Future Low Life Free Mp3 Download

[Neomi Schlensker]

Background: Projections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model.

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Methods: We developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to project age-specific mortality to 2030 in 35 industrialised countries with high-quality vital statistics data. We used age-specific death rates to calculate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, and probability of dying before age 70 years, with life table methods.

Findings: Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men. There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 867 years, the same as the highest worldwide life expectancy in 2012, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. Projected female life expectancy in South Korea is followed by those in France, Spain, and Japan. There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years. Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women. The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains. More than half of the projected gains in life expectancy at birth in women will be due to enhanced longevity above age 65 years.

Interpretation: There is more than a 50% probability that by 2030, national female life expectancy will break the 90 year barrier, a level that was deemed unattainable by some at the turn of the 21st century. Our projections show continued increases in longevity, and the need for careful planning for health and social services and pensions.

I originally wrote this post and planned it to run last Monday. But, irony of ironies, it got bumped to this week because I got told about our acquisition of OpenEye Scientific, which we announced that day. The post I wrote then was Cadence Expands into Molecular Simulation with Acquisition of OpenEye Scientific. So already, Cadence is in part of the life-sciences sector.

Some of those topics on the right-hand side of the slide are adjacent to EDA...but not very adjacent. But it turns out that life sciences and biology are more adjacent than you might think. There is already work going on using EDA algorithms in biology, medicine, and brain science. On day 3 of DAC, there was a panel session on just this topic, titled What Is the Role of the EDA Community in Future Life Science Breakthroughs? The quantity of the audience was not large, but the quality was high (me for one!), with several members of the DAC executive committee and a couple of VPs of R&D from companies you know well. I won't name any names since I didn't ask permission.

One example is Rent's rule (which relates the number of I/Os required for a block containing a given number of computing elements). In both cases, EDA and biology, 0.5 to 0.7th power of the number of "gates" gives the number of "pins." He then listed several papers that connect EDA algorithms to life science.

Q Audience: It looks like EDA + Life Science is a small field [gesturing to the small audience]. Variability, system complexity, reliability. It looks like these are all really difficult for bio-life. So how do we tackle them?

We believe the life insurance industry faces a pivotal, dual opportunity: the chance to fulfill growing customer needs while returning to profitability and growth. To achieve these goals, we expect winning life insurance companies to outperform in three areas in the decade ahead:

A shift to targeted health management. Life insurers have long maintained a focus on mortality protection, but concern over mortality risk has diminished in many markets, which has reduced demand for core products. Despite recent increases in online research for life insurance, spurred by COVID-19, the long-term decline of mortality risk is likely to continue. In the coming decade, insurers will play an increasingly prominent role in the health of their customers as life expectancy increases and health trends change.

This trend has accelerated during the pandemic. Evidence shows that a higher proportion of consumers are willing to share data collected on their watches related to heart rate. In recent months, life insurance companies have relied on more detailed questions and medical records instead of in-person physical exams, which have not been possible with physical distancing.

New capital regulations accompanied the globally depressed rates. For example, the introduction of Solvency II in 2016 in the European Union increased capital requirements for traditional life and annuity products, putting further pressure on profitability. Consumers will continue to seek out guaranteed returns, which means many insurers will face challenges in offering guarantees in a capital-efficient, profitable manner. Collectively, traditional long-term, fixed-rate guaranteed products will undergo a paradigm shift in structure, from being rooted in guaranteed returns to offering upside potential with guaranteed downside protection.

Several life insurance companies have already begun moving their portfolios toward a wide variety of capital-markets products, specifically hybrids and unit-linked products, that are more capital efficient and perform well in a low-rate environment. From 2015 to 2019, unit-linked premiums rose $76 billion globally, with European life insurance companies accounting for two-thirds of global growth (Exhibit 8). Such products may offer customers upside potential coupled with downside protection (as high as 100 percent). That said, capital preservation is not free; whether in commissions, expense ratios, or yield, customers pay for it.

Regardless of interest-rate movement, previous fixed-rate guarantees, coupled with new regulations and customer education around alternatives, will likely keep life insurance companies focused on capital-light products in the decade ahead.

Flexible offerings, which allow the consumer to adjust coverage throughout the life of the policy, have been met with favor in Japan. For example, a leading Japanese insurer offers medical, asset accumulation, and protection against dread disease and mortality wrapped into a single product, enabling the customer to add or reduce coverage as their circumstances change.

Value-added services and nonmonetary benefits. Over the next decade, product innovation will likely expand to adjacent services. Life insurance companies, which are competing with not only their peers but also industry alternatives such as pure wealth and asset managers, will increasingly seek to differentiate themselves through value-added services and nonmonetary benefits, particularly as life and health coverage continue to converge.

In Asia and Europe, life insurance companies are already offering administrative support for medical visits,health management, and telemedicine. Going forward, these companies could also partner with ridesharing companies and hotels to provide transportation to doctor visits or accommodations for loved ones in times of need.

Nonmonetary benefits can also address the risk needs of policyholders. For customers concerned with the cost of living in retirement, life insurance companies in Asia and the United Kingdom are replacing financial payouts with guaranteed placement in senior living communities.

In the war for digital talent, life insurance companies are at a disadvantage. The financial-services industry trails other sectors in volume of digital and tech talent. In fact, 80 percent of millennials say they have limited knowledge of the insurance industry,9Millennial generation attitudes about work and the insurance industry, a joint paper from The Institutes and Griffith Insurance Education Foundation, 2012, theinstitutes.org. a troubling sign for an industry in which 25 percent of employees believe themselves to be within five to ten years of retirement. However, COVID-19 and recent social unrest present an opportunity for life insurers to reframe their societal purpose, which may help recruit and retain exceptional talent.

By collaborating with actuaries and understanding the implications on the cost model, life insurance companies can often lock in savings and have a onetime release of reserves that is typically in the ten-to-one range (this ratio differs by company). In other words, for every $1 million saved in long-term in-force servicing costs on the closed block, there could be a $10 million onetime reserve release. Life insurance companies often use these funds to finance the transition of the closed blocks to a target platform, invest in digital and analytics, and wide-scale productivity transformations. The reserve can also be used in other ways to reduce the ongoing unit costs.

The prevalence of closed-block specialists will also spark increased sales by insurance companies beyondUS and UK markets, where activity has been high. Specialists, whose scale facilitates lower costs per policy, have proven themselves to be effective operators. Moreover, closed-block sales can provide life insurance companies with immediate access to capital, derisked balance sheets, and a reduction in operational costs, such as legacy IT systems. But life insurance companies must remain open to exploring sales, and they can limit the risk of undervaluing their blocks by keeping an eye on the cost base, considering improvements, and structuring partnerships with potential buyers.

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