Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 11-25
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion January 11-25
517 PM EST Mon. Jan. 8, 2024
Jan. 11-15: Height will be above normal across the Arctic and Canada to Greenland and off the West Coast. Below-normal heights are forecast across the country.
An active pattern is forecast across the nation. A system will be exiting the Northeast on Wednesday and will be followed by the next system. The next system will be organizing across the south-central states by the end of the week as a trough moves into the Rockies. The low will lift northeast towards the Great Lakes and will bring heavy rainfall to parts of the East. On the cold side of the storm, heavy snow will be possible from the middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. A strong Arctic front will bring a cold air mass into the north-central states bringing the coldest weather of the season.
Jan. 16-20: Height remains above normal across the Arctic and the remainder of the high latitudes with a ridge from Alaska into a portion of the West. An upper low sinks to the Great Lakes with below-normal heights across much of the country.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for a broad area of the nation. Anomalies could be more than 20°F. Above normal temperatures are forecast for California with anomalies close to 8°F.
Above normal precipitation is forecast for California into the Great Basin, the northern Great Lakes and New England, and the Southeast into the lower Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent.
Jan. 21-25: The pattern is a little less amplified compared to the previous period. Heights remain above normal across the Arctic and the remainder of the high latitudes with a ridge from Alaska into a portion of the West. An upper low near the Great Lakes slides eastward with below-normal heights in the East.
Above normal; temperatures are forecast for the West Coast into the Great Basin. Anomalies of 4-8°F are expected. Below-normal temperatures are forecast east of the Rockies. Anomalies of 4-6°F are possible.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for the West Coast, the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for a portion of the southern Plains into the Midwest. The probability of occurrence is nearly 35 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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