Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion February 4-18
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion February 4-18
433 PM EST Wed. Feb. 1, 2023
Feb. 4-8: The flow will remain progressive with a ridge near Hawaii, a trough over eastern Canada into the Northeast, and a nearly zonal flow across the remainder of the country.
The eastern trough will bring fidget temperatures to the region. A trough will approach the West and will result in a wetter pattern there over the weekend, with generally light to moderate rain and snow amounts. Expect above-normal precipitation from Texas eastward into the lower Mid-Atlantic. For the remainder of the nation, precipitation is expected to be below normal.
Feb. 9-13: A nearly zonal flow with above-normal heights are forecast across the nation. Some of the models have an upper low in the Southwest.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the western states. Anomalies are expected to be near 6°F. Above normal temperatures are forecast east of the Mississippi River. Anomalies of 2-8°F are possible.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for California eastward into the Four Corners. The probability of occurrence is near 40 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast from eastern and south Texas eastward into the Southeast excluding the Florida Peninsula. The probability of occurrence is near 40 percent.
Feb. 14-18: A ridge over the eastern Pacific builds closer to the West Coast resulting in a trough in the West and a ridge along with a zonal flow.
Little change is expected in the temperature anomalies from the previous period.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Rockies and the West Coast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the southern Plains, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, to the Atlantic and Northeast. The exception will be the Florida Peninsula. The probability of occurrence is near 40 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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