Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion December 18-January 1
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion December 18-January 1
433 PM EST Fri. Dec. 15, 2023
Dec. 18-22: An upper low is forecast off the West Coast as a ridge builds across the Intermountain West. Heights remain mixed across the Arctic with below-normal heights across Greenland. A cyclonic flow covers the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
A coastal storm is forecast to track up along the East Coast early next week with widespread heavy rainfall and strong winds. Snow will be possible on the back side and northwestern quadrant. High pressure will follow bringing drier conditions. An upper low will move south along the West Coast and will bring precipitation to parts of the West and then move into the Southwest.
Dec. 23-27: Little overall change is expected in the flow with an upper low is forecast off the West Coast as a ridge builds across the Intermountain West. Heights remain mixed across the Arctic with below-normal heights across Greenland. A cyclonic flow covers the Great Lakes and the Northeast.
Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Coast into the Great Lakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Anomalies could be as high as 8°F.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for the northern states. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for central and northern California, the southern Rockies and most of the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent.
Dec. 28-Jan. 1: The flow is very El Nino like with above-normal heights across a large part of North America. A trough covers Alaska and the southern states.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for a majority of the country. Anomalies could be as high as 8°F in some locations.
Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the northern Rockies, the upper Mississippi Valley, most of the Great Lakes region, the northern Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for California, coastal Oregon and Washington, the southern Plains the Gulf Coast, and a portion of the Southeast. The probability of occurrence is 35 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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