"Profitable Investing"- Richard E. Band
Rick Sidelnik
Investing" He predicts that long term interest rates will start dropping and
as a result, we could double our investment in 2 years by buying zero-cupon
bonds now. He likes Mutual Beacon and GTE. He suggests dumping any funds
with gold , metals, or industrial materials like Fidelity Value, Fidelity
Select Materials, Price New Era and also most
iternational funds (especially Japan and Europe).
He thinks that '95 will be worse for most funds than '94 was. Do any of you
follow this guy? Does anyone know anything about the track record of Richard
E. Band? It's amazing how many sample newsletters I get; their opinions sure
differ.
side...@bga.com
Jerry Horton
I've been a subscriber of Band's for quite a while, first in the 1970s
and 1980s when he was editor of "Personal Finance," and since 1990 when
he started "Profitable Investing." I'd say his track record is quite good.
He hits a lot of singles and doubles, a few triples, and the occasional
home run, and doesn't strike out too often. He is definitely a value
investor, not a crowd follower.
Right now he recommends a fifty-fifty split between stocks (mostly income
producing) and bonds. He's leery of putting too much money into U.S. stocks,
thinking there will be a pullback before summer. Last fall he urged his
readers to gobble up long-dated zeros like Exxon (SeaRiver Maritime) 2012,
and the Benham Target Maturities Trust 2015 and 2020. These have done well
in the last few months, but at the moment he says wait for a retreat to
where the U.S. Treasury 30-yr bond yields 7.7% before buying any more.
His latest issue recommends buying a few Latin American stocks for the
10 percent or so of his Model Portfolio devoted to international issues:
Symbol Buy below: Current price (3/7 10:10):
TelMex TMX 40 25 5/8
Banco Frances BFR 16 10 7/8
Telecom Argentina TEO 40 26 1/2
Bolivian Power BLP 23 21 5/8
As you can see, these are all screaming buys in Band's book.
He thinks the markets are overreacting to the Mexican peso problems,
and believes these issues will appreciate a lot in the next two years.
Band's Model Portfolio has made money in each of the five years PI has
been out, beating or matching the averages at far less risk.
I plan to renew my subscription.
-Jerry
Steve Ellison
played a major part in shaping my investment approach. In
fact, I bought bond mutual funds three months ago [:-)] because,
in my estimation, the bond market was about as pessimistic as
it could possibly get -- a condition I learned to look for from
Mr. Band's book.
It's very interesting to hear him say something like this now
when so much investment discussion focuses on the U.S.
deficit and the decline of the dollar. The goldbugs have a lot
of explaining to do. Why have these well-known problems
not already caused gold to soar? And, given that the market
never discounts anything twice, what makes them think these
problems will move gold's price in the future?
Steve Ellison
Jerry Horton
I've been a subscriber of Band's for quite a while, first in the 1970s
and 1980s when he was editor of "Personal Finance," and since 1990 when
he started "Profitable Investing." I'd say his track record is quite good.
He hits a lot of singles and doubles, a few triples, and the occasional
home run, and doesn't strike out too often. He is definitely a value
investor, not a crowd follower.
Right now he recommends a fifty-fifty split between stocks (mostly income
producing) and bonds. He's leery of putting too much money into U.S. stocks,
thinking there will be a pullback before summer. Last fall he urged his
readers to gobble up long-dated zeros like Exxon (SeaRiver Maritime) 2012,
and the Benham Target Maturities Trust 2015 and 2020. These have done well
in the last few months, but at the moment he says wait for a retreat to
where the U.S. Treasury 30-yr bond yields 7.7% before buying any more.
His latest issue recommends buying a few Latin American stocks:
Symbol Buy below: Current price (3/7 10:10):
TelMex TMX 40 25 5/8
Banco Frances BFR 20 10 7/8
Telecom Argentina TEO 45 26 1/2
Ilana Stern
> He thinks that '95 will be worse for most funds than '94 was. Do any of you
> follow this guy? Does anyone know anything about the track record of Richard
> E. Band? It's amazing how many sample newsletters I get; their opinions sure
> differ.
What is interesting -- I received the same sample/come-on -- is that
so far, Band is the only newsletter-guy who actually made specific
recommendations in the sample. Most of the other "sample newsletters"
say things like, "Here's where the action is: REITs. And if you
subscribe to my newsletter, I'll share with you the name of my favorite
REIT...." But Band actually named names (in both positive and negative
contexts) which makes him sound much more credible to me (and which
enables me to actually check and see how "on" he is).
--
/\ "How to Lose Weight, Increase Your Sex Appeal and Make a Fortune on the
\_][ Information Superhighway" would outsell the Bible, at least briefly.
\___http://www.ucar.edu/dss/ilana.html il...@ncar.ucar.edu | (C. Arthur)
Greg Marciniak
I like Richard Band but I don't think he is right on zero-coupon
bonds. Interestingly, both Adrian Day and Richard Band worked together
at the Personal Finance newsletter before branching out on their own.
Currently they are at odds it appears. Adrian thinks US bonds are not
the place to be nor does Elliot Wave Theorist nor does Albert Sindlinger.
The problem is the debt structure of the US. We have too much of it
and too much of it requires external financing. With the failure of the
balanced budget amendment in Congress and the US association with
Mexican peso problems, the dollar is taking a pounding. The $20B we are
bailing out Mexico with is the money usually used to defend the dollar.
Foreigners will not be wanting to purchase dollar denominated debt
without a lot higher couponed rate of return. There have also been many
references I have read lately to a growing global liquidity squeeze. The
Kobe quake in Japan is heading for $150B at the last figure I heard and
the Japanese are pulling money home. The next major California quake which
a number of people have predicted for later this year would compound the
problem if it occurs.
Even without the California quake these things mean we will have more
debt and more competition for the money to finance it. This does not
protend lower long rates. It is market driven and the supply of debt is
exceeding the demand, especially with our trade deficit flooding the
world with dollars which are rapidly becoming worth less.... or should
that be worthless.
Elliot Wave Theorist and Sindlinger have been extremely accurate on
predicting interest rates when taken together lately. Currently
EWT is looking for in excess of 9% probably 9.5% by year end. Sindlinger
is confirming higher long rates ahead and says they are not related to
inflationary pressures but derivative losses.The current rally is the lull
before the storm.
A currency analyst on CNBC this morning predicted a dollar rally ahead
and a furthur 15% fall vis-a-vis the SW and DM before year end. This is
not going to lead to lower rates.
Gold/silver should have bottomed in a 2 year cycle low as we speak.
Greg Marciniak