Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion March 17-31
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion March 17-31
408 PM EDT Tue. Mar, 14, 2023
Mar. 17-21: Positive height anomalies are forecast across the northeast Pacific and Greenland. Below normal heights cover Alaska and the lower 48 along with a zonal flow.
Southern stream energy from California along with an amplifying northern stream upper closed low over the north-central states will lead to a deep surface low across the Ark-La-Tex region and will be the focus for excessive rain and convection across the region Thursday and into Friday. In addition, expected heavy and high wind threats in the cold air on the backside of the system from the central Rockies, and Plains to the Upper Midwest. The system will move across the East by Saturday. A Pacific system will spread precipitation into the West and the Intermountain West by the weekend and then across the southern states to the western Atlantic by early next week where there may be a coastal low potential.
Mar. 22-26: Little change is expected in the pattern from the previous period. Positive heights anomalies remain across the high latitudes with below normal heights across the mid-latitudes. Above normal heights are forecast over the western Atlantic.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast for most of the country. Expect anomalies to be near 4-6°F.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for a large portion of the country which includes, the West, the Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Tennessee Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent. Below normal precipitation across the upper Mississippi Valley. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.
Mar. 27-31: For the most part, the flow remains unchanged from the previous period. A ridge is forecast near the Aleutians and Greenland. A zonal flow with below-normal heights is forecast across the mid-latitudes. A ridge is forecast from the southwest Atlantic eastward across Mexico.
Below-normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Coast to the Plains, the middle and upper Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast. Anomalies of 4-6°F are expected.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast for most of the country. The probability of occurrence is near 40 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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