Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion February 17-March 2
James Munley
Long Range Weather Forecast Discussion February 17-March 2
421 PM EST Wed. Feb. 14, 2024
Feb. 17-21: The trough in the East is forecast to lift north as Pacific energy moves through the Rockies. The western ridge will push eastward
Southern stream energy will track from Mexico and into the Gulf will support one or more weak frontal waves that move across Florida and then offshore. The combination of the eastern trough and a broad surface high sinking south from Canada into the South brings a colder air mass. The West Coast will become active over the weekend as a potential "Atmospheric River" event impacts portions of California.
Feb. 22-26: Heights remain mixed across the Arctic. Downstream, a trough, ridge, and trough configuration is forecast from the Pacific to the East.
Above normal temperatures are forecast for most of the Rockies eastward into the Great Lakes region, the Midwest, and the Tennessee Valleys. Anomalies could be near 6°F in some locations.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast west of the Divide. The probability of occurrence is 35-40 percent. Below-normal precipitation is forecast for the Plains to the Midwest. The probability of occurrence is near 35 percent.
Feb. 27-Mar. 2: A zonal flow is forecast across the nation with near to below-normal heights. Height are forecast to be above normal across Greenland.
Above normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Coast into the Great Lakes region, the Midwest, and the Tennessee Valley. Anomalies of 4-6°F are expected. Below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and most of the Southeast. Anomalies are expected to be near 2°F.
Above-normal precipitation is forecast from the Pacific Coast into the Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, and a portion of the Mid-Atlantic. The probability of occurrence is 35-55 percent.
Jim Munley
Youtube: Jimmunleywx
Twitter: @jimmunley
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