Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion August 24-September 7

[James Munley]

Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion August 24-September 7

409 PM EDT Wed. Aug. 21, 2024

Aug. 24-28: A strong ridge is forecast over the Rockies and the Plains.  A trough is forecast over the Northwest and along the East Coast.

The ridge will result in a continuation of extreme heat for parts of the West and the Plains.  High are expected well into the 100s across much of Texas in particular could set daily records and high dew points should produce heat indices likely above 110 degrees. Low temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s will exacerbate heat stress and could set records for warm minimum temperatures. A monsoonal flow will continue into the Four Corners.  A trough moving into the Northwest will cause unsettled conditions across the Northwest and the north-central states. Rain and high-elevation mountain snow will be possible across the north-central Intermountain West this weekend into early next week.  High pressure in the East will cause cooler and drier conditions. 

Aug. 29-Sep. 2: A zonal is forecast across the northern states and Canada.  A trough remains over the Northwest and the Northeast.  

Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Northwest.  Anomalies are expected to be near 2°F.  Above normal temperatures are forecast for most of the Four Corners, the Plains to the Atlantic Coast.  Anomalies could be near 10°F.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast for portions of Oregon and Washington.  The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.  Below-normal precipitation is forecast for a large portion of the nation from the Rockies to the East Coast excluding parts of the Southeast.  The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.

Sep. 3-7: A zonal flow remains across the north with a broad ridge covering the middle and southern states.

Above-normal temperatures are forecast for much of the nation except for the Southeast.  Anomalies are expected to be near 8°F.

Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Rockies eastward into the Great Lakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the Gulf Coast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.

Jim Munley

 

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