of buying lottery tickets. In other words, probability is the
missing ingredient. My video was designed to fill that missing gap.
Apparently, by the number of copycats who, some four years later, now use
my formulas in their software, it must have struck a powerful chord.
Dave, I agree that my services are not for small accounts. We openly
discourage anyone with a small account to not subscribe to our services or
buy our software or come to our seminars, unless they are doing it for
educational purposes only.
By design, I reveal the formulas in our lowest cost, introductory product.
That way, if someone wants to go it alone without spending another dime
with me, they're out $50 and that's it.
If, however, someone wants software that does it for them, or if they want
to implement the same trades that I do (and yes, I do trade my own
recommendations) then they're going to have to compensate my for my time.
My office is extremely small and can't handle a lot of volume, so I
specifically set the price high to discourage small accounts and to
discourage people from subscribing. That way our office could handle a
limited number of customers. That is why I charge a high fee for added
services.
You asked, why would a successful trader feel the need to charge
exhorbitant fees. To learn the formulas I use in my trading, I don't
charge a high fee. The bottom line is, if you want the formulas so that
you can do it yourself, your cost is $50. If you want to take me away from
my trading, that's a different story. The more hand-holding I give, the
more expensive it is going to be.
One thing I might add. Every one of the testimonials is true and
verifiable. Some come from folks who bought the original ODDS video, some
come from folks who bought the software, while most come from folks who
attended the seminar.
I know my post is going to provoke some negative responses. I hope that it
doesn't get too ugly. I am new to this group (I first logged on last week)
and I would like to continue participating. I don't mind getting
criticized when wrong. Greg Rupp, for example, correctly called it like he
saw it. But I'm not a thief and a scam artist. If people want to flame me
for responding to the barbs I've received lately, so be it. I invite all
responses. You can even call my office and voice your opinion verbally.
My phone number is 1-606-253-3672.
And Dave, I'm glad you're using the info in the video and modifying it to
your own needs. That's exactly what I wanted you to do.
TTFN,
Don
Rick Harle
On Wed, 15 Oct 1997 19:23:30 -0400, "Terry Williams"
<TW4...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>Looks like it wins a Nobel prize every day!!! Those Nobel prize people must
>be paying out millions for that fraudulent formula.
>
>It won the Nobel prize last year according to his mailings, then it won
>again yesterday, now it won again today!
>
>Are you all starting to understand Don's mentality. He is a sociopath. He
>can lie to anyone at any time and not feel any guilt what so ever.
Uh, between you and Don, YOU are the one one who is really making an
ass outa yerself there, scooter. After reading this thread forever, if
I decided to seriously play options, I would give Don a close look.
Thanks for that. Oh by the way, have you met Curious? Bet youse guys
could become best buds.
Chow Rick
Terry Williams
Looks like it wins a Nobel prize every day!!! Those Nobel prize people must
be paying out millions for that fraudulent formula.
It won the Nobel prize last year according to his mailings, then it won
again yesterday, now it won again today!
Are you all starting to understand Don's mentality. He is a sociopath. He
can lie to anyone at any time and not feel any guilt what so ever.
Here is another quote from Don't BS sales literature from TradeWins
publishing (the leader in trading scam sales).
Why am I Offering 500 Lucky people The Chance To Make Thousands Of
Dollars...for just $14.95? (bait and switch, he sales this crap to you then
tries to bilk you for thousands). Then he goes on to claim his most
honorable intention for selling ONLY 500 "Lucky People" this information is
to help raise money for The American Heart Association.
He CLEARLY implies he is only selling this method to 500 people. Why would
he imply this you might ask? The answer is quite simple. If people think
there will only be 500 sold they better act quick and buy it before it is
sold out! These guys are the slickest of the slick with their scamming
advertising. The AMA twist allows him to get a new customer to bilk for tons
of money to get to the next level of his scam. They don't miss a trick.
Don Fishback wrote in message <01bcd90a$a6fd74e0$df351cce@200pro>...
J. White
Terry Williams wrote:
> No I haven't met him...but he does seem to have more in common with you from
> what I have read of his posts. I feel you should buy Don's offerings if you
> read on the threads of my posts and came to that conclusion! Have fun. Make
> millions dude.
I'll be happy to buy Don's book and put it to the test. Don, email me
with the info.
*DO* expect an honest review.
--
J. White /\ ?
Lowly Chartist /\ / \/
Technical Heretic / \/
http://www.hooked.net/users/whitetek
/\ /\/
/\/ \ /\ /
/ \/ \/ CULT® ID:79-37645-562
Terry Williams
Rick Harle wrote in message <344940ae.9480241@news>...
>On Wed, 15 Oct 1997 19:23:30 -0400, "Terry Williams"
><TW4...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>
>>Looks like it wins a Nobel prize every day!!! Those Nobel prize people
must
>>be paying out millions for that fraudulent formula.
>>
>>It won the Nobel prize last year according to his mailings, then it won
>>again yesterday, now it won again today!
>>
>>Are you all starting to understand Don's mentality. He is a sociopath. He
>>can lie to anyone at any time and not feel any guilt what so ever.
>
>Uh, between you and Don, YOU are the one one who is really making an
>ass outa yerself there, scooter. After reading this thread forever, if
>I decided to seriously play options, I would give Don a close look.
>Thanks for that. Oh by the way, have you met Curious? Bet youse guys
>could become best buds.
>Chow Rick
No I haven't met him...but he does seem to have more in common with you from
Rick Harle
>
>Rick Harle wrote in message <344940ae.9480241@news>...
>>On Wed, 15 Oct 1997 19:23:30 -0400, "Terry Williams"
>><TW4...@mindspring.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Looks like it wins a Nobel prize every day!!! Those Nobel prize people
>must
>>>be paying out millions for that fraudulent formula.
>>>
>>>It won the Nobel prize last year according to his mailings, then it won
>>>again yesterday, now it won again today!
>>>
>>>Are you all starting to understand Don's mentality. He is a sociopath. He
>>>can lie to anyone at any time and not feel any guilt what so ever.
>>
>>Uh, between you and Don, YOU are the one one who is really making an
>>ass outa yerself there, scooter. After reading this thread forever, if
>>I decided to seriously play options, I would give Don a close look.
>>Thanks for that. Oh by the way, have you met Curious? Bet youse guys
>>could become best buds.
>>Chow Rick
>
>No I haven't met him...but he does seem to have more in common with you from
>what I have read of his posts. I feel you should buy Don's offerings if you
>read on the threads of my posts and came to that conclusion! Have fun. Make
>millions dude.
>
>
The point is, that despite what you have to say, it is all
meaningless, as you have an ax to grind. I believe trader's these days
will do their due diligence and arrive at informed opinions. I would
go to Don, check with his broker's, et al. Get the the info from the
source, and verifiable sources, rather than from a loud mouth. A loud
mouth, that none of us knows and none of us knows truly understood or
implemented correctly. The further I go and the more I learn, the more
I see that when approaches or systems are *truly* understood, they can
be profitable. Besides, I ain't lookin' to make a million, just a
livin', after breakin' my back for 50 pus years. Go take a cold
shower, and find something that works for *you*, scooter.
Chow,
Rick
J. White
Terry Williams wrote:
>
> An honest review...that is enough to send Don heading for the hills.
>
Not really...he's sending me the book and the video. When I get them I
will study, forward test, and report (as promised).
d...@nospam.com
"Terry Williams" <TW41312@aol..com> wrote:
>Here is my backtest of Don's "87.5%" winners. I have tried many scenarios
>but I see similar results with each variation.
>are my results, take them or leave them.
>snip
>The attached file is in text format. The close value of the data is all that
>is looked at in the backtest. The data looks strange (from Telescan) but is
>correct.
>
>begin 666 Backtest
>M(D1A=&4B+")4:6UE(BPB3R(L(D@B+"),(BPB0R(L(E8B+")/22(L(E-Y<W1E
>M;2!0<F]F:70B#0H-"C$Q+S(S+SDR+#$V,34L-#(V+C8U+# N,# L-#(V+C8U
>M+#0R-"XY-2PT,C4L,"PQ.# P+C P#0HQ,2\R-"\Y,BPQ-C$U+#0R.2XS,2PP
snip
Please help a newsgroup neophyte! How do I make sense of this text
file?
Terry Williams
Funny, his book never "clearly" states this nor does his ODDS fax service
adhere to it. It still fails even at 20 trading days (4 weeks back). It just
takes in less premium and fails slightly less often. (This is not a
communication to Don...it is a post to the group.) Another example of Don
manipulating the facts as he goes.
Don Fishback wrote in message <01bcdd90$1872b110$28301cce@200pro>...
>Terry,
>
>At least now I know why you got incorrect results!
>
>Page 6 and 7 of the book you take issue with states, "During the past
>decade, the month-to-month change in the S&P 500 has been less than five
>percent 87.5% of the time."
>
>Additionally, the example contained in the special report uses April
>options (which expire in mid-April) in a trade that assumes an
>implementation date of March 15.
>
>Terry, where did you come up with 8 weeks? There are only 4 weeks (20-23
>trading days) in a month, not 8 weeks (40 trading days)!
>
>By extending the period, you *geometrically* decrease the probability of
>remaining within the 5% range.
>
>Thus it is not surprising, in fact, it is expected, that you found only
>about 60%-65% of the trades were winners.
>
>A simple call to my office would have corrected your confusion.
>
>Don
>--
>od...@mis.net
>
>In explaining the assumptions in his methodology where he tested my system,
>Terry Williams wrote:
>
>> All credit spreads are put on 40 trading days (8 weeks) before
>expiration. Debits or credit are
>> tallied at expiration.
d...@nospam.com
rha...@athens.net (Rick Harle) wrote:
>Simple, You can't!
>Rick
Thanks for the answer. Thats my conclusion, too. I've seen several of
these type messages on usenet--- do you have any idea how they were
created? Are they writing in an incompatible program or encrypting the
message or something? Not to mention why would someone intentionally
load 1600 lines of garbage on this group?
prestel.co.uk
Trade confirmed from: d...@nospam.com Order details:
>rha...@athens.net (Rick Harle) wrote:
>Thanks for the answer. Thats my conclusion, too. I've seen several of
>these type messages on usenet--- do you have any idea how they were
>created? Are they writing in an incompatible program or encrypting the
>message or something? Not to mention why would someone intentionally
>load 1600 lines of garbage on this group?
There attachements, you use the option (if you have it) to save
attachments. Though invariably the files posted are corrupt, so in
many cases can't be recovered.
Text posts for text groups !
Mr 50%
______________________________________________________
* Time Tells Trend - Dow Site at :- *
* http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/6284/index.html *
*______________________________________________________*
Troutman, Defender of Sticks
Terry Williams <TW41312@aol..com> wrote in article
<62gqjg$2...@snews2.zippo.com>...
> Funny, his book never "clearly" states this nor does his ODDS fax service
> adhere to it.
Wait a minute; you're saying that your version of the book doesn't say
this? What's on page 6 and 7 of your book?
> It still fails even at 20 trading days (4 weeks back). It just
> takes in less premium and fails slightly less often.
You re-ran the tests? Are you going to publish the different results?
It would be interesting to see.
Sticks
--
Troutman, Defender of Sticks (aka) Jonathan Matte, President
trou...@teleport.com Defender Capital Management
Introducing Broker
http://www.teleport.com/~troutman
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