A Petrocollapse Timeline
Mark Graffis
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A Petrocollapse Timeline
by Albert Bates 26 November 2009 Since the early two thousand oughts
we pessimistas have been trying to discern the shape of the backside
of Mr. Hubberts curve. John Michael Greer has made a strong case
for catabolic collapse, which could be described as a stair-step
down from the present peak, punctuated by precipitous drops (the
147-dollar oil spike; the Lehman default; the ARMs race) and level
treads (Green Shoots, the Morning in America phase we are currently
re-hallucinating).
Catabolic collapse may describe the micro-view, but in coming decades
the decline curve has a number, and whether that number is 2 (the
grade of the uphill climb we traversed over the past 100 years) or
7 (halving every ten years) matters.
At the Local Futures conference in Michigan on November 14, Richard
Douthwaite joined others, myself included, in predicting something
in the 7 to 9 range, which places him in the pessimista camp, whether
he likes the association or not. A splendid analysis published
November 23 at the Oil Drum by Tony ace Erikson follows a more
benign 3 degree slope (1.6 to 2.4 mbd/a), and offers a very nifty
view of the next few years. I have taken the liberty of combining
aces charts with an overlaying fabric of possible socio-political
reactions.
Here is the projected decline slope, derived by subtracting new
supplies now being developed from anticipated depletion of existing
supply, with an overlay of expected prices:
Here is the projection of just the new additions, which typically
take 8 to 10 years to develop after discovery, assuming the product
price justifies the expense to develop (which it does in this case),
together with a possible socio-political overlay for the United
States.
Going by these charts it is safe to say that the next few years
should be very lively. Stick around.
* * * * *
Albert Bates is author of The Post-Petroleum Survival Guide and
Cookbook and founder of Global Village Institute for Appropriate
Technology. When not inventing fuel wringers for algae or pyrolizing
cookstoves, he teaches permaculture, village design and natural
building. Albert blogs at peaksurfer.blogspot.com.
Further Reading:
"Our Post-Peak Oil Future" Jan Lundberg versus John Michael Greer
re collapse scenario
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