Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 12-26
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 12-26
114 PM EST Tue. Jan. 9, 2024
Jan. 12-16: Above normal heights are forecast from Alaska to Greenland and the Arctic. An upper sinks to Hudson Bay with a trough across the country.
The trough will result in a cold pattern from, the central states and points east. In addition, the active pattern will remain in place. Energy in the Plains on Friday is expected to close off into a Great Lakes upper low by Saturday. This will support a rapidly intensifying Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes system that will bring snow and heavy rain in its path. The next piece of energy will move into the West and bring heavy precipitation to the Northwest over the weekend. An Arctic high will build into the central states bringing in cooler air with anomalies of 20°F or more. There is the potential for northern and southern stream energy to result in another low to reach the East Coast by next Tuesday.
Jan. 17-21: Height remains above normal across the Arctic and the remainder of the high latitudes with a ridge from Alaska into a portion of the West. An upper low sinks to the Great Lakes with below-normal heights across much of the country.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for a broad area of the nation. Anomalies could be more than 20°F. Above normal temperatures are forecast for California with anomalies close to 8°F.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for California into the Great Basin, the northern Great Lakes and New England, and the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent.
Jan. 22-26: The pattern is a little less amplified compared to the previous period. Heights remain above normal across the Arctic and the remainder of the high latitudes with a ridge from Alaska into a portion of the West. Some of the models like the GFS have very strong positive height anomalies across Alaska. An upper low near the Great Lakes slides eastward with below-normal heights in the East.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast for the West Coast into the Great Basin. Anomalies of 4-8°F are expected. Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the eastern portions of the Rockies to the Atlantic Coast. Anomalies of at least 4-6°F are possible.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the southern Plains into the Midwest. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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