Jan 16-20, 2023 Weather & Climate News

[Mid-Atlantic Weather Station (MAWS) Mailing List]

WEEKLY WEATHER AND CLIMATE NEWS 16-20 January 2023 Items of Interest:

• Students invited to participate in NOAA's "Picture Climate Change"" contest -- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is inviting all the nation's students in grades 5 through 12 to photo submission showcasing what climate change means to them. The photos need to show an example of climate change impacts or resilience of climate change in the United States or one of its territories. Photo contest categories include Nature, Water, Weather, Society, and Resilience. Additional information concerning this contest are available on the website that can be reached below. This competition will continue through Wednesday 15 February 2023.  [NOAA News]
• Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2023 Campaign for January is underway -- The first in a series of twelve GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for the calendar year 2023 continues through Monday, 23 January. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of constellations with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. The constellations selected for this series are Orion and Canis Major in the Northern Hemisphere and Orion in the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The second series in the 2023 GLOBE campaign is scheduled for 12-21 February. [GLOBE at Night]
       
• Free admission into the National Parks -- This Monday, 16 January 2023, has been designated by the National Park Service as a fee-free day in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days]
• Approaching coldest time of the year -- This week is the third full week of January, which for many locations across the nation typically marks the coldest week of the year, as indicated by the daily normal high and low temperatures. Usually, those stations located away from the moderating influences of the oceans reach their lowest temperatures during the third week of January, or a roughly one month after the winter solstice (21 December 2022), when the Northern Hemisphere receives the fewest hours of daylight and the smallest amounts of solar radiation. During that month, temperatures continue to fall to their lowest typical values as cooling continues. However, the increased length of daylight and increased sunshine during this month begins to warm the ground and overlying atmosphere as normal daily temperatures begin to rise toward their highest levels in mid to late July, following the summer solstice (21 June 2023).
  NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) produced a set of "Coldest Day of the Year" maps for the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico showing the dates of the lowest daily minimum temperatures of the year as calculated from the 1991-2020 climate normals. Many places across the West will experience their lowest daily temperatures starting during early December, with elevation becoming an influence. On the other hand, some areas across the West will not reach their lowest daily temperatures of the year until late January, also due to elevation effects. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
   
• Quantifying this winter's severity across the nation -- At the midpoint of the 2022-23 meteorological winter season (December, January and February), one may wonder as to how severe this winter has been. The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) has been calculating and posting the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) for approximate 100 stations around the 48 contiguous United States and Alaska. The AWSSI, which was developed by a former director of MRCC and a weather forecaster at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Omaha, NE, is an objective index that uses commonly available weather data to quantify and describe the relative severity of the winter season. Click on the stations displayed on the map to reveal the daily sequence of AWSSI values through the current date. [MRCC]
  Editor's note: As of this past weekend, many of the cities around the "Lower 48" states have experienced an average, moderate or mild winter to date. Most of these cities (indicated on the map with yellow-colored circles for average winters, orange for moderate, or red-colored circles for mild winters) are found primarily in states east of the Mississippi River, across the central Plains and in the Southwest, to include California. Conversely, cities (with purple circles for extreme or light blue for severe) scattered across the Upper Midwest, the northern Plains, the Intermountain West and the Pacific Northwest have had extreme or severe winter conditions according to AWSSI. In Alaska, this winter has been moderate at Juneau and Fairbanks, while Tanana to the west-northwest of Fairbanks was having a mild winter. Anchorage was having a severe winter. EJH

Weather and Climate News Items:

• Eye on the tropics ---As of this past Sunday, no named tropical cyclones (or organized atmospheric low pressure systems known as tropical storms or hurricanes that form over tropical oceans) were detected in any of the world's tropical ocean basins during the past week.
• Review of annual 2021 weather and climate across the US -- Preliminary observed weather data from across the nation for the calendar year 2021 have led scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) to report:
  • The annual average temperature across the contiguous United States was 54.4 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2.5 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average, making last year the fourth highest annual temperature since a sufficiently dense national climate observing network was established in 1895. In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) annual temperature for 2021 across the "Lower 48" was 66.4 degrees Fahrenheit, or the fifth highest on record for the calendar year, while the average minimum (or nighttime) annual 2021 temperature was 42.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or the sixth highest in the 127-year record.
    All of the 48 contiguous United States had annual temperatures last year that were above to much above average statewide temperatures. The majority (35) of the states had statewide average annual temperatures that were within the top ten of their respective state's record. None of the remaining states had temperatures that were close to or below average. New Hampshire and Rhode Island set records for the highest statewide nighttime minimum temperature.
    Alaska experienced its 43rd coldest (or 53rd warmest) calendar year in the 97-year period of the state's climate record that commenced in 1925, with a statewide average temperature of 26.4 degrees Fahrenheit; this annual temperature was 0.4 Fahrenheit degrees above the 1925-2000 average currently used by NCEI.
  • Preliminary precipitation data shows that the nationwide precipitation total for 2021 across the "Lower 48 states" was 30.48 inches, or 0.47 inches above the 20th century average, placing this past year as the 56th wettest (or 72nd driest) year since 1895. Eight states to the west of the Mississippi experienced a dry 2021, with Montana reporting its ninth driest year since 1895. Four states in the Middle Atlantic and New England also had a drier than average year. On the other end of the spectrum, 17 states found to the east of the Mississippi had above- to much-above average annual precipitation. Massachusetts had a statewide precipitation total that ranked ninth in state history.
    The statewide precipitation in Alaska was 39.25 inches, or 2.55 inches above the long-term (1925-2000) average, making last year's total the 21st highest in the state's 97-year period of record.
    [NOAA/NCEI]
  • NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
    
  • A map entitled "U.S. Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for 2021" graphically summarizes several significant weather and climate events that occurred across all 50 states and Puerto Rico during last year.
    Monthly maps showing the temperature and precipitation anomalies (comparison with the 1981-2010 averages) across the contiguous U.S. show the monthly patterns for each of the 12 months in 2021. An accompanying narrative is also provided. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
  • Extreme weather events in 2021 and 2022 are examined in terms of climate perspective -- During last week's annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the Society released its eleventh edition of the "Explaining Extreme Events in 2021 and 2022 from a Climate Perspective" as a special edition of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This report, which is based upon the research of an international group of scientists, contains peer-reviewed analyses of extreme weather and climate across the world during the last two calendar years. The analyzes used historical observations and model simulations to determine if human-caused climate change may have influenced particular extreme weather events and by how much. Some of the climate attribution research published in this report illustrate the ways climate change has influenced extreme events that involve drought, heat, wildfires, excessive precipitation and flooding, and agricultural impacts. [NOAA News]
  • Billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the nation in 2022 are tallied -- Late last week, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) released a final update of their national annual list of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters for 2022. They reported that during this past year, the U.S. experienced 18 separate disasters costing at least a billion dollars each, which tied 2011 and 2017 for the third most billion-dollar losses in a single calendar year since 1980. The year with the most billion-dollar events was 2020 with 22 events. The 18 events in 2022 included one drought and heat wave event, one flooding event, nine severe storm outbreaks (which included a derecho and hailstorms), two tornado outbreak events, three tropical cyclone events (Hurricanes Fiona, Ian and Nicole), one wildfire event (Western states) and one winter storm/cold wave event. A national map showing the locations of the "U.S. 2020 Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters" in 2022 is provided. The total cost for all 18 events last year was estimated to be approximately $165.1 billion (based upon the 2022 Consumer Price Index); this total was the third-highest inflation-adjusted annual cost total since 1980, and nearly triple the 43-year average of $57.6 billion. In addition to having significant economic effects on the areas impacted, these events in 2022 resulted in the deaths of 474 people. Furthermore, the nation has experienced at least ten or more billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events during the last eight consecutive years (2015-2022). Since 1980, 341 disasters with at least one billion-dollar losses have brought total damages in excess of $2.475 trillion (which involves adjustments for inflation to January 2022 based on the Consumer Price Index). [NOAA Climate.gov News]
    Editor's Note: A recently updated summary prepared by NCEI scientists provides an explanation of how they calculate the costs incurred by the public from severe weather and climate events across the United States. These scientists document and assess the costs associated with hurricanes, drought and heat waves, inland floods, severe local storms, wildfires, crop freeze events and winter storms and cold waves. Input to their analysis is provided by a variety of public and private data sources. One of their products is the NCEI's list of U.S. billion-dollar disasters that dates back to 1980. A mapping tool is available. EJH [NOAA NCEI News]
  • Watching for high ocean tides along nation's coasts during this week -- According to the NOAA National Ocean Service's High Tide Bulletin for Winter 2022, higher than average astronomical tides are to develop along the U.S. coasts as early as Tuesday (17 January) along the coasts of Alaska and continuing through the following Thursday (26 January) The exact days when these higher than average tides are to be expected, as well as the length of the interval will depend upon the region. In addition to the Alaska coast, the U.S. Pacific Coast (California northward to Washington state) and the coasts of Hawaii and the U.S. Pacific Islands (Guam, American Samoa, Midway, Kwajalein and Wake Island) will also begin experiencing high tides. Higher than average tides should be expected along the U.S. Atlantic Coasts (from Virginia northward to Maine) at the as the start of this weekend. Some minor coastal flooding could result along any of these coasts. In addition to tides that are higher than normal high astronomical tides during this week, lower than normal low tides can be encountered each day. The nation's Gulf of Mexico coast and the Southeast Atlantic coast should not be significantly impacted by high ocean tides this month.
    These above- and below-average tides are known as a perigean spring tides, caused by the occurrence of lunar perigee (when the Moon is closest to Earth) and a new or full moon. Lunar perigee will occur early Saturday afternoon (21 January at 20:59Z or 3:59 PM EST, 2:59 PM CST, etc), which is only 3 minutes after passage of new moon (at 20:56 Z on the 21st). [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
     
  • Updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion for January is released -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion late last week. They reported that atmospheric and oceanic indicators in December across the tropical Pacific remained coupled and continued to indicate La Niña conditions.
    With the exception of the warm surface waters surrounding Indonesia, essentially all of the equatorial waters of the Pacific maintained below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) during December. However, a warming of the surface waters across the remainder of the equatorial Pacific was occurring as indicated by a "weakening" of the SST anomalies (differences between observed and the 1991-2020 average temperatures). As of last week, the SST anomalies in the regions of the east-central and central equatorial Pacific identified as Niño 3 and Niño 4 sectors were both -0.7 Celsius degrees, which indicates colder than average surface water. The SST anomaly for the Niño 3.4 sector (that is the main region used to assess the likelihood of a La Niña or El Niño) was -0.8 Celsius degrees, which is below the threshold of -0.5 Celsius degrees considered to represent La Niña conditions. However, these anomalies were several tenths of a Celsius degree less negative than one month earlier, suggesting some warming. Farther to the east, last week's SST anomaly was at -0.8 Celsius degrees in the Niño1+2 sector, close to the western coast of South America, which indicated slight cooling over the month of December. (Editor's note: CPC has a map of the four El Niño regions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean basin used to determine if El Niño or La Niña conditions are occurring. EJH) Elsewhere, SST values in the waters of the far western Pacific surrounding Micronesia and New Guinea remained slightly above-average. This area of positive SST anomalies was expanding eastward In the region from the surface to depths of 300 meters, the surface and subsurface waters of the equatorial Pacific continued to be cold over the last four months, with negative sub-surface temperature anomalies to the east of the Dateline becoming slightly less negative. Positive temperature anomalies were found to the west of the Dateline, especially at depths between 150 and 300 meters.
    In the tropical Pacific atmosphere, conditions in December remained consistent with those associated with La Niña. Near-surface easterly trade winds (from the east) and upper-level westerly wind flow regimes (from the west) continued to exhibit a tendency for La Niña conditions across the Pacific. Prevailing low-level easterly trade winds (from the east) at altitudes of approximately 1500 meters (850-mb pressure levels) were stronger than average across the east-central and central equatorial Pacific Ocean through most of December. Aloft, upper-level winds at altitudes of 12,000 meters (or the 200-mb pressure level) were westerly (from the west) and were stronger than average over most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean; anomalous cyclones were detected on either side of the Equator. Tropical convection and precipitation over the western and central Pacific near the Dateline remained suppressed, while tropical convection and precipitation were enhanced farther west over parts of Indonesia.
    Most of the prediction models used by the CPC and IRI forecasters indicate the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) or the SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 sector ` would increase, but remain near or below -0.5 Celsius degrees over the next several months. These levels would be below the La Niña threshold. The dynamic models would indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during the first three months of 2023, while the statistical models suggest that the transition would occur between February and April 2023. (ENSO-neutral conditions means neither El Niña nor La Niña conditions are apparent.) Therefore, consensus among the human forecasters indicates a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is possible during the three months running from February-April 2023 season. By Northern Hemisphere spring (March-May 2023), the forecasters give the chance for ENSO-neutral conditions to be at 82 percent. Therefore, they continued to maintain the CPC's ENSO Alert System Status as a "La Niña Advisory" during the second week of January, as they feel that La Niña would continue for the next few months.
    (Note: The criteria used for CPC's ENSO Alert System for the watches and advisories is available.)
    An ENSO blog written by a meteorologist at the University of Miami's Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Sciences represents the second part of a non-technical (and somewhat entertaining) discussion that she started last month. In last month's installment, se focused on the coupled oceanic and atmospheric components of the tropical Pacific that show why the La Niña persists, followed by a tutorial on how the atmospheric jet stream over the North Pacific Ocean during a typical La Niña winter influences the weather patterns across sections of North America that include Alaska, southern Canada and the contiguous U.S. In this month's installment, she discusses the CPC forecasts for a transition to ENSO conditions in the next several months. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
    A more technical discussion of the forecasters' reasoning with several maps and charts are available from CPC as part of its El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
  • An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]

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