Jan 23-27, 2023 Weather & Climate News

[Mid-Atlantic Weather Station (MAWS) Mailing List]

(Source:  AMS, 1/23/23)

WEEKLY WEATHER AND CLIMATE NEWS 23-27 January 2023 Items of Interest:

• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2023 Campaign for January concludes -- The first in a series of twelve GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for the calendar year 2023 concludes on Monday, 23 January. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of constellations with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. The constellations selected for this series are Orion and Canis Major in the Northern Hemisphere and Orion in the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The second series in the 2023 GLOBE campaign is scheduled for 12-21 February. [GLOBE at Night]
       
• End of a long polar night -- After being below the horizon for approximately 66 days, the Sun should rise at Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow), the northernmost city in Alaska, for the first time this new year on Monday, 23 January 2023, at 1:03 PM Alaska Standard Time (AKST). However, the Sun will only remain above the local horizon for only 71 minutes, as it will set at 2:15 PM.
  Although the Sun set for the final time last year at 1:43 PM AKST on 18 November 2022, residents of Barrow had roughly three hours of some diffuse sunlight each day that is equivalent to civil twilight, provided the cloud cover was not too thick. To check the sunrise and sunset times of Utqiagvik (Barrow) or any location in the United States go to https://www.timeanddate.com/astronomy/usa.
• Toolboxes are available for snowfall climatologies across the nation -- Two toolboxes have recently become available that can be used to access interesting up-to-date snowfall data across the nation:
  • Snowfall extremes by county for 1-, 2-, and 3-day events -- The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has posted a "Snowfall Extremes" tool provides 1-, 2-, and 3-day maximum snowfall extremes for each county in the 50 United States; these data, along with maps, are arranged by state. The stations reporting these snowfall extremes also include the station latitude, longitude and elevation. Data appearing in this toolbox were last updated in January 2022 to accommodate data collected by NCEI through June 2021. Files containing the data can be downloaded ad easily converted to spreadsheets. Snowfall extremes for some stations can be found back to the 1880s. [NOAA NCEI News]
  • Interactive Snowfall Climatology Toolbox available for contiguous U.S. -- During the last month, the Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) launched an online interactive "Snowfall Climatology Toolbox" that provides the user with easy-to-use, visually appealing data on annual snowfall, monthly snowfall, number of snow days, first and last snow dates, and record one-day snowfall for the entire United States. The station-level snowfall data available from this toolbox are for weather stations in the U.S. Locations with few missing records and a minimum of 30-years of data. Normals are based upon the current 30-year interval running from 1991 to 2020. [Purdue University News]
  https://mrcc.purdue.edu/mw_climate/snowfallClimatology/snowfallClimatology.html

Weather and Climate News Items:

• Eye on the tropics --- After a week without tropical cyclone activity, several tropical cyclones formed in the South Pacific and South Indian basins as the waters of the oceans of the Southern Hemisphere as austral meteorological summer continues. (A tropical cyclone is an atmospheric low pressure system such as a tropical storm or hurricane that forms over tropical oceans):
  • In the western South Pacific basin (located off eastern coast of Australia, running from a longitude of 160 degrees East eastward to the 120-degrees West meridian) --
    • A tropical disturbance formed at the start of last week over the eastern Coral Sea west of the South Pacific Ocean nation of Vanuatu. Moving toward the south, this tropical disturbance strengthened and organized to become a tropical storm by last Tuesday that was given the name Irene, as maximum sustained near-surface winds reached 40 mph. By Thursday, Tropical Storm Irene had reached peak intensity with sustained winds of 60 mph as it headed toward the east-southeast. Soon thereafter, Irene began to weaken when winds began to slacken, Torrential rains accompanying Irene caused flooding on Vanuatu and in Port Vila as the tropical storm passed close to these locations. During its travels toward the southeast, Irene accelerated and became elongated as it transitioned to a subtropical system between late Thursday and early Friday. At the time, Irene was located approximately 360 miles to the east of Nouméa, the capital city of the French territory of New Caledonia.
    • A tropical low formed over the western South Pacific last Friday. This system became Tropical Cyclone 10P (TC-10P) with maximum sustained near-surface winds oof 40 mph. However, this minimal tropical storm was relatively short-lived, surviving for less than 12 hours. No name was assigned to this system. as TC-10P was entering a hostile environment with strong vertical wind shear and the intrusion of dry air. At the time, TC-10P was tracking toward the southeast approximately west of Nouméa, New Caledonia.
  • In the South Indian Ocean basin (that includes the South-West Indian Ocean south of the Equator from Africa's east coast to the 90-degrees East meridian and the Australian region from 90 degrees East to Australia --
    • A tropical storm that was named Cheneso formed late last Tuesday over the waters of the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia. At the time of formation, maximum sustained near-surface winds had reached 40 mph as it headed toward the west-southwest. One day later, Cheneso had reached peak intensity as sustained near-surface winds reached 65 mph as it passed approximately 550 miles to the north of Réunion Island. As of Thursday, Cheneso had made landfall over northern Madagascar. Within 24 hours, Cheneso had dissipated due to interaction with the high terrain on the island.as the system traveled toward the southwest and south.
• A global review of 2022 annual temperatures and other weather/climate events -- Scientists at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently posted their worldwide analyses of the annual temperature and other weather data for 2022 based upon the preliminary weather data collected for the month of December. [NOAA Annual 2022 Global Climate Report] They reported:
  • • Preliminary analysis of temperature data by NCEI scientists indicates that 2022 was the sixth warmest year since a sufficiently dense and reliable worldwide network began in 1880. The worldwide combined ocean and land surface temperature for 2022 was the sixth highest global annual surface temperature on record. Expressed as a temperature anomaly, or an arithmetic difference of the 2022 temperature from the 20th century (1901-2000) averages, this combined global temperature departure for 2022 was 1.55 Fahrenheit degrees (or 0.86 Celsius degrees) above the 20th century average temperature. (Note: Climate scientists use temperature anomalies for displaying large area-averaged summaries, such as for the globe or hemispheres, due to a greater ability to accurately represent temperature patterns with respect to what is normal for different places within a region. See further explanation in https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/faq/anomalies.php. EJH) For comparison, the calendar year of 2016 had the highest temperature departure from average for the instrumental period with a reading of 1.80 Fahrenheit degrees (1.00 Celsius degrees). Furthermore, each year in the ten-year span of 2011-2020 ranks within the ten warmest since the beginning of the record in 1880; the years 2005 and 2013 tie for tenth warmest on record.
      The NCEI scientists found that when considered separately, the global land-only surface temperature departure for 2022 was the seventh highest temperature reading for any year in the 143-year record with a 2.32 Fahrenheit degrees (1.29 Celsius degrees) temperature departure. The global ocean-only surface temperature departure for 2022 ranked as the sixth highest temperature with a temperature departure of 1.24 Fahrenheit degrees (0.69 Celsius degrees) over the oceans; interesting, the annual global ocean-only temperatures occurred during a La Niña. or cold phase El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, that persisted throughout most of the year.
      A variety of graphics are available from NCEI that include a global map showing the average surface patterns in 2022 compared to the 1991-2020 average; those places that were warmer than average are colored red, while those places that were cooler than average are colored blue. A bar graph shows annual global temperatures compared to the 20th-century average for each year running from 1976 (left), the last year the world was cooler than average, to last year 2022 (right). {NOAA Climate.gov News}
      A global "Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2022" map is available from NCEI.
      The extent of Arctic sea ice during 3030 was relatively small, with the maximum extent of ice covering the Arctic Ocean last spring ranking as the tenth smallest since satellite records began in 1979. Likewise, the minimum seasonal extent of Arctic ice that occurred in early autumn also was the tenth smallest in the satellite period of record. The extent of sea ice surrounding Antarctic in 2022 ranged from its smallest minimum annual size on record in austral summer to the fourth smallest annual maximum extent.
      For additional background information on how the NCEI global temperature time series is constructed and how it can be used to monitor a changing climate, consult the blog written by two contractors working at NOAA's Climate Program Office.
    • Scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) also released a slightly different time series of global temperatures extending back to 1880. Although these scientists at GISS used the temperature data from the same weather stations as used by NCEI, a slightly different and independent spatial averaging technique was used to obtain their GISS Surface Temperature Analysis version 4 (GISTEMP v4), yielding slight differences in the two time-series. The GISS scientists reported that 2022 tied 2015 for the fifth warmest year in 143 years. NOTE: The GISS dataset uses temperature departures (or anomalies) from the 1951-1980 averages. [NASA Global Climate Change News]
      A 4:41-minute You Tube video titled "A Look Back: 2022's Temperature Record" was produced by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and shows how heat was expressed in different ways around the world in 2022.
    • Scientists at the United Kingdom's Met Office Hadley Centre, the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit and the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science also maintain a long-term global temperature dataset (HadCRUT5) that extends back to 1850. They determined that 2022 was the sixth warmest year in their dataset record, with a global annual average temperature for the year that was 1.16 Celsius degrees above pre-industrial levels, taken as the average over the period 1850-1900. The year that currently represents the warmest year in the time series since 1850 remains as 2016, which experienced a significant El El Niño event. [UK Met Office News]
    • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), using a consolidation of six leading international datasets, reports that 2022 was one of the eight warmest years on record for Earth since the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) despite some cooling due to successive La Niña events that occurred at the beginning and end of the year. This consolidation by WMO was based on monthly climatological data from observing sites and ships and buoys in global marine network from NOAA, NASA-GISS, the United Kingdom’s Met Office Hadley Centre and the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT), and the Berkeley Earth group, along with reanalysis datasets, which include data from satellites and additional values from numerical models from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and its Copernicus Climate Change Service, and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). A 42-second animated YouTube video entitled "Global Temperatures - Animation - English - Jan 2022" identifies some key points concerning global warming and other long-term climate change trends. As a result of rising global temperatures, more unusual and extreme weather is occurring. WMO warns that every person on Earth needs to be protected by early warning systems within five years. [WMO News]
       
• Historic water level records broken along Pacific and Atlantic Coasts in December 2022 -- NOAA recently reported seven stations along the Pacific coast that are in the agency's National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) observed all-time high water levels. Four stations were in the state of Washington (Friday Harbor, Seattle, Tacoma and Port Townsend) and three stations in Alaska (Sand Point, King Cove and Nikolski). Another NWLON station at Quonset Point, RI reported a new water level record along the Atlantic Coast. Several of these records were set more than 50 years ago. The record flooding along the coasts of Washington in late December were the result of a strong winter storm that pushed sea water toward the Pacific Northwest two days after Christmas 2022, at a time when the astronomical tides were still above normal following the perigean spring tide. [NOAA National Ocean News ]
   
• Seasonal (3-month) weather outlook for February-April 2023 released -- Late last week, forecasters at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their new national Seasonal Outlook for the months of February, March and April 2023 that includes the last month of meteorological winter and the first two months of meteorological spring (in the Northern Hemisphere). Specific details of their outlooks include:
  • Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, across the eastern and southern sections of the 48 contiguous U.S. should experience a better than even chance of above average temperatures for these three upcoming months. Slightly more than the areal size of the "Lower 48" states would be affected by above-normal temperatures. The greatest probability of such an occurrence would extend from the Rio Grande Valley of southern New Mexico and the Big Bend area of west Texas eastward along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic coasts of Florida and Georgia. On the other hand, the northwestern sections of the "Lower 48" should have a higher than average chance for below average three-month temperatures. This region would extend from the Pacific Northwest Coast eastward to the Dakotas in the northern Plains and northwestern Minnesota in the Upper Midwest Plains as well as southward to northern California. Slightly less than one quarter of the areal size of the "Lower 48 States" are encompassed by this area. The highest probabilities for below average temperatures would be centered across Washington, Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle and northern Montana. The outlook indicates that the remainder of the "Lower 48" would have nearly equal chances of below, near or above normal temperatures, identified as "Equal Chances" or EC. This region would be within a swath running from southern California across the Great Basin, the central Rockies and Plains and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes States. The southeastern third of the state of Alaska was expected to experience a below average winter-early spring, with the greatest chances of a cold remainder to winter being across the southeast Panhandle and coastal areas to the east of Prince William Sound. Areas along the Chukchi and Bering Sea in northern and western sections of the state, along with the Aleutian Islands in southwestern Alaska could have above average chances of a warm late winter and early spring. The remainder of the 49th State should have equal chances of below, near or above normal temperatures.
    Their precipitation outlook calls for the southern tier of states running from southern California eastward to the Southeast Atlantic Coast to have better than even chances of below average precipitation totals for these upcoming three months. Areas across the southern and central Rockies and into the adjacent central Plains could have probabilities tending toward dry conditions over the next three months. Two regions that could have the highest chance for a drier than normal late winter-early spring would be in Southwest, including the states of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and western Kansas. while the other region would involve essentially all of the Florida Peninsula. Conversely, a large section of the northern tier of states running along the U.S.-Canadian border from Washington state eastward across the northern Rockies into Montana could have above average precipitation. Two regions across the northern states could have a likely chance for above average precipitation for the remainder of the 2022-2023 meteorological winter and into spring. One of these regions with a better than likely would be the northern tier of states running along the U.S.-Canadian border from eastern Washington state eastward across the northern Rockies into Montana, east of the Continental Divide. A second area that could have a wet three-month span would be centered on the Midwest and Great Lakes, with the highest probability being centered over a region running from Michigan's Lower Peninsula southward across the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys. Elsewhere, sections of the "Lower 48" stretching from the Pacific Coast eastward to the Plains and then southward into the Mid-South and finally northeastward to the Middle Atlantic and New England States could have essentially "Equal Chances" of below, near and above average precipitation for the next three months, as no clear-cut signal was apparent. Northwestern Alaska could have a good chance of above average precipitation, while southeastern Alaska along the Gulf of Alaska coast and northern portions of the southeast Panhandle should be dry.
    A description is also provided as how to read these 3-class, 3-month Outlook maps.
  • Seasonal Drought Outlook -- The CPC forecasters also released their US Seasonal Drought Outlook last week that would run from mid-January 2023 through the end of April 2023. Their outlook indicates that a large portion of the western half of the "Lower 48 States" should continue to experience current drought conditions; last week's U.S. Drought Monitor map (issued on 19 January 2023) provides the current extent and intensity of the drought across the nation (as of last Tuesday, the 17th). A large region of the Plains running from Texas northward through Nebraska currently experiencing extreme to exceptional (D3-D4) drought was expected to see a continuation of these drought conditions through the end of April. Furthermore, the region across Texas and the high Plains of New Mexico currently having conditions ranging from abnormally dry (D0) through severe drought (D2) could also see an intensification of drought conditions. Another area of the Southwest, extending from Great Basin of Utah and Nevada westward into southern California that is now under moderate to extreme drought ((D1-D3) conditions could continue to see persistent drought over the next three months. On the other hand, areas in central and northern California, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas and Minnesota currently having drought could have an amelioration of current drought conditions to the point where some areas would have their drought classifications removed. In the Southeast, the coastal sections with current drought conditions running from the Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Panhandle northeastward to the Atlantic Coast in the Carolinas could see persistent drought conditions through April. Additionally, drought could develop within the next three months across the Florida Peninsula, which is not currently under drought conditions.
    Note: A Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
• NOAA supported climate science and solutions in five ways in 2022 -- Investments from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act helped catalyze NOAA’s efforts during 2022 to build a Climate-Ready Nation by 2030. NOAA helped communities across America and internationally unlock data, collect information and use tools to help understand and address climate change in five ways: i.) new tools were created to help communities nationwide understand climate risks that included the launch of the Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) and th Heat.gov online portals; ii.) investments in weather and climate forecasting were put to work that included the launch of two new environmental satellites and the deployment of new weather and climate supercomputers; iii.) Support for a ‘New Blue Economy’ that helps the environment and economy thrive; iv.) the advancement of equity across NOAA's climate services and workforce; and v.) helping other nations become Climate-Ready through international urban heat island mapping efforts and the creation of a partnership with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. Department of State to improve early warnings for weather and climate-driven disasters internationally.  [NOAA NCEI News]
       
• Ways in which NOAA studies atmospheric rivers -- . During the last several years, NOAA and its research partners have conducted various efforts to study atmospheric rivers that create excessive precipitation events along the western coast of North America and flooding. These atmospheric rivers are long plumes of moisture-laden air that travel across the North Pacific Ocean, transporting abundant amounts of water vapor and clouds from the tropics to the extratropical latitudes. where lifting of the air along the coastal mountain ranges creates excessive precipitation that often leads to flooding. NOAA and partners manage facilities like the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed as well as targeted field campaigns using satellite measurements, offshore aircraft reconnaissance, and land-based atmospheric river observatories to guide model forecast system development. Specially equipped aircraft from NOAA Aircraft Operations Center and the U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron “Hurricane Hunters” conduct reconnaissance missions into atmospheric rivers. Researchers have found that atmospheric rivers could potentially begin to change in frequency due to climate change that will make managing water more difficult across the West. [NOAA Research News]
   
• High ocean tides along nation's coasts continue into this week -- According to the NOAA National Ocean Service's High Tide Bulletin for Winter 2022, higher than average astronomical tides are to continue along the U.S. coasts through as late as this Thursday )26 January) after starting last Tuesday (17 January) along the coasts of Alaska. The exact days when these higher than average tides are to be expected, as well as the length of the interval will depend upon the region. In addition to the Alaska coast, the U.S. Pacific Coast (California northward to Washington state) and the coasts of Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific Islands (Guam, American Samoa, Midway, Kwajalein and Wake Island) will experience high tides through at least the middle part of this week. Higher than average tides should be expected along the U.S. Atlantic Coasts (from Virginia northward to Maine) through the first several days of the week. Some minor coastal flooding could result along any of these coasts. In addition to tides that are higher than normal high astronomical tides during this week, lower than normal low tides can be encountered each day. The nation's Gulf of Mexico coast and the Southeast Atlantic coast should not be significantly impacted by high ocean tides this month.
  These above- and below-average tides are known as a perigean spring tides, caused by the occurrence of lunar perigee (when the Moon is closest to Earth) and a new or full moon. Lunar perigee occurred early last Saturday afternoon (21 January at 20:59Z or 3:59 PM EST, 2:59 PM CST, etc.), which was only 3 minutes after passage of new moon (at 20:56 Z on the 21st). [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
• An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]

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