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to Mid-Atlantic Weather Station (MAWS) Mailing List
(Source: AMS, 4/17/23)
WEEKLY WEATHER AND CLIMATE NEWS,17-21 April 2023Items of Interest:
International Dark Sky Week 2023 continues through this week --
The International Dark Sky Week 2023, which began this past Saturday
(15 April), and continue through Saturday, 22 April. This week
(#IDSW2023) has a theme of "Discover the Night" and will be a week of
celebration, learning and action designed to draw attention to the
problems associated with light pollution and promote simple solutions
available to mitigate it. The International Dark Sky Week, which was
created by a high school student from Virginia in 2003, is held in April
coinciding with the week of the new moon (that occurs this year on 19
April). [International Dark Sky Organization]
Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2023 Campaign for April is underway --
The fourth in a series of twelve GLOBE at Night citizen-science
campaigns for the calendar year 2023 continues through Friday, 21 April.
GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program
designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the
brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of
constellations with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively
fainter stars. The constellations selected for this series are Leo in
the Northern Hemisphere and Leo and Crux in the Southern Hemisphere.
Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is
intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The
fifth series in the 2023 GLOBE campaign is scheduled for 11-20 May. [GLOBE at Night]
Becoming AWARE -- During this coming week of 17-21 April 2023, Pennsylvania in the Northeast, Minnesota and Wisconsin in the Midwest, and South Dakota
in the northern Plains will have their Severe Summer Weather Awareness
Weeks. will conduct their Severe Weather Awareness Weeks . These weeks
are usually scheduled before the onset of the severe weather season in
that particular state. If you live in any of these states, you should
take time to become familiar with the various public affairs
announcements issued by your local National Weather Service Office.
Flood Preparedness Week Alaska
will be observing Flood Preparedness Week during this week (16-22 April).
Hurricane forecasters conduct their Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour 2023--
Forecasters from NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) and members of
the U.S. Air Force Reserve who fly "hurricane hunter" The NHC acting
director and several hurricane specialists will visit with residents in
vulnerable communities to discuss hurricane preparedness. The public
will be invited to tour the Air Force Reserve Command’s WC-130J
“Hurricane Hunter†aircraft. which will highlight how scientists
collect data during their flights into hurricanes.
[NOAA Media]
Watching for high ocean tides along Northeastern and Alaskan coasts this week -- According to the NOAA National Ocean Service's High Tide Bulletin
for Spring 2023, higher than average astronomical tides will develop
along the Atlantic coast of the Northeast U.S. and the Alaskan coasts
beginning this Wednesday (19 April) and run through Friday (the 21st)
along the Northeastern Coast (New York State to Maine) and until
Saturday along the coasts of Alaska. No significant tides would be
found along the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico
coasts, along the Pacific Coast (California to Washington) and for the
U.S. Pacific Islands (Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, Midway, Kwajalein
and Wake Island). Those higher than normal high astronomical tides
are accompanied by lower than normal low tides that can be encountered
each day. In the extreme cases, these tides would be at times when the
occurrence of lunar perigee (when the Moon is closest to Earth) coincide
with either a new or full moon; such a situation would be termed a
perigean spring tide . During this month, these astronomical tides are
not as large because of non-ideal alignment, as lunar perigee occurred
on Saturday evening in North America (at 02:24 Z on 16 April or 10:24 PM
EDT, 9:24 PM CDT, etc. on the 15th), which is slightly more than four
days before passage of the new moon (at 04:16 Z on Thursday, the 20th).
[NOAA National Ocean Service News]
Free admission into the National Parks and Monuments -- In
observance of National Park Week (22-30 April 2023), the National Park
Service will waive entrance fees this coming Saturday (22 April). This
fee waiver, which is on the first day of National Parks Week, will
cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks
and monuments administered by the Park Service. The theme for this
year's National Park Week is "Your Park Story" and the public is encouraged to share their experiences and special connections with places in national parks using #MyParkStory.
[National Park Service Fee Free Days]
Celebrating Earth Day 2023 -- This Saturday, 22 April 2023,
is the 53rd anniversary of Earth Day, which was first proposed by the
late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin and run in 1970 as a teach-in
to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for
Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (which has
been renamed for the Senator) has posted a website
called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern
Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea that
became Earth Day. Several websites provide links to various
activities and resources planned for this week. The international
organization EARTHDAY.ORG™ has planned a three-day event that starts on
Wednesday, 20 April. The theme for Earth Day 2023 is "Invest In Our
Planet." [Earthday.org] The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is maintaining an Earth Day website.
Latest snow of season histories are available for several thousand U.S. weather stations --
Some areas of the nation have been experiencing late-season snow during
the first three weeks of April. Thus, interest has been raised in
finding the latest date of the last measurable snow of the season at a
nearby weather station. (Measurable snow is defined as a snowfall
accumulation of 0.1 inches or greater.) NOAA's National Centers for
Environmental Information has updated an interactive map that allows the
user to obtain the dates of the last measurable snowfall for several
thousand weather stations across the contiguous United States in the
Global Historical Climatology Network that have at least 20 years of
record. Clicking on a station location on the map will provide not only
the date of the latest observed snowfall at that location, but the
amount of this last snow and the first year of observation for that
station. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
(For completeness, a corresponding interactive map has been produced
last autumn from the Global Historical Climatology Network that provides
the date of occurrence of the first measurable snow of the snow season.)
Weather and Climate News Items:
Eye on the tropics --- During the last week, a tropical cyclone
continued its travels over the waters of the eastern South Indian Ocean
along the coast of Western Australia:
A tropical cyclone identified as TC-18S was traveling toward the
west-southwest offshore of Western Australia as of last Monday morning.
At the time, this yet-to-be named system had tropical-storm-force
sustained winds as it was at a distance of 300 miles to the
north-northwest of Broome, Western Australia. Subsequently, TC-18 was
given the name Ilsa as it continued its travels toward the southwest,
paralleling the coast of the state of Western Australia. By late
Tuesday night Ilsa had strengthened to become a category 1 tropical
cyclone (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) when maximum sustained
near-surface winds had reached 75 mph. Over the next 36 hours, Ilsa
strengthened to a category 4 tropical cyclone, reaching its peak
intensity by Thursday afternoon when sustained winds hit 150 mph.
During this time, Ilsa began curving toward the south-southwest, then
to the south and finally toward the south-southeast as it approached the
Western Australia coast. Ilsa made landfall along the coast 75 mi
northeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia just prior to midnight
(local time) Thursday, accompanied by 160 mph wind gusts, high surf and
torrential rains that resulted in flooding in some locations. Upon
landfall, Ilsa weakened and eventually became a remnant low that
traveled to the east-southeast across the Outback of interior Australia
before finally dissipating.
A natural-color image obtained from data collected last Thursday (local
time) by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor
onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP satellite shows a characteristic cloud
formation surrounding Tropical cyclone Ilsa less than 12 hours before it
made landfall along Western Australia's coast. Since this tropical
cyclone was in the Southern Hemisphere, the cloud swirl is in a
clockwise direction, opposite the counterclockwise swirl seen in
Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones (because of clockwise direction of
the winds around austral low pressure areas due to the apparent
deflection of moving air by the Earth's rotation). Furthermore, the dark
central eye was relatively small, a sign that the tropical cyclone had
strong winds, which were estimated to be close to 150 mph. {NASA Earth Observatory}
The 2022 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2022 hurricane
season in the North Atlantic along with the eastern and central North
Pacific is reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record
keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North
Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
List of updates to National Hurricane Center products/services released for 2023 season --
In anticipation of the 2023 Atlantic NOAA's National Hurricane Center
(NHC) recently released an eight-page flyer that describes in detail
many of the changes and additions that NHC scientists have made to the
products and services that the Center provides. In addition to a variety
of explanatory graphics, links to pertinent websites are provided.
People living in states bordering the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts
prone to hurricanes should take time to review the information made
available by NHC. Several of the updated products may also pertain to
the eastern North Pacific basin where NHC is responsible for making
tropical cyclone forecasts.
[NOAA NHC]
Early forecast for 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is made -- Late
last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University
headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach released its initial "Extended Range
Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike
Probability for 2023" that provides projected estimates of the number of
named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) during the
upcoming Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June
2023. The team, which had been formed by the late Professor William
Gray, foresees a slightly below-average tropical cyclone activity during
this upcoming hurricane season. The team's initial April forecast
envisions thirteen named tropical cyclones, which would include six
hurricanes. Of these hurricanes, the forecasters foresee two major
hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). A typical
North Atlantic hurricane season would have slightly more than fourteen
named tropical cyclones (14.4), based upon long-term averages
running from 1991 to 2020. The average number of hurricanes (for this
period) is slightly more than seven per annum (7.2). With a less active
hurricane season anticipated, the team also expects an average
probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States
coastline and in the Caribbean in 2023.
The team bases their outlook on the likelihood that the current
ENSO-neutral conditions could transition into El Niño conditions during
this upcoming summer and autumn, or as the typical peak in the Atlantic
hurricane season approaches. Usually, El Niño conditions tend to
reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Since considerable uncertainty
exists as to the strength of a forthcoming El Niño, the team cautions
that a potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season
because sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central are much
above average. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
In mid-May, forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also
should provide their outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
South Florida is swamped by an historic excessive rain event --
A nearly stationary supercell thunderstorm drenched sections of Ft.
Lauderdale, FL with between 13 and 25 inches of rain last Wednesday and
Thursday (12-13 April), which not only smashed records for a 24-hour
rainfall event, but caused major flooding that resulted in closure of
airports, roads and schools. A low pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico
helped pump humid maritime tropical air northward across South Florida
that resulted in rainfall rates of as much as three inches per hour that
persisted for several hours. A thunderstorm spawned an EF0 tornado in
Dania Beach, a city between Ft. Lauderdale and Hollywood. [Weather Underground News]
Preliminary precipitation amounts reported to the Miami office of the
National Weather Service (NWS) as of midmorning on Thursday indicated a
weather station near Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport
received 25.91 inches in 24 hours, while official observers near
Hollywood received 18,16 inches, and Plantation reported 15.06 inches in
that 24-hour span. If the reading of 25.91 inches of rain were
verified, it would establish a new 24-hour precipitation record for the
state of Florida, exceeding the 23.28 inches that Key West received in
November 1980. [NWS Miami ]
Editor's note: The media referred to this rain as a
"thousand year" rain. This terminology may be misleading in that it
does not mean that such a rain event would only occur once in 1000
years. Rather, such an event would have a one in 1000 (or 0.1 percent)
chance of being equaled or exceeded in any one year, which means that
it has an "average recurrence interval" of 1000 years. One way to
estimate the amount of precipitation for a 24-hour period that would
have a 1000-year recurrence interval would be to consult the NOAA Atlas
14 that was developed has developed to provide statistics on rates of
rain over various time periods. The NOAA Atlas 14 data for most of the
nation can be found on NOAA's Precipitation Frequency Data Server
(PFDS). The data for Ft. Lauderdale, FL was consulted from https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=fl
. The two stations for Ft. Lauderdale indicate that rainfall amounts
ranging between 24.3 and 25.2 inches in 24 hours would have 1000-year
recurrence interval, values that are close to what were observed last
week. EJH
National weather and climate reviewed for March 2023 --
Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
(NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data
collected from across the nation during the month of March 2023. See NOAA/NCEI News for narrative or
NOAA/NCEI Monthly Report for access to numerous maps and ranking tables.
Temperature -- The monthly temperature averaged across the
coterminous United States for March 2023 was 40.7 degrees Fahrenheit,
which was 0.8 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th-century (1901-2000)
October average. Consequently, the nationwide average temperature for
this past month was the 45th lowest national average March temperature
since 1895 when comprehensive climate records became available
nationwide.
Fourteen of the 48 contiguous United States reported below- to much
below-average monthly temperatures for March 2023, placing them in the
lower tercile (or three equal portions) of the 129-year monthly average
temperature distributions. These states experiencing a unseasonably
cold March are located across the Mountain States in the West, along
with the northern Plains and in Upper Midwest, The state of Oregon
experienced its fifth lowest statewide March temperature on record,
while California, Nevada and North Dakota each had their fifth coldest
March on record for their respective states. Conversely, twenty-one
states along the Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast and the northern Great
Lakes had statewide average March temperatures that were within the
above- to much-above-average category in their state's climate records.
Florida had a March average temperature that was the sixth highest in
129 years. The remaining 13 states had near-average temperatures and
they were located primarily across the Midwest, portions of the
Mid-South and the southern Plains.
The maximum (or daytime) temperature for this past March across the
48 contiguous United States was 51.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 1.4
Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th century average, giving last month the
39th lowest national March daytime temperature reading in the last 129
years. Oregon had its third lowest daytime maximum March temperature
on record, while Florida had its eighth highest daytime March
temperature.
The minimum (nighttime) March temperature for the "Lower 48" was 29.7
degrees Fahrenheit, or 0.3 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th century
average, thereby ranking the month as having the 54th lowest March
minimum temperature on record. The nighttime March 2023 minimum
temperature for Oregon was the second lowest for the 129-year period of
record for the state. On the other hand, Florida had its tenth highest
nighttime temperature in 129 years.
The October 2022 statewide average temperature for Alaska was 13.3
degrees, which ties March 1987 as the 31st highest for March in the
state's 99-year period of record that extends back to 1925. The March
temperature was 2.5 Fahrenheit degrees above the 1925-2000 long-term
average.
Precipitation -- The nationwide average precipitation for March
2023 was 2.81 inches, which was 0.30 inches above the 20th-century
average. Thus, March 2023 was the 33rd "wettest" March across the
"Lower 48" in 129 years. Sixteen of the 48 contiguous states reported
above- to much-above-average precipitation amounts for last month.
These states were scattered from the Pacific Coast to the Midwest, with
three states in the West (California, Nevada and Utah) having March
precipitation totals that ranked within the top seven of their
respective state records. On the other hand, fourteen states had March
precipitation totals that ranked in the lowest tercile, placing them in
the below- to much-below-average precipitation ranking. These states
that had a dry March were primarily located along the Atlantic and Gulf
Coasts, along with others scattered across the nation's midsection and
Pacific Northwest. Virginia had its eighth driest March, while
Delaware and Maryland had their eleventh driest March in their 129-year
periods of record. The remaining eighteen states scattered across the
"Lower 48" had precipitation totals for March 2023 close to the
20th-century average.
This just-concluded month of March was the 40th "wettest" March in
Alaska's history, with a statewide average March precipitation of 2.38
inches, which is 0.15 inches above the 1925-2000 March average.
NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed
by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
March significant and extreme climate events -- A map
entitled "U.S. Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for
March 2023" graphically summarizes several significant weather and
climate events that occurred across all 50 states and Puerto Rico during
October.
March national drought report -- NCEI has posted its October 2022 drought report
online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine
percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme
drought conditions at the end of March, while roughly nine percent of
the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
March near-surface wind data -- A portfolio of maps have been
produced by NCEI showing the monthly mean wind speeds at 10-m (standard
anemometer) height for the month of March 2023 across the contiguous
U.S, along with the corresponding mean wind speed anomaly from the
1991-2020 mean for March. During this past month, near-surface winds
across large sections of the Southwest and midsections of the contiguous
U.S. were greater than average, with the lightest winds found over the
Four Corners States and Great Basin. Above average wind speeds were
also found along the Texas Gulf Coast and northward to the Great Lakes
and Upper Midwest. Wind speeds across northern New England were
below-average along and to the east of the Continental Divide,
especially in Montana. Below-average winds also were found along the
Atlantic Seaboard, running from Maine southward to South Florida.
A set of four additional maps showing the vector components of the winds
in terms of the west-to-east or U-component (along a parallel of
latitude) and the other south-to-north or V-component (essentially along
a meridian of longitude) are provided as monthly March 2023 means and
anomalies from the 1991-2020 normal are provided. Positive west (or
u-wind component) anomalies (shaded in red) were found across many of
the Western States, especially along and offshore of the Pacific Coast
and across the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Eastern sections
of the "Lower 48" located over the Middle Atlantic and New England
States also have a stronger west-wind component. Negative u-or west
wind anomalies (blue shading) or weaker west wind components were found
over the high Plains or downwind of the Rocky Mountains especially in
Montana and Wyoming. Positive south (or v-wind component) anomalies
(shaded in red) were found across the southwestern quadrant of the
"Lower 48", primarily from California eastward across the Great Basin to
the Four Corners States, which indicates stronger southerly wind
components. Negative south wind anomalies (in blue) that indicate
weaker south winds the Northeastern States, the Great Lake States, the
Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. [NOAA/NCEI Wind Climatology]
Pacific TAO array will undergo a makeover -- The
network of moored buoys in the tropical Pacific known as the Pacific
"Tropical-Atmosphere-Ocean" (TAO) array is undergoing an upgrade by
NOAA's National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). This upgrade is being called
"TAO Recap." The TAO array (renamed the TAO/TRITON array in January
2000) represents a series of 69 permanently moored buoys that were
carefully placed in an array across the tropical Pacific Ocean as a
major component of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Observing
System, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Ocean
Observing System (GOOS). After nearly ten years of planning, the TAO
array was completed in December 1994 as a means for collecting data for
forecasting ENSO events; currently, NOAA's NDBC and the Japanese
government maintain these buoys. Each buoy has instruments that record
surface meteorological and subsurface oceanographic observations (that
include air and sea temperature, atmospheric humidity, wind data, near
surface ocean current speed and direction), which are then transmitted
to shore in real-time via the Argos satellite system. During the next
four years, the TAO array network will undergo TAO Recap that is its
first substantial upgrade including more strategic placement of updated
instruments having additional capabilities with higher-frequency
observations. This TAO Recap is intended to help scientists better
understand and predict El Niño and La Niña.
[NOAA Climate.gov News]
The nation's billion-dollar weather/climate disaster event list was updated during first quarter of 2023 -- NOAA’s
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported
that during the first quarter of 2023 (consisting of the three months
of January through March), no new disaster events attributed to weather
and climate were identified that contained losses exceeding $1 billion.
However, a preliminary list of potential events that occurred during
the first three months of the year is currently being evaluated. As of
this past Monday, this list includes: the Northeastern Winter Storm /
Cold wave (February 2023); Southern and Eastern Severe Storms (March
2023); California Flooding (December 2022 - March 2023); and Southern
and Central Tornado Outbreak (March 2023). As of the end of 2022, 348
disasters have been tallied since 1980 that had at least one
billion-dollar losses; total damages in excess of $2.510 trillion
(which involves adjustments for inflation to January 2023 based on the
Consumer Price Index).
[NOAA NCEI Billions] NCEI
provides a feature entitled "Calculating the Cost of Weather and
Climate Disasters" that provides seven items needed to be known about
NCEI's U.S. billion-dollar disasters data. [NOAA NCEI News]
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion for April --
Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
late last week. They reported that the sea surface temperatures across
the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific continued to increase
during March 2023. In addition, the coupled oceanic and atmospheric
components of the Earth system across the tropical Pacific Ocean by the
end of March were becoming consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions,
which are neither El Niño nor La Niña.
Specifically, sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern
equatorial Pacific had reached levels above the long-term average, while
the central equatorial Pacific had SST values by the end of March were
slightly above-average. As of last week, the SST anomaly
(differences between observed and long-term average temperatures) in the
regions of the equatorial Pacific identified as the Niño3.4 sector was
0.0 Celsius degrees, which meant SST values were considered average.
Near the International Dateline to the west , the Niño4 sector had a SST
anomaly of +0.3 Celsius degrees, while to the east, the Niño3 sector
had a SST anomaly of +0.2 Celsius degrees. These positive anomalies
were less than the threshold of +0.5 Celsius degrees considered to
represent El Niño conditions, meaning ENSO-neutral conditions were in
effect. Farther to the east near the South American coast, the SST
anomaly in the Niño1+2 sector last week was +2.7 Celsius degrees,
meaning warmer than average surface waters exceeded the +0.5 Celsius
degrees threshold for El Niño. (Editor's note: CPC has a map
of the four El Niño regions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean basin
used to determine if El Niño or La Niña conditions are occurring. EJH)
Slightly positive SST anomalies were also detected in the far western
equatorial Pacific surrounding Micronesia and New Guinea. Waters in the
eastern equatorial Indian Ocean were near or slightly below-average SST
values. The subsurface waters to depths of 200 meters below the
surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the
Dateline continued to warm through March, resulting in positive
subsurface temperature anomalies spreading eastward across most of the
equatorial Pacific.
Atmospheric conditions especially involving near-surface and
upper-level wind regimes across the central regions of the Pacific basin
were consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Prevailing low-level
easterly trade winds (from the east) at altitudes of approximately 1500
meters across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean remained close to
average in strength during March. Upper-level winds at altitudes of
12,000 meters were westerly (from the west) and had speeds close to
average over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, except where anomalous
cyclones (low pressure systems) were observed on either side of the
Equator. Tropical convection and precipitation were suppressed over the
central Pacific and around Indonesia.
The majority of the various numerical prediction models that the CPC and
IRI forecasters have at their disposal suggest SST anomalies in the
Niño3.4 sector (the main region used to assess the likelihood of an El
Niño) indicated ENSO-neutral conditions should persist through the
remainder of boreal spring before transitioning into El Niño commencing
in June-August 2023 and persisting into next winter. The dynamic
models would suggest that El Niño conditions could develop between May
and July as the Niño-3.4 index could reach and exceed +0.5 Celsius
degrees. However, the statistical models appear to indicate
continuation of ENSO-neutral with theNiño-3.4 index remaining slightly
less than +0.5 Celsius degrees into the Northern Hemisphere
meteorological summer. Based upon this guidance along with current
conditions, the forecasters claim ENSO-neutral conditions are expected
to continue through the Northern Hemisphere meteorological spring,
followed by a 62 percent chance of El Niño developing during the months
of May through July 2023. Consequently, the CPC's ENSO Alert System
Status was changed from last month's "Final La Niña Advisory" to an
"El Niño Watch." Note: The criteria used for CPC's ENSO Alert System is available.
An ENSO blog written by a scientist at the University of Miami's
Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Sciences provides a
non-technical description and clear graphics showing why CPC
forecasters have announced that ENSO-neutral conditions are found after
the end of the La Niña or cold-phase of the ENSO after a run of 18
months. She provides a graph showing that ENSO-neutral conditions are
expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by
a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July; after that, more
than 80 percent chance exists for El Niño by fall. She has a block
diagram with an animation of the SST anomalies within the top 300 meters
across the tropical Pacific Ocean on a weekly basis that runs from
February through the start of April 2023. This animation shows how the
warm deep waters expanded eastward and upward across the tropical
Pacific, causing the cold near-surface waters to diminish. She
explains that while predicting the intensity of the anticipated El Niño
is still uncertain, the CPC/IRI team feels that the current chance
for a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than 1.5 Celsius degrees is
about 4 in 10. Finally, she addresses how the effect that the existence
of an El Niño has upon global climate. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
A detailed and more technical El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion with supporting maps and charts is available from CPC.
Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently issued
their "Climate Driver Update" that includes an updated ENSO forecast
from a Southern Hemisphere perspective. They noted that currently,
ENSO0-neutral conditions were found in both the oceanic and atmospheric
indicators across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in April 2023.
However, these Australian forecasters feel that signs exist that El
Niño conditions are imminent. All of the international climate models
they use indicate that an ENSO-neutral phase should be in place during
austral autumn (March-May 2023). Therefore, their ENSO Outlook is at El
Niño WATCH, meaning an approximately 50 percent chance of El Niño
exists in 2023. [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on
current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical
weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and
floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]