| Weekly Technical Analysis |
 | |
| 18 May 2015 |
| - By
Vivek Patil, India's foremost expert in Elliot Wave
Analysis |
|
-
Sensex trades inside
previous week's range, nets 0.8%.
-
India Inc's revenue &
profits at 2-year lows in Q4.
-
China cuts Interest rates by
25 bps.
-
India crosses a billion
telephone numbers.
-
IIP slows to 5-month low of
2.1% in 'March.
-
Rupee falls to 20-month
low.
-
WPI slips to -2.65% in
'April, triggering hopes of rate-cut.
-
"Bad loans haven't peaked
yet" - says RBI Governor.
-
Petrol / Diesel prices hiked
by Rs. 3.13 and Rs.2.71, respectively.
-
Exports down 14% in 'April,
5th straight monthly fall.
-
PM visits China, deals worth
$22 billion signed.
-
SEBI planning to increase
contract size for F&O counters.
-
High Court overturns
Jayalalitha's conviction in corruption case.
|
Sensex keeps below 27604, still holding
lower end of the Falling Channel |
[Technical readings carried forward from previous weeks
are shown in italics. Readers can easily identify the new arguments which
are written in regular font]
Last week we discussed, “low was exactly touching the
lower end of the ‘Falling Channel’ from this year’s top …
The channel
encloses ‘Lower Top Lower Bottom’ formation from 4th Mar … the question is whether
the Sensex would now recover all the way up to test the
upper end of the channel … For +ve possibility,
Index needs to retrace 27604 (Nifty 8356) in faster time… if the
Index fails to move above 27604 (8356) in the next 2 days, -ve
options could open … ability of the Sensex to
generate ‘faster retracement’ above 27604 (8256), and hold a ‘higher
bottom’ (compared to last week) thereafter, would be the crucial
events …
”
Sensex did move higher on Monday
with a gap-up action, but failed to cross 27604 (8256). Indeed,
the failure to
cross 27604 (8256) resulted in 794-pt reversal intra-week by Wednesday. Index, however, also
held a “higher bottom” as we mentioned, as it
got supported at
previous Friday’s gap-up area seen on the Intra-day
chart, and slowly recovered 630 pts by Friday to settle 219 pts 0.8%
higher. It formed a High Wave candle for the week, the high-low
range of which was enclosed inside the previous
week.
Except Realty (down 3%) and
Metal (down 0.7%), all other sectors ended flat to +ve.
Indeed, PSU Banks
and Auto sectors outperformed, added 2.5-3.9% each. The broader
BSE Small-Cap & Mid-Cap Indexes also gained
2-3%.
Overall, Index still appears
holding itself near the lower end of the “falling Channel” from its Mar’15 highs. This
channel, remember, encloses two equal drops of about
2700-pts on Sensex (exactly 850 pts on
Nifty).
Index also appears struggling to
hold the Base-Line and 200-day EMA we showed on the following
chart, and hasn’t yet formed a “lower top lower bottom” formation
below them.
However, Index was unable to generate an upside
“faster retracement” beyond 27604 (8256) during the
week, and went into
sideways “contraction” with “smaller” legs.
As per
NEoWave, “faster retracement” of last leg of any pattern would be
the sign of completion of previous structure, and beginning of a new
structure within that degree. Failure continues the existing
structure.
Technical Analysis believes prices always move
in “logical” trends. From 4th Mar, Index dropped about
2700 pts in 15-16 days, and recovered 1800 pts in 10 days. The next
drop was also 2700 pts. On Nifty, both the drops
were exactly 849 pts.
This formed into a “Falling
Channel” we showed. When two drops are equal, Flat to +ve technical
options can open. We are watching the lower channel from that
perspective.
Market has chosen to trade volatile in a flat
range at current levels, which usually means a difficult environment
for traders. Market is going through a churning, as Bull and
Bears fight for the lower end of the falling
channel.
It would, in such a case, be prudent
to trade smaller
quantities. So, do not look beyond a day until further
clarity.
So far inside the fall from ‘Mar highs,
all smaller “rising” segments were retraced on downside in “faster”
time. Last week’s action provides first contrary example. Index
actually held previous week’s bottom, traded sideways at the lower
end of the falling channel.
The question is whether such
“contraction” is digesting all the negativity, and developing as a
“basing” formation, and whether the action would break on the upside
eventually. We are watching 27604 (8256) as initial sign of upward breakout from the
“contraction”.
After Mar’15, we mentioned Index could lose
25% from its highs near 30K to test 22500 (Nifty 6750) as per
Jan-Top Cycle and 2-Year Cycle, etc. The question is whether Index
would first test channel’s upper end before that, or
…
The current 19-day fall
shows “overlapping” structure, i.e. a “corrective” pattern like
Diametric, and not an “impulse”. The question is whether g-leg will “fail”, OR turn out to
be “normal” by achieving equality with a-leg.
Friday’s action formed a small
Bull candle, but Nifty Future dropped
into discount with Spot after a long time. So, failure to
sustain above Friday can keep the action lackluster initially during
the week.
Thereafter, weakness/close below
Friday’s low of 27159 (Nifty 8212 and NF 8215) could break the 3-day
support line shown on the initial Daily chart, and turn the Index
lackluster. Watch if it holds a higher bottom once
again.
As mentioned, above, Index is into
“contraction” since 5th May, as none of the up-down
leg has been retraced, and each subsequent leg has been “smaller”
than immediately previous leg. We may continue to be careful
at current levels, until the action shows full and faster
retracement of a leg in either
direction.
_________________________________________________________________________________
The
dollex-30, based on the Dollar-converted value of Sensex, is already
below its 16th May’14 high,
though it has not broken below the lows of 16th May. Those who bought
Indian stocks in Dollars on 16th May, mainly FIIs, are
currently at even levels, one year after buying on election
results.
This brings forth FIIs, who were
major investors in the Indian equity in the last one year, as the
biggest factor to watch under the
circumstances.
As
per SEBI data, the Net FII Investment in Indian equity was Rs.270615
crs at ‘2008 high. At this year’s high, their net investment
ballooned to Rs.800063. Thus, if the SEBI data is
correct, then FIIs brought in an additional Rs.529500 crs during the
last 6 years.
As can be
seen on the following Dollex-30 chart, the Dollar-converted
value of Sensex is still 21% below its ‘2008 peak. The question
is whether FIIs would save Index from falling to pre-election result
levels, or …
Technically, the question is also whether FII
action leads to a decisive break of the Arithmetic Base-Line and
200-day EMA, and most important, the Oct’14 low of 25910 (Nifty
7723), which we marked as
the starting point of the last Corrective inside Triple Combination
from Aug’13.
Eventually, if the Sensex does break
17th Oct’14
low of 25910 (Nifty 7723), then the 3rd Corrective as well as the
Triple would be confirmed over.
As we mentioned
last week, NEoWave lays down 60-70% retracement of a Triple as
its post-pattern implication. Since the Triple Combination
started from 17449 (Nifty 5119) and ended at 30025 (Nifty 9119),
i.e. 12576 (Nifty 4000) pts., a 60-70% retracement
could project about 22500 (Nifty about
6750).
We have been cautioning
investors since the beginning of ‘2015 because Index had achieved
breakout implication of 5-year Ascending Triangle from ‘2008 to ‘2013. It was
warned that in 14
out of last 15 years, the top was made around Januaryof each
Calendar Year.
The Sensex top at 30K levels was
exactly the Grid level as per VP’s Grid Levels System (GLS). It
was also pointed out thatIndex looked “|overstretched” after
rallying for 12 quarters, which was a situation similar to major top
of ‘2008.
Indeed, based on Nifty PE Ratio,
we warned that market appears to be near “
Bubble
Territory ”. And
that Index shows
tendency to lose about 25-30% on an average every 2 years. The
last instance was in ‘2013, when it lost only 13%, but 2 years are
over since then.
Structurally, we had assumed Index is
forming last (3rd) corrective inside a Triple Combination
rally from Aug’13
onwards.
Break below
17th Oct’14
lows (the starting point of the 3rd Corrective structure) would
finally confirm a major top formation for the market, and open
larger -ve options for
“investors”.
If 3rd Corrective is a Triangle,
then “e” would be its last leg. As we know, Triangle is a
5-legged pattern. However, the
3rdcorrective could add 2 more legs, “f” and “g”, before
it finishes off as a “Diamond-Shaped” 7-legged
Diametric.
As per NEoWave, Complex
Corrective involving x-waves usually get contained inside a parallel
channel.
By
NEoWave, the 3rd Corrective of the Triple
can break the channel, if it develops as a Triangle or
Diametric. However, break below
17th Oct,
the starting point of the 3rd would leave no doubt that
the 3rd Corrective, and therefore,
the higher-degree Triple is
completed.
A Triple Combination rally
carries Pattern Implication of 60% to 70% retracement. Since the
Triple from Aug’13 to Mar’15 measured 12576 pts (Nifty 4000 pts),
its 60-70%
retracement could see Index testing minimum 22500 levels (Nifty
about 6700 levels)
eventually.
Testing 22500 (Nifty
6700) levels would also mean about 25-30% fall from the top
levels of
30025 (Nifty 9119), which as we fear has been a normal thing to
happen every two years ever since ‘2004, as we showed on the chart
below.
As per this 2-year cycle, Sensex’ comes under
pressure every 2 years beginning ‘2004 (lost 33%), ‘2006 (lost 31%),
‘2008 (lost 63%), 2010 (lost 28%) and Jan’2013 (lost 13% as per
‘2012 cycle).
From
Jan’2013 onwards, no substantial loss was seen so far, and the same
may now be due. Accordingly, this year, Index has
lost about 10% so far, which compares with 13% and 28% loss in
immediately preceding two cycles of ‘2012 and ’2010
:
The 22500 level is also close to
previous major tops of ‘2008 & ‘2010, and is also the lowest
level of "Sensex Trajectory". It is also
value of the line joining ‘2003 & ‘2009
bottoms.
The monthly action for May’15 formed into ELB.
It was the 2nd such ELB in 4 months.
Remember, month of Dec’14 had also formed into an
ELB.
The
Dec’14 ELB did not, however, show -ve follow-up below its low during
Jan’15. However, repeated occurrence of
ELBs would suggest an overheated market, wherein higher levels are
getting sold into.
We had also observed that usually the
1st Quarter
of the Calendar Year usually forms a significant top. Indeed, as
we had pointed out, such tops were formed in
14 out of last 15 years, as can be checked on the chart
above.
We also raised a
question whether
the 22-day pattern from 10th Feb completed as the
“Extracting Triangle” (ET). The ET
possibility has been marked in White as "e?", and its lower-degree
a-b-c-d-e structure can be seen on intra-day chart. Its internal
development shows rallies getting smaller (e < c < a) &
drops bigger (d >
b).
Sensex almost exactly achieved VP’s Grid
level of 30050 shown on the following chart :
Sensex also achieved target level of 30000+ we had
set out last year on 26th May’14 as the “minimum”
implication for a breakout from an Ascending Triangle pattern from
‘2008 onwards, as per the labels we showed on the following chart
:
Meanwhile, the Nifty PE Ratio entered
“
Bubble
Territory ” above
23.50, as we've shown on the following chart.
The
PE Ratio data has been taken from nseindia.com, and pertains to 50
stocks constituting the Nifty
Index.
Historically, Nifty
PE Ratio has oscillated between 10-11 (lowest) and 28-30
(highest). We are terming PE Ratio below 14.50 as
“Investors’ Territory”, and above 23.50 as “
Bubble
Territory ”.
Historically, market hits a major top
within 2-4 months of entering into the “
Bubble
Territory ”. As can
be checked on the chart above, it did so during Feb’2000, Jan’2008
and Oct’2010.
Each of the entries into “
Bubble
Territory ” is generally
led by specific group of stocks. The Feb’2000 Bubble was led by IT
stocks, Jan’2008 Bubble was led by Reliance Group/Property stocks,
and Oct’2010 Bubble was led by Banks/PSUs. Thelatest entry
into Bubble Territory was led by Pharma
stocks..
Based on the following Quarterly chart, we had
pointed out that market is now into an “overstretched” zone.
Indeed, after 12
Quarterly UP ticks, the situation looks similar to ‘2008, when
market corrected significantly after 12 UP ticks on the Quarterly
chart.
The likely Sensex trajectory for the new
year ‘2015 could be provided by the channel shown on the following
Yearly chart :
As we saw previously during ‘1988 to ‘1994, and again
from ‘2003 to ‘2007, Sensex’ bull phase trajectory is usually
contained in 2 parallel lines roughly. Sensex, in the
past, maintained
its trajectory for 5 years or 7 years, before breaking
it.
The current trajectory began from ‘2012,
and ‘2015 would be
4th year in
this trajectory, which could break either during ‘2017 or ‘2019,
if the past is any indication.
For the fresh
year ‘2015, the trajectory projects 32800 on the upside and 22800 on
the downside.
The current trajectory is at
a lower angle (about 30 degrees), as
compared to previous 2 trajectories of 1988-94 and 2003-2007. The
angle of ascent for both was identical at 60 degrees. The lower angle of
current trajectory has been despite heavy FII Inflows and political
change.
Technical readings
carried forward from previous
weeks
On a bigger scale, we are now closely
watching if 13-month long F is getting matured near the upper end of
the channel enclosing it. The channeled F from Aug’13 consists of
two Diametric corrective patterns joined by “x”. It was also pointed out that the 2nd Corrective achieved “external”
equality with the
1st Corrective at
25376.
Once the 2nd Corrective Diametric is
confirmed over, by way of 1503+ pts fall retracing “g” in faster
time, the Sensex may test lower end of the
channel. Protecting lower channel and 61.8%
retracement level of the 2nd Corrective would force us
to mark the fall as 2nd “x” inside the larger
F.
However, if the Sensex eventually
weakens below the lower channel and 61.8% retracement
level of the 2nd Corrective, it would
indicate that F completed as Double Diametric, and the larger
downward G has
opened.
Structurally, since Feb’14, Index is
yet to retrace any of its rallying segment completely in a “faster”
time.
Since Aug’13, when F began, the
biggest fall was seen on the day of Election Results, about 1503
pts. A fall bigger than 1503 pts, which also retraces “g” in faster
time, would confirm completion of Diametric in the
2nd corrective from
Feb’14.
The disparity between Sensex and broader
market was shown on the comparative chart
below.
The broader market
outperformed Sensex from Nov’13 onwards, and its out-performance was
especially significant from 16th May onwards, the day of
Election Results, as can be seen on the
chart.
In the meanwhile, investors
may keep a tab on the risk factors. Major event like
Election Results, Budget, are now behind us. Hope rally has played
out. FIIs selling
off is a risk factor, though, So far, this
has not yet played out on any meaningful
scale.
Another set of risk factor would be
Global, like Dow breaking its base-line on its monthly chart,
etc.
On one higher degree, we considered
post-Aug’13 development to be F leg of a larger Diametric formation
from ‘2008onwards as shown on the chart
below.
This long-term scenario marking the
larger Diametric was published on 6th Feb’12. This Diametric
assumption, as was argued,compared well with the 11-year
Diametric formation previously seen during ‘1992 to
‘2003.
As shown on the chart
above, F is the
“Expanding” leg of the 7-legged Diametric from ‘2008. In the
previous instance of the Diametric during ‘1992-’2003 period, F leg had hit new highs
during ‘2000.
In other words, F leg of the
diametric making new highs is nothing new. After hitting new highs
during ‘2000, G leg went down till
‘2003.
We argued for a Diametric
development from ‘2008 onwards because we observed time-similarity
within its legs, which is symptomatic of such a pattern. So far, most of the
legs, except B and D,
have consumed exactly about 13 months.
On
the monthly Close-only chart given below, one can see Sensex
crossing previous highs, indeed taking their support for reaching
further newer highs for the F leg :
We may watch if Sensex shows maturity
signs at current levels and starts
cracking.
We considered this alternate
scenario when Sensex moved above 2008-10 highs. It shows corrective phase
from ‘2008 completing as a 5-legged Ascending Triangle. This
scenario can open much higher targets, 30000+ for
Sensex.
The 30000+
target is nothing but 100% (+/- 25%) breakout implication of the
largest leg of the
Triangle.
According to
NEoWave, corrective phase should consume more time than the move it
is correcting. After the 56-month rally from May‘2003 to
Jan’2008, Sensex has corrected for 67 month from Jan’2008 to Aug-13,
i.e. a larger period as required under
NEoWave.
We may consider the above
scenario if the up-move from Aug’13 onwards stretches above
25500-26000 price-wise, and beyond Aug-Sep’14
time-wise.
The
following picture should throw some light on the post-election movement
on the Sensex since ‘1980 onwards :
Since ‘1980, major up-moves were seen
mainly after formation of a Congress-led
government.
Now that a BJP-led
Government is taking over, and has a clear mandate for development
and governance, we’ll watch if a new era is
taking over, wherein previous historical political parameters will
get
challenged.
By NEoWave logics, complete and faster
retracement of the last upward leg, would confirm that the Diametric
structure inside the 2nd corrective is
over. Look how
faster retracement of the 6th rally on the chart above
signaled completion of the 1st corrective.
We,
however, cannot rule out that a sufficient
time-correction is required after any multi-fold rally. As shown
below, such time
correction can last for as much as 161.8% to 261.8% time ratio to
the multi-fold rally.
As for the last multi-fold rally during
‘1988 to ‘1992, its correction lasted for 262.8% time ratio, from
‘1992 to ‘2003.
We argued in favor of long
term consolidation phase beginning ‘2008 because prior to ‘2008,
Sensex had multiplied 7 times from its ‘2003 lows. We argued,
such multi-fold
rally could results into a multi-year consolidation phase. Inside
such a phase, even moves reaching new highs are considered its
internal part, and not as
breakouts.
As we noted, after 11-fold
rally during ‘1988 to ‘1992, Sensex consolidated for 11 years till
‘2003 (261.8% time ratio). Within this consolidation, Sensex
corrected as much as 30-60% every time it came closer to previous
highs or even after hitting new
highs.
An ideal
“suckers rally” usually involves making a New
High. As we can be seen on the
chart below, Sensex
moved higher than its ‘1992 highs during ‘1994 and ‘1997, but
reacted by over 30% both the times.
Later during ‘2000, it broke
1992/1994/1997 highs, by as much as 1500-1600, only to lose 58%
later. After a severe corrective phase lasting from ‘2000 to
‘2003, Index broke
‘2000 high during ‘2004 by 100 pts, but even then shaved off 30%
before the next rally could take place.
All this happened because the
11-year long ‘1992-2003 phase was a multi-year corrective phase
correcting the preceding 11-fold rally from ‘1988 to
‘1992.
On the super-cycle degree, we are considering a
“Terminal” development since ‘2003 onwards. The Terminal was suspected
because its 1st wave from 2003-2008 was a
label-3 “corrective” pattern. (As against a normal label-5
Impulse pattern).
The 2003-2008 rally was
internally marked as a corrective pattern called a Running
Diametric.
Also,
more importantly, it is only inside a Terminal that
2nd wave
can be Triangle. (as against this, in a normal Impulse,
2ndwave cannot develop as a Triangle, only
4th can).
Under the circumstances, if our assumed F leg
continues beyond 13 months, i.e. beyond Jul-Aug of this year, then
we could be forced to consider the current up-move as the
3rd of the
Terminal Impulse, as per the Green labels shown
above.
The basic NEoWave requirement is that such
a corrective phase
should consume more time than the move it is correcting.The
‘1992-2003 corrective phase, remember, continued for a time-ratio of
261.8% to the preceding 4-year rally from ‘1988 to
‘1992.
As per Wave Theory, a corrective phase
shapes up as 3-legged Flat/Zigzag, 5-legged Triangle or 7-legged
Diametric (which
basically combines 2 Triangles).
The
question, therefore, is whether the corrective phase ended as a
5-legged Triangle in Aug’13, OR it would continue for 2 more legs
and form as 7-legged
Diametric.
As was shown on the chart
below, all the
up-down legs from Jan’13 to Aug’13, except “b”, consumed exactly
20-25 days, and formed into a 7-legged
Diametric (Diamond-Shaped
variety).
As per VP’s observational
rules, all the legs, except “b”, of a 7-legged Diametric tend
towards time-similarity. Indeed, by reverse logic, when
legs begin to be similar in time, the structure is more likely to
form as a Diametric.
Similar to the
pattern explained above, on one higher degree, we also observed
time-similarity from ‘2008. All the legs, except “b”, consumed about
13 months since the year ‘2008.
The question, now, remains if we continue with the
Diametric assumption or complete the post-‘2008 development as a
5-legged Triangle. As we have been explaining, we can open possibility
of ending the phase as Triangle only if we see strength continuing
beyond Jul-Aug of this year.
The
market is being moved mainly on a/c of FII buying heavyweights
selectively, even as many stocks have been trading near
previous lows in the broader
market.
During
8 quarters from Oct’08 to Nov’10, FIIs invested over Rs. 215000 crs
as per SEBI data. In the current 8-quarter up-move post Dec’11, FIIs
invested over Rs.242000 crs. Thus, post Dec’11 up-move has
so far remained smaller despite the larger investment from
FIIs.
As for DIIs, SEBI data shows
divestment of Rs. 32400 crs during Oct’08-Nov’10, and of Rs. 43800
crs after Dec’11. Thus, the up-move of last 8
quarters remained smaller despite the higher FII investment, and
larger divestment from
DIIs.
Despite huge
FII buying in the last five years since ‘2008, the Sensex was still
closer to ‘2008 high so far, despite Net Investment
of Rs. 369901 crs till Jun’13 by the
FIIs.
How reliable is the FII Net
Investment data coming from SEBI is another question. We generally
see the inflated figure in FII buying matching with DII’s selling
figure. However, above observation is made assuming the data from
SEBI is correct.
Not
related to Wave Labels so much on an immediate basis, VP’s 30% Principle shows
that Sensex is at a risk of 25-30% cut every 2-3 years, ever since
‘2004, i.e. in the last 9-10
years.
In this period, the 25-30% cut
was seen from the tops in May’2004, May’2006, Jan’2008 and Nov’10 so
far. The last bottom was during Dec’11. Sensex has now completed
27 months since then without a 25-30%
cut.
We should keep the 30% principle
in the back of the mind, and act as required when the time
comes.
Appendix :
Super-Cycle-degree Wave-scenarios for
Sensex
For Super-Cycle-Degree
wave-scenario, consider following ASA Long-Term Index. This Index
has been created by combining a very old Index compiled by a British
advisor (from '1938 to '1945), with RBI Index ('1945 to '1969), F.E
Index ('1969 to '1980) and Sensex (thereafter till
date).
The
wave-count presented shows that the market is into the lower-degree
5th of the SC-degree 3rd or 5th wave.
The
detailed wave-count from ‘1984 onwards can be seen on the Monthly
chart given below. The 2-4 line shown on the ASA long-term Chart
above, and Monthly chart below, would determine if the post ‘1984
Impulse is a Super-cycle-degree 3rd or
5th.
Super-Cycle-Degree
3rd (or
5th) began since Nov’84. Its internal 3rd was an “extended”
leg, which achieved exactly 261.8% ratio to the 1st on log scale. The Sensex is
now forming the 5th Wave, and the same could
develop as a ”Terminal”, because its lower-degree
1st wave
from May’03 onwards developed as a Diametric (which is a
“corrective” structure, rather than an “impulse”). Within the
non-directional legs, 2nd was exactly 61.8% of 1st value-wise, and
161.8% time-wise. The 4th was 38.2% of 3rd value-wise, and 261.8%
time-wise.
While
the 4th is
shown as a 3-legged a-b-c Flat on the monthly chart above.
Alternatively, the 4th is shown as a 7-legged
a-b-c-d-e-f-g Bow-Tie Diametric on the Monthly chart below. The
chart below also shows 11-year parallel channel from Apr'1992 to
May'2003. As shown, if one projects the width of this channel on
upper side, such a projection gave 20000 as the “minimum” target.
This forecast was achieved.
 .
As mentioned above, the
lower-degree 1st from May’2003 to Jan’2008
appears to be a Bow-Tie Diametric, marked as a-b-c-d-e-f-g. It
is called "Diametric" because it combines two Triangular patterns,
one initially “Contracting” up to the "d" leg, followed by an
“Expanding” one. The contraction point is the "d" leg, and the
legs on either sides of it tend to be equal. Accordingly, "c"
and "e" were equal in "log scale", both showing about 60% gains.
Similarly, "g" was equal to "a", both showing about 115%
gain.
The
Diametric development from ‘2003 to ‘2008 is considered to be the
1st wave of the Impuse. Due to the corrective structure in the
1st leg,
the higher-degree 5th could be developing as a
Terminal. Since ‘2008, we are into its 2nd wave, which could
continue to develop over a period of 7-8 years beginning
‘2008.
As per NEoWave, break of 2-4
line confirms a Terminal development, and If the 5th proves to be a Terminal,
the Super-Cycle-degree label of 3rd will have to change to
5th, because only a 5th of a 3rd cannot be a Terminal. Only
a 5th of
the 5th can
be a Terminal. The Super-Cycle-Degree marking for
1st and
2nd as
shown on ASA long-term chart, would then change to
3rd and
4threspectively.
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Disclaimer : These notes/comments have
been prepared solely to educate those who are interested in the
useful application of Technical Analysis. While due care has been
taken in preparing these notes/comments, no responsibility can be or
is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on
them. | |
