April 17-21, 2023 Weather & Climate News

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Apr 17, 2023, 7:46:58 AM4/17/23
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(Source:  AMS, 4/17/23)

WEEKLY WEATHER AND CLIMATE NEWS, 17-21 April 2023
Items of Interest:
  • International Dark Sky Week 2023 continues through this week -- The International Dark Sky Week 2023, which began this past Saturday (15 April), and continue through Saturday, 22 April. This week (#IDSW2023) has a theme of "Discover the Night" and will be a week of celebration, learning and action designed to draw attention to the problems associated with light pollution and promote simple solutions available to mitigate it. The International Dark Sky Week, which was created by a high school student from Virginia in 2003, is held in April coinciding with the week of the new moon (that occurs this year on 19 April). [International Dark Sky Organization]
  • Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2023 Campaign for April is underway -- The fourth in a series of twelve GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for the calendar year 2023 continues through Friday, 21 April. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of constellations with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. The constellations selected for this series are Leo in the Northern Hemisphere and Leo and Crux in the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The fifth series in the 2023 GLOBE campaign is scheduled for 11-20 May. [GLOBE at Night]
  • Becoming AWARE -- During this coming week of 17-21 April 2023, Pennsylvania in the Northeast, Minnesota and Wisconsin in the Midwest, and South Dakota in the northern Plains will have their Severe Summer Weather Awareness Weeks. will conduct their Severe Weather Awareness Weeks . These weeks are usually scheduled before the onset of the severe weather season in that particular state. If you live in any of these states, you should take time to become familiar with the various public affairs announcements issued by your local National Weather Service Office.
  • Flood Preparedness Week Alaska will be observing Flood Preparedness Week during this week (16-22 April).
  • Hurricane forecasters conduct their Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour 2023-- Forecasters from NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) and members of the U.S. Air Force Reserve who fly "hurricane hunter" The NHC acting director and several hurricane specialists will visit with residents in vulnerable communities to discuss hurricane preparedness. The public will be invited to tour the Air Force Reserve Command’s WC-130J “Hurricane Hunter†aircraft. which will highlight how scientists collect data during their flights into hurricanes. [NOAA Media]
  • Watching for high ocean tides along Northeastern and Alaskan coasts this week -- According to the NOAA National Ocean Service's High Tide Bulletin for Spring 2023, higher than average astronomical tides will develop along the Atlantic coast of the Northeast U.S. and the Alaskan coasts beginning this Wednesday (19 April) and run through Friday (the 21st) along the Northeastern Coast (New York State to Maine) and until Saturday along the coasts of Alaska. No significant tides would be found along the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, along the Pacific Coast (California to Washington) and for the U.S. Pacific Islands (Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa, Midway, Kwajalein and Wake Island).
    Those higher than normal high astronomical tides are accompanied by lower than normal low tides that can be encountered each day. In the extreme cases, these tides would be at times when the occurrence of lunar perigee (when the Moon is closest to Earth) coincide with either a new or full moon; such a situation would be termed a perigean spring tide . During this month, these astronomical tides are not as large because of non-ideal alignment, as lunar perigee occurred on Saturday evening in North America (at 02:24 Z on 16 April or 10:24 PM EDT, 9:24 PM CDT, etc. on the 15th), which is slightly more than four days before passage of the new moon (at 04:16 Z on Thursday, the 20th). [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
  • Free admission into the National Parks and Monuments -- In observance of National Park Week (22-30 April 2023), the National Park Service will waive entrance fees this coming Saturday (22 April). This fee waiver, which is on the first day of National Parks Week, will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. The theme for this year's National Park Week is "Your Park Story" and the public is encouraged to share their experiences and special connections with places in national parks using #MyParkStory. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
  • Celebrating Earth Day 2023 -- This Saturday, 22 April 2023, is the 53rd anniversary of Earth Day, which was first proposed by the late Senator Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin and run in 1970 as a teach-in to heighten awareness of the environment. The Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (which has been renamed for the Senator) has posted a website called "Gaylord Nelson and Earth Day: The Making of the Modern Environmental Movement" that highlights Senator Nelson and his idea that became Earth Day.
    Several websites provide links to various activities and resources planned for this week. The international organization EARTHDAY.ORG™ has planned a three-day event that starts on Wednesday, 20 April. The theme for Earth Day 2023 is "Invest In Our Planet." [Earthday.org] The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is maintaining an Earth Day website.
  • Latest snow of season histories are available for several thousand U.S. weather stations -- Some areas of the nation have been experiencing late-season snow during the first three weeks of April. Thus, interest has been raised in finding the latest date of the last measurable snow of the season at a nearby weather station. (Measurable snow is defined as a snowfall accumulation of 0.1 inches or greater.) NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information has updated an interactive map that allows the user to obtain the dates of the last measurable snowfall for several thousand weather stations across the contiguous United States in the Global Historical Climatology Network that have at least 20 years of record. Clicking on a station location on the map will provide not only the date of the latest observed snowfall at that location, but the amount of this last snow and the first year of observation for that station. [NOAA Climate.gov News] (For completeness, a corresponding interactive map has been produced last autumn from the Global Historical Climatology Network that provides the date of occurrence of the first measurable snow of the snow season.)
Weather and Climate News Items:
    Eye on the tropics --- During the last week, a tropical cyclone continued its travels over the waters of the eastern South Indian Ocean along the coast of Western Australia:
    • A tropical cyclone identified as TC-18S was traveling toward the west-southwest offshore of Western Australia as of last Monday morning. At the time, this yet-to-be named system had tropical-storm-force sustained winds as it was at a distance of 300 miles to the north-northwest of Broome, Western Australia. Subsequently, TC-18 was given the name Ilsa as it continued its travels toward the southwest, paralleling the coast of the state of Western Australia. By late Tuesday night Ilsa had strengthened to become a category 1 tropical cyclone (on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) when maximum sustained near-surface winds had reached 75 mph. Over the next 36 hours, Ilsa strengthened to a category 4 tropical cyclone, reaching its peak intensity by Thursday afternoon when sustained winds hit 150 mph. During this time, Ilsa began curving toward the south-southwest, then to the south and finally toward the south-southeast as it approached the Western Australia coast. Ilsa made landfall along the coast 75 mi northeast of Port Hedland, Western Australia just prior to midnight (local time) Thursday, accompanied by 160 mph wind gusts, high surf and torrential rains that resulted in flooding in some locations. Upon landfall, Ilsa weakened and eventually became a remnant low that traveled to the east-southeast across the Outback of interior Australia before finally dissipating.
      A natural-color image obtained from data collected last Thursday (local time) by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensor onboard the NASA/NOAA Suomi NPP satellite shows a characteristic cloud formation surrounding Tropical cyclone Ilsa less than 12 hours before it made landfall along Western Australia's coast. Since this tropical cyclone was in the Southern Hemisphere, the cloud swirl is in a clockwise direction, opposite the counterclockwise swirl seen in Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones (because of clockwise direction of the winds around austral low pressure areas due to the apparent deflection of moving air by the Earth's rotation). Furthermore, the dark central eye was relatively small, a sign that the tropical cyclone had strong winds, which were estimated to be close to 150 mph. {NASA Earth Observatory}
  • The 2022 hurricane season reviewed -- The 2022 hurricane season in the North Atlantic along with the eastern and central North Pacific is reviewed and compared to the more than 150 years of record keeping in the North Atlantic and the 40 years in the eastern North Pacific. [AMS DataStreme Atmosphere]
  • List of updates to National Hurricane Center products/services released for 2023 season -- In anticipation of the 2023 Atlantic NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) recently released an eight-page flyer that describes in detail many of the changes and additions that NHC scientists have made to the products and services that the Center provides. In addition to a variety of explanatory graphics, links to pertinent websites are provided. People living in states bordering the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts prone to hurricanes should take time to review the information made available by NHC. Several of the updated products may also pertain to the eastern North Pacific basin where NHC is responsible for making tropical cyclone forecasts. [NOAA NHC]
  • Early forecast for 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is made -- Late last week, the hurricane forecast team from Colorado State University headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach released its initial "Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2023" that provides projected estimates of the number of named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) during the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season that officially begins on 1 June 2023. The team, which had been formed by the late Professor William Gray, foresees a slightly below-average tropical cyclone activity during this upcoming hurricane season. The team's initial April forecast envisions thirteen named tropical cyclones, which would include six hurricanes. Of these hurricanes, the forecasters foresee two major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale). A typical North Atlantic hurricane season would have slightly more than fourteen named tropical cyclones (14.4), based upon long-term averages running from 1991 to 2020. The average number of hurricanes (for this period) is slightly more than seven per annum (7.2). With a less active hurricane season anticipated, the team also expects an average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean in 2023.
    The team bases their outlook on the likelihood that the current ENSO-neutral conditions could transition into El Niño conditions during this upcoming summer and autumn, or as the typical peak in the Atlantic hurricane season approaches. Usually, El Niño conditions tend to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. Since considerable uncertainty exists as to the strength of a forthcoming El Niño, the team cautions that a potential still exists for a busy Atlantic hurricane season because sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central are much above average. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
    In mid-May, forecasters with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also should provide their outlook for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
  • South Florida is swamped by an historic excessive rain event -- A nearly stationary supercell thunderstorm drenched sections of Ft. Lauderdale, FL with between 13 and 25 inches of rain last Wednesday and Thursday (12-13 April), which not only smashed records for a 24-hour rainfall event, but caused major flooding that resulted in closure of airports, roads and schools. A low pressure area over the Gulf of Mexico helped pump humid maritime tropical air northward across South Florida that resulted in rainfall rates of as much as three inches per hour that persisted for several hours. A thunderstorm spawned an EF0 tornado in Dania Beach, a city between Ft. Lauderdale and Hollywood. [Weather Underground News]
    Preliminary precipitation amounts reported to the Miami office of the National Weather Service (NWS) as of midmorning on Thursday indicated a weather station near Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport received 25.91 inches in 24 hours, while official observers near Hollywood received 18,16 inches, and Plantation reported 15.06 inches in that 24-hour span. If the reading of 25.91 inches of rain were verified, it would establish a new 24-hour precipitation record for the state of Florida, exceeding the 23.28 inches that Key West received in November 1980. [NWS Miami ]
    Editor's note: The media referred to this rain as a "thousand year" rain. This terminology may be misleading in that it does not mean that such a rain event would only occur once in 1000 years. Rather, such an event would have a one in 1000 (or 0.1 percent) chance of being equaled or exceeded in any one year, which means that it has an "average recurrence interval" of 1000 years. One way to estimate the amount of precipitation for a 24-hour period that would have a 1000-year recurrence interval would be to consult the NOAA Atlas 14 that was developed has developed to provide statistics on rates of rain over various time periods. The NOAA Atlas 14 data for most of the nation can be found on NOAA's Precipitation Frequency Data Server (PFDS). The data for Ft. Lauderdale, FL was consulted from https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/pfds_map_cont.html?bkmrk=fl . The two stations for Ft. Lauderdale indicate that rainfall amounts ranging between 24.3 and 25.2 inches in 24 hours would have 1000-year recurrence interval, values that are close to what were observed last week. EJH
  • National weather and climate reviewed for March 2023 -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported on their analysis of preliminary weather data collected from across the nation during the month of March 2023. See NOAA/NCEI News for narrative or NOAA/NCEI Monthly Report for access to numerous maps and ranking tables.
    • Temperature -- The monthly temperature averaged across the coterminous United States for March 2023 was 40.7 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.8 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th-century (1901-2000) October average. Consequently, the nationwide average temperature for this past month was the 45th lowest national average March temperature since 1895 when comprehensive climate records became available nationwide.
      Fourteen of the 48 contiguous United States reported below- to much below-average monthly temperatures for March 2023, placing them in the lower tercile (or three equal portions) of the 129-year monthly average temperature distributions. These states experiencing a unseasonably cold March are located across the Mountain States in the West, along with the northern Plains and in Upper Midwest, The state of Oregon experienced its fifth lowest statewide March temperature on record, while California, Nevada and North Dakota each had their fifth coldest March on record for their respective states. Conversely, twenty-one states along the Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast and the northern Great Lakes had statewide average March temperatures that were within the above- to much-above-average category in their state's climate records. Florida had a March average temperature that was the sixth highest in 129 years. The remaining 13 states had near-average temperatures and they were located primarily across the Midwest, portions of the Mid-South and the southern Plains.
      The maximum (or daytime) temperature for this past March across the 48 contiguous United States was 51.6 degrees Fahrenheit or 1.4 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th century average, giving last month the 39th lowest national March daytime temperature reading in the last 129 years. Oregon had its third lowest daytime maximum March temperature on record, while Florida had its eighth highest daytime March temperature. The minimum (nighttime) March temperature for the "Lower 48" was 29.7 degrees Fahrenheit, or 0.3 Fahrenheit degrees below the 20th century average, thereby ranking the month as having the 54th lowest March minimum temperature on record. The nighttime March 2023 minimum temperature for Oregon was the second lowest for the 129-year period of record for the state. On the other hand, Florida had its tenth highest nighttime temperature in 129 years.
      The October 2022 statewide average temperature for Alaska was 13.3 degrees, which ties March 1987 as the 31st highest for March in the state's 99-year period of record that extends back to 1925. The March temperature was 2.5 Fahrenheit degrees above the 1925-2000 long-term average.
    • Precipitation -- The nationwide average precipitation for March 2023 was 2.81 inches, which was 0.30 inches above the 20th-century average. Thus, March 2023 was the 33rd "wettest" March across the "Lower 48" in 129 years. Sixteen of the 48 contiguous states reported above- to much-above-average precipitation amounts for last month. These states were scattered from the Pacific Coast to the Midwest, with three states in the West (California, Nevada and Utah) having March precipitation totals that ranked within the top seven of their respective state records. On the other hand, fourteen states had March precipitation totals that ranked in the lowest tercile, placing them in the below- to much-below-average precipitation ranking. These states that had a dry March were primarily located along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, along with others scattered across the nation's midsection and Pacific Northwest. Virginia had its eighth driest March, while Delaware and Maryland had their eleventh driest March in their 129-year periods of record. The remaining eighteen states scattered across the "Lower 48" had precipitation totals for March 2023 close to the 20th-century average.
      This just-concluded month of March was the 40th "wettest" March in Alaska's history, with a statewide average March precipitation of 2.38 inches, which is 0.15 inches above the 1925-2000 March average. NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
    • March significant and extreme climate events -- A map entitled "U.S. Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for March 2023" graphically summarizes several significant weather and climate events that occurred across all 50 states and Puerto Rico during October.
    • March national drought report -- NCEI has posted its October 2022 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately nine percent of the coterminous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of March, while roughly nine percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
    • March near-surface wind data -- A portfolio of maps have been produced by NCEI showing the monthly mean wind speeds at 10-m (standard anemometer) height for the month of March 2023 across the contiguous U.S, along with the corresponding mean wind speed anomaly from the 1991-2020 mean for March. During this past month, near-surface winds across large sections of the Southwest and midsections of the contiguous U.S. were greater than average, with the lightest winds found over the Four Corners States and Great Basin. Above average wind speeds were also found along the Texas Gulf Coast and northward to the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Wind speeds across northern New England were below-average along and to the east of the Continental Divide, especially in Montana. Below-average winds also were found along the Atlantic Seaboard, running from Maine southward to South Florida.
      A set of four additional maps showing the vector components of the winds in terms of the west-to-east or U-component (along a parallel of latitude) and the other south-to-north or V-component (essentially along a meridian of longitude) are provided as monthly March 2023 means and anomalies from the 1991-2020 normal are provided. Positive west (or u-wind component) anomalies (shaded in red) were found across many of the Western States, especially along and offshore of the Pacific Coast and across the southern and central Rocky Mountains. Eastern sections of the "Lower 48" located over the Middle Atlantic and New England States also have a stronger west-wind component. Negative u-or west wind anomalies (blue shading) or weaker west wind components were found over the high Plains or downwind of the Rocky Mountains especially in Montana and Wyoming. Positive south (or v-wind component) anomalies (shaded in red) were found across the southwestern quadrant of the "Lower 48", primarily from California eastward across the Great Basin to the Four Corners States, which indicates stronger southerly wind components. Negative south wind anomalies (in blue) that indicate weaker south winds the Northeastern States, the Great Lake States, the Upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. [NOAA/NCEI Wind Climatology]
  • Pacific TAO array will undergo a makeover -- The network of moored buoys in the tropical Pacific known as the Pacific "Tropical-Atmosphere-Ocean" (TAO) array is undergoing an upgrade by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). This upgrade is being called "TAO Recap." The TAO array (renamed the TAO/TRITON array in January 2000) represents a series of 69 permanently moored buoys that were carefully placed in an array across the tropical Pacific Ocean as a major component of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Observing System, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). After nearly ten years of planning, the TAO array was completed in December 1994 as a means for collecting data for forecasting ENSO events; currently, NOAA's NDBC and the Japanese government maintain these buoys. Each buoy has instruments that record surface meteorological and subsurface oceanographic observations (that include air and sea temperature, atmospheric humidity, wind data, near surface ocean current speed and direction), which are then transmitted to shore in real-time via the Argos satellite system. During the next four years, the TAO array network will undergo TAO Recap that is its first substantial upgrade including more strategic placement of updated instruments having additional capabilities with higher-frequency observations. This TAO Recap is intended to help scientists better understand and predict El Niño and La Niña. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
  • The nation's billion-dollar weather/climate disaster event list was updated during first quarter of 2023 -- NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently reported that during the first quarter of 2023 (consisting of the three months of January through March), no new disaster events attributed to weather and climate were identified that contained losses exceeding $1 billion. However, a preliminary list of potential events that occurred during the first three months of the year is currently being evaluated. As of this past Monday, this list includes: the Northeastern Winter Storm / Cold wave (February 2023); Southern and Eastern Severe Storms (March 2023); California Flooding (December 2022 - March 2023); and Southern and Central Tornado Outbreak (March 2023). As of the end of 2022, 348 disasters have been tallied since 1980 that had at least one billion-dollar losses; total damages in excess of $2.510 trillion (which involves adjustments for inflation to January 2023 based on the Consumer Price Index). [NOAA NCEI Billions]
    NCEI provides a feature entitled "Calculating the Cost of Weather and Climate Disasters" that provides seven items needed to be known about NCEI's U.S. billion-dollar disasters data. [NOAA NCEI News]
  • El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion for April -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion late last week. They reported that the sea surface temperatures across the western and far eastern equatorial Pacific continued to increase during March 2023. In addition, the coupled oceanic and atmospheric components of the Earth system across the tropical Pacific Ocean by the end of March were becoming consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions, which are neither El Niño nor La Niña.
    Specifically, sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern equatorial Pacific had reached levels above the long-term average, while the central equatorial Pacific had SST values by the end of March were slightly above-average. As of last week, the SST anomaly (differences between observed and long-term average temperatures) in the regions of the equatorial Pacific identified as the Niño3.4 sector was 0.0 Celsius degrees, which meant SST values were considered average. Near the International Dateline to the west , the Niño4 sector had a SST anomaly of +0.3 Celsius degrees, while to the east, the Niño3 sector had a SST anomaly of +0.2 Celsius degrees. These positive anomalies were less than the threshold of +0.5 Celsius degrees considered to represent El Niño conditions, meaning ENSO-neutral conditions were in effect. Farther to the east near the South American coast, the SST anomaly in the Niño1+2 sector last week was +2.7 Celsius degrees, meaning warmer than average surface waters exceeded the +0.5 Celsius degrees threshold for El Niño. (Editor's note: CPC has a map of the four El Niño regions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean basin used to determine if El Niño or La Niña conditions are occurring. EJH) Slightly positive SST anomalies were also detected in the far western equatorial Pacific surrounding Micronesia and New Guinea. Waters in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean were near or slightly below-average SST values. The subsurface waters to depths of 200 meters below the surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific east of the Dateline continued to warm through March, resulting in positive subsurface temperature anomalies spreading eastward across most of the equatorial Pacific.
    Atmospheric conditions especially involving near-surface and upper-level wind regimes across the central regions of the Pacific basin were consistent with ENSO-neutral conditions. Prevailing low-level easterly trade winds (from the east) at altitudes of approximately 1500 meters across most of the tropical Pacific Ocean remained close to average in strength during March. Upper-level winds at altitudes of 12,000 meters were westerly (from the west) and had speeds close to average over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean, except where anomalous cyclones (low pressure systems) were observed on either side of the Equator. Tropical convection and precipitation were suppressed over the central Pacific and around Indonesia.
    The majority of the various numerical prediction models that the CPC and IRI forecasters have at their disposal suggest SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 sector (the main region used to assess the likelihood of an El Niño) indicated ENSO-neutral conditions should persist through the remainder of boreal spring before transitioning into El Niño commencing in June-August 2023 and persisting into next winter. The dynamic models would suggest that El Niño conditions could develop between May and July as the Niño-3.4 index could reach and exceed +0.5 Celsius degrees. However, the statistical models appear to indicate continuation of ENSO-neutral with theNiño-3.4 index remaining slightly less than +0.5 Celsius degrees into the Northern Hemisphere meteorological summer. Based upon this guidance along with current conditions, the forecasters claim ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere meteorological spring, followed by a 62 percent chance of El Niño developing during the months of May through July 2023. Consequently, the CPC's ENSO Alert System Status was changed from last month's "Final La Niña Advisory" to an "El Niño Watch." Note: The criteria used for CPC's ENSO Alert System is available.
    An ENSO blog written by a scientist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Sciences provides a non-technical description and clear graphics showing why CPC forecasters have announced that ENSO-neutral conditions are found after the end of the La Niña or cold-phase of the ENSO after a run of 18 months. She provides a graph showing that ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July; after that, more than 80 percent chance exists for El Niño by fall. She has a block diagram with an animation of the SST anomalies within the top 300 meters across the tropical Pacific Ocean on a weekly basis that runs from February through the start of April 2023. This animation shows how the warm deep waters expanded eastward and upward across the tropical Pacific, causing the cold near-surface waters to diminish. She explains that while predicting the intensity of the anticipated El Niño is still uncertain, the CPC/IRI team feels that the current chance for a strong El Niño (Niño-3.4 greater than 1.5 Celsius degrees is about 4 in 10. Finally, she addresses how the effect that the existence of an El Niño has upon global climate. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
    A detailed and more technical El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Discussion with supporting maps and charts is available from CPC.
    Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently issued their "Climate Driver Update" that includes an updated ENSO forecast from a Southern Hemisphere perspective. They noted that currently, ENSO0-neutral conditions were found in both the oceanic and atmospheric indicators across the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in April 2023. However, these Australian forecasters feel that signs exist that El Niño conditions are imminent. All of the international climate models they use indicate that an ENSO-neutral phase should be in place during austral autumn (March-May 2023). Therefore, their ENSO Outlook is at El Niño WATCH, meaning an approximately 50 percent chance of El Niño exists in 2023. [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]
  • An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]
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