"Andre Kuyt" <ak...@xs4all.nl> wrote in message news:OByBIan#AHA.2084@tkmsftngp02...
"Fist de Yuma" <cs...@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:#FgHfin#AHA.1916@tkmsftngp03...
"Frank" <humi...@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:O2Bhwln#AHA.1656@tkmsftngp03...
"Frank" <humi...@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:uZkH45n#AHA.2112@tkmsftngp04...
"Frank" <humi...@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:uZkH45n#AHA.2112@tkmsftngp04...
"Chuspi" <chum...@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:OMZLX8n#AHA.1612@tkmsftngp02...
"Chuspi" <chum...@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:OMZLX8n#AHA.1612@tkmsftngp02...
"Frank" <humi...@yahoo.com> wrote in message news:OPIRkDo#AHA.2060@tkmsftngp04...
I don't think this is the proper forum for a political debate. I
certainly don't want to hear about it here.
Ibn
--
"Be mindful of the prayers you send, pray hard but pray with care
For the tears that you are crying now are just your answered prayers"
"Alex Beckers" <ori...@conan.ids.net> wrote in message
news:tj4ggmn...@corp.supernews.com...
While I basically agree with what you're saying, your example is flawed.
As is the case with many chaotic systems, making specific predictions of
behavior in the near future is actually *harder* than making more general
predictions of the system's state long term. The fact that the weather man
has no idea what is going to happen tomorrow, never mind next week, doesn't
mean that he can't say there's a pretty good chance we'll get thirty inches
of rain this year.
Pete
I wonder if global warming will be a problem on Auberean? If the icecaps
melt, then perhaps Dereth will be covered with water.. only the highest
mountains in the Linvak Range and the Northern Osteth would be abole the
water line. Could be a fun plot line.. to find two animals of each kind, to
ensure their continued existance. Wonder how they would lock up those vapour
golems..
Oh well...
-Ramuh
At least the UN has zero power without the US. If the UN takes over the world the US will be running it.
nib
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:e14RVTo#AHA.1640@tkmsftngp05...
"Jeff" <jeff...@cinci.rr.com> wrote in message news:tj4hdll...@corp.supernews.com...
Whether or not scientists have correctly predicted the future or not so far
doesn't change the fact that it can be done.
Everyone's got a theory, and the fact that many of them are wrong doesn't
mean that one of them isn't right. If you really believe that it's
literally ALL "BS political shit", then you're failing to understand the
underlying science. Most of the scientists couldn't care less about the
politics; they just want to understand the world better.
Pete
nib
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:#6Abxho#AHA.1852@tkmsftngp05...
"Jeff" <jeff...@cinci.rr.com> wrote in message news:tj4hdll...@corp.supernews.com...
At least the UN has zero power without the US. If the UN takes over the world the US will be running it.
On the one hand I am happy for him, after all he has been dead for
quite some time.
But on the other hand I am left wondering how this has happened. Was it
reincarnation, has he become undead or has his casket caught on fire?
Was he placed in a cryogenic freezing tube that is now warming? Either
way I am just a little scared and I hope he cools off soon.
Dave
Perhaps he's tired of being buried next to "spooky old Alice".
Rho
"David Burke" <dab...@mediaone.net> wrote in message
news:3B3251B...@mediaone.net...
Dave
No. Methinks you are too invested in the debate (which I haven't even
entered) to listen to what I'm trying to say.
Local weather is very hard to predict, even over short periods of time.
However, the entire system does have a well-defined statistical behavior,
and the fact that local weather cannot be predicted accurately IN NO WAY is
a valid argument for why long-term, general predictions are false.
In other words: you may indeed be correct that scientists aren't correct
about what's happening with global warming/cooling, but the data that you
are trying to use to prove that point is totally irrelevant, and not helpful
to your argument.
On top of all that, you go off and say something ridiculous like accusing
*EVERYONE* involved in the debate of having nefarious political motivations.
If this is how you normally debate, I can see how you might get a little
bitter about never winning one. :) Even if you have valid points, if you
use poor reasoning to support them, no one will listen.
Pete
It does? How so? From all the historical data I've seen about the Earth's
temperature its been pretty erratic over the few hundred thousand years that
they've been able to collect data. I'm not sure to what you are referring.
>
> In other words: you may indeed be correct that scientists aren't correct
> about what's happening with global warming/cooling, but the data that you
> are trying to use to prove that point is totally irrelevant, and not
helpful
> to your argument.
Ok, I'll conceed. My exact statement about not predicting tomorrows weather
was done in a bit of jest, but, that doesn't change my point nor does it
make your point correct. I still don't believe (and have never seen the
proof) that long term weather effects can be predicted.
>
> On top of all that, you go off and say something ridiculous like accusing
> *EVERYONE* involved in the debate of having nefarious political
motivations.
Most of them are. Sure, not every single one, but the ones that are vocal
are vocal for a reason. The ones that get picked up and aired on the news
are picked up for a reason. The ones that disagree/dissent are magically
never discussed.
>
> If this is how you normally debate, I can see how you might get a little
> bitter about never winning one. :) Even if you have valid points, if you
> use poor reasoning to support them, no one will listen.
Normally when I have a sit-down facte-to-face debate I'll make sure we spell
out the exact topic and the exact parameters of our discussion. So, no, this
isn't normally how its done. I never really expect to get very far in usenet
debates because its too easy to get side tracked and my style of debate is
really tough to do over an electronic media such as this. I usually like to
ask pointed and thought-provoking questions and have the other person think
through an answer. Its amazing what happens when you debate someone by
making them actually think through their point.
>
> Pete
nib
>
>
"Blackhawk" <mtv.n...@telia.com> wrote in message news:2ntY6.8738$G4.12...@newsc.telia.net...Umm, I don't wan't to turn this into a US/World debatte but isn't this the mentality we've come to expect from the US. Let's police the world and damn the world if they police us. Furthermore, is it alltogether wise to just act in self intrest. Think of the generations to come. They are going to live here in a poluted world with oxygentanks on their backs. Nevermind the greenhouse effects but the polution does destroy the air we breath so making the rules tougher for enviromentcriminals is something everyone should support.
ÂNahaz - Level 43 Unarmed Brawler
Wrack - Level 20 Og-mage
Chamdar - Level 20 Alchemist/Fletcher/Lockpick/Cook
Na'haz - Level 25 Swordfighter
Virtous - Level 24 Sharpshooter
FF
"Mike Greenwald" <mgre...@pacbell.net> wrote in message news:DgsY6.156$lR4....@news.pacbell.net...
"Mike Greenwald" <mgre...@pacbell.net> wrote in message news:DgsY6.156$lR4....@news.pacbell.net...
You are correct of course; many branches of science depend on the ability to
predict the behavior of a population, even when individual data points are
wildly variable. If not as applicable as he intended, his example still is
apropos: If the computer models for predicting short-term weather are so
inaccurate, then perhaps there are invalid assumptions in the computer
models for long-term weather as well.
One thing you said didn't ring true (to me, anyway, I'm no meteorologist).
Who's to say that "the entire system does have a well-defined statistical
behavior"? Verifiable data has been gathered for only 100 years or so, and
with man's increasing ability to affect the biosphere, IMO the Earth's
weather is anything but a closed system.
Bzzt. Get your facts straight.
http://www.unfccc.de/resource/kpstats.pdf
--
Neo D'Orc, Frostfell gimp
I have a quantum car. Every time I look at the speedometer I get lost...
"Astrin Ymris" <As...@mediaone.net> wrote in message
news:BsrY6.2958$wU6.3...@typhoon.ne.mediaone.net...
For every vocal environmentalist or anti-environmentalist, there's at least
ten genuine scientists working hard on the problem trying to learn the
*truth*, without regard for politics. And many of them actually believe
global warming or global cooling is real.
I'd hardly say that even "most" is an accurate description of the number of
people who are solely involved for political reasons.
Pete
My point was simply that there was no logical progression in the statement I
was talking about.
That said, there *are* well-known statistical trends with regards to global
weather. Between the months of June and November, tropical depressions,
storms, and hurricanes will form. They almost *never* happen any other
time. When the flow of cold water in the Pacific is one direction, there is
always a "La Nina" effect; when the flow is the other direction, there's an
"El Nino" effect. That's just to name a couple of effects (the former is an
annual effect, while the latter can last several years).
It seems likely that just as these short term statistically valid models
provide predictable behavior, longer-term models will as well. I agree
we're short on data and long on theory right now, but that in no way proves
that it's not possible, nor does it in any way prove that one or more
current theories are incorrect.
With respect to the question of whether Earth's weather is a closed system
or not...for the most part, it is actually. I mean, sure...there are
numerous tiny meteorites raining down on us all the time, and other
astronomical contributes, but they have an incredibly negligible effect.
The only real external influence is the Sun, and since it itself is a closed
system, by extension, the Sun plus the Earth is also a closed system.
There are a number of excellent debating points with respect to the validity
of global warming and cooling theories (I keep saying both because, while
global warming is the hot topic for now, there are actually a lot of
scientists that feel we're actually still heading into an ice age).
However, one thing that I find remarkably naive is the people who feel that
if we somehow can prove that there's no trend toward global warming right
now, that we should feel free to pollute the atmosphere with whatever gases
and particulates that we want.
It seems painfully obvious to me that we should attempt to minimize any
effect humanity has on the ecosystem, within reasonable efforts.
Of course, that's really what the whole Kyoto thing comes down to, people
like Fist who want to turn it into an "us vs. them, let's denigrate those
with political beliefs that don't match ours" fighting match
notwithstanding. The fact is, I think that almost everyone is agreed that
it's good to minimize pollution. The thing that people don't agree on is
where do we draw the line? How much money do we spend keeping the
atmosphere clean before we call it "clean enough" and "not worth spending
any more money"?
If only people could stick to talking about *that* rather than accusing each
other of trying to further their own political agendas (ironically, I think
each side is actually correct, since those accusations themselves are the
act of trying to further their own political agendas).
Geez...for a debate that I had no interest in getting into, I sure got
sucked into this thread hard.
Pete
I saw Bush give a speech recently, he was talking about emission levels.
Then said that sulfur actually reflects the rays from the sun that would
cause the greenhouse effect. I sat there for a second stunned. While
sulfur may reflect lots of things the one thing that it does do is
become acid rain and destroy lakes. So here is Bush advocating that we
let more sulfur into the air to stop global warming and cause more acid
rain :)
I wonder how more acid rain will effect George Gobel?
Dave
ROFL, I think the dinosaurs would disagree :) There's also the issue of
losing atmospheric gas to space, but I've never seen anything on how
significant (if at all) that is.
Closed system was perhaps a poor choice of words. What I wanted to get
across was that since the historical data is from such a small fraction of
the Earth's history, the data has been demonstrated to be less than adequate
to predict short-term weather, and the "X-factor" of man introducing rapid
and wide-spread changes to the planet, there is no basis IMO to assert that
long-term weather has well-defined statistical behavior, or rather that we
have a clue as to what that behavior will be.
"nib" <n...@springmail.com> wrote in message news:O2VA6ao#AHA.1760@tkmsftngp02...
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:#6Abxho#AHA.1852@tkmsftngp05...
"How much money do we spend keeping the atmosphere clean before we call it
"clean enough" and "not worth spending any more money"?
IS the approach that I believe is advocated by the Bush administration and
by conservatives in general. For some reason, we seem to be continually
characterized as cigar-chomping, toxic-waste spewing lunkheads that don't
give a damn about the earth.
Rhodoman, FrostFell Archer
:
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:e70KO8p#AHA.1452@tkmsftngp05...
That comment came from the fact that Fist started this thread by posting a
link to a politically charged article. IMHO, only someone interested in
stirring the pot of politics would do such a thing.
Pete
Of course, dropping it into this group as OT, could be construed as
"stirring the pot" in it's own right.
Rho
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:uBvb82q#AHA.1468@tkmsftngp05...
"Peter Duniho" <NpOeS...@NnOwSlPiAnMk.com> wrote in message
news:uBvb82q#AHA.1468@tkmsftngp05...
Since this isn't the place, it can only be considered pot-stirring.
It's one thing for an on-topic thread to spin off a completely off-topic
tangent. It's an entirely different thing to be *starting* off-topic
threads. The latter is totally inappropriate.
Pete
Hypothetic scenario:
The World in 2127: After the USA (Cuba joined as 69th state after Peru
in 2064) rejected the Kyoto agreement in the beginning of the century,
CO2 emmisions skyrocketed. It has been undoubtly proven by the MIT in
cooperation with the US government that this CO2 emissons lead to the
most serious draught in recorded history leaving half the worlds
population of 10 billion people in the 3rd world basically without food
for 4 years. 3 billion people starved in the period from 2084 to 2088.
The UN global court in DenHaag with the honorable judge Mr. Kim Yo-Hnut
presiding, ruled today that the USA is sentenced to pay compensations in
the height of 10% of the annual GDP over the next 7 years to the
Afroarab Union. The US president - Ms. Arancha Rodriguez - expressed her
sincere regrets and appologized to the global community.
Fist de Yuma wrote:
> http://www.townhall.com/columnists/lindabowles/lb20010619.shtml
This ain't that place, sir.
Care to cite a reputable source for your tree statement? I have to admit I'm
skeptical about that claim, but eager to be enlightened.
"Modnar" <mod...@newguy.com> wrote in message
news:9guc7...@enews4.newsguy.com...
This is good reading as well
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/jonahgoldberg/jg20010620.shtml
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/ts20010621.shtml
"Modnar" <mod...@newguy.com> wrote in message
news:9guc7...@enews4.newsguy.com...
>
"President Rodriguez was later heard joking with a State Department aide,
'So, how much do we owe the UN now anyway?' This indicates that Rodriguez
plans to add the fine to the backlog of US dues to the UN, a time-honored
tradition stretching back to the previous century." *grin*
From the digging I did, it's indeed a "well established fact," though
twisted around a bit by some. According to studies done by the US Geological
Survey:(http://biology.usgs.gov/luhna/contents.html)
(paraphrased from lengthier report)
1) There is less forest area in the US than when the country was first
settled, although there is more now than there was in the late 1800s (i.e.
the trumpeted 100 yrs ago). In part this is due to the end of the robber
baron deforestation era at the turn of the last century.
2) Pre-settlement forests consisted of relatively small numbers of very
large trees, and large numbers of smaller trees.
3) Logging, as well as clearance for farming followed by abandonment,
removed the large trees and either left the small ones or allowed smaller
trees to regrow.
Putting these observations together, while there is less land in forests now
than there was prior to European settlement, and there are fewer large
trees, it is likely that there are more trees now because of the very large
number of relatively small trees. As forests mature the number of trees will
decline steeply, due to the self-thinning nature of forests.
So while it may be true that there are more individual trees now than in,
say 1650, there is in fact less forest cover, fewer large trees and much
less merchantable timber.
"Senjin" <unde...@fast.net> wrote in message
news:#n9vOwt#AHA.1352@tkmsftngp04...
"Fist de Yuma" <cs...@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:#Rqg4zm#AHA.1916@tkmsftngp03...
nib
"Modnar" <mod...@newguy.com> wrote in message
news:9gtmu...@enews4.newsguy.com...
nib
"Palatine [WE]" <NoS...@Spamless.Spam> wrote in message
news:#dhn#hv#AHA.1940@tkmsftngp04...
"nib" <n...@springmail.com> wrote in message
news:uA0uEwy#AHA.1492@tkmsftngp05...
nib
"Palatine [WE]" <NoS...@Spamless.Spam> wrote in message
news:OxNWYIz#AHA.1404@tkmsftngp05...
Not sure about WW1 but the USA stayed out of WW2 not due to economic but
politics. We, like the rest of the world, were still in a deep
depression when the war started. And it was ALL the way over there
across an ocean or two. After WW1 the USA did become very
isolationist. Anything not happening on this side of the globe was not
an issue. Any attempt to make European affairs an American issue was
not greated well.
Our involvement in WW2 was the only thing that pulled the States out of
the economic depression. Not any of the alphabet soup programs started
by FDR compares to the economic boon that was the American War Machine.
Wars tend to be very good for an economy if you are not involved
directly. It took the US a while to even start running guns to our
Allies. If it were about economic benifits we would have been in much
earlier.
JJC
Don't believe everything Hollywood tells you about WWII.
There would not have been a hope in hells chance of the US surviving against
the Axis had the UK, Commonwealth and free Europeans not fought for nearly
two years.
"nib" <n...@springmail.com> wrote in message
news:#0biTPz#AHA.1424@tkmsftngp07...
The UK was not only a good launching ground for the Allied Invasion, it
would have also have been a good place for the Nazis to start an attack on
the American continent. Many of the people in the US knew that but, as a
country, struggled to find the will to enter into the war until forced
(sorry can't think of another word) into it by the Japanese.
"John J. Case" <JC...@rcsis.com> wrote in message
news:3B3369DD...@rcsis.com...
The Gulf: Yes, quick because our direct interest was at stake.
Vietnam: Due to fears of world communism. Probably a mistake to get
involved.
Middle East: A whole mess of crap that we should be in in the first place.
We'll never solve their problems.
nib
"Palatine [WE]" <NoS...@Spamless.Spam> wrote in message
news:OTSWRfz#AHA.1940@tkmsftngp07...
This sounds like a red herring argument to be sure. What bearing does
the reluctantce of past administrations to trade the lives of it's
citizens for the lives of Europeans have on the issue of global
warming?
Nasier
Leafcull
In article <OTSWRfz#AHA.1940@tkmsftngp07>, "Palatine [WE]"
<NoS...@Spamless.Spam> wrote:
--
to reply: change .com to .net
Totally different times. Pre WW2 was such a different time than the
early 90's for the US.
Secondly, we were anything BUT quick hopping into Vietnam. And out of
but we can save that for later. We only entered that mess after the
French pulled out. Troop deployment was slow. And the war was fought
on a sliding scale. Had we been quick and decisive it would have been
over in short order.
JJC
I won't argue your points, was just pointing out the facts :-)
Umm, they did. Or tried to, anyway. Hitler invaded Poland Sept 1, 1939, and
Britain and France and allies declared war Sept 3. (The US declared
neutrality on the 5th.)
Had you backed up further and asked the same question about Germany annexing
Austria or invading Czechoslovakia in the late 30's, you point would have
been well made.
nib
"Modnar" <mod...@newguy.com> wrote in message
news:9gvst...@enews4.newsguy.com...
nib
"Modnar" <mod...@newguy.com> wrote in message
news:9gvu1...@enews4.newsguy.com...
Of course of after WWI they had been a little more reasonable with demands
Hitler would never had gotten power.
"nib" <n...@springmail.com> wrote in message
news:#0biTPz#AHA.1424@tkmsftngp07...
WARNING: Hot button pushed! Long off-topic rant initiated! Flee now!
I wish you were really right. Unfortunately, it's often not the case.
My father is the department head of Rangeland Resources at Oregon State
University. Basically, this is the science of ranching. He's been doing
this for years, before the environmental movement picked up steam. I do
believe that he's strongly interested in good science and the truth,
regardless of political agenda. (And I happen to disagree with most of his
political beliefs, at that.) It should be obvious that nobody has more to
gain than cattle ranchers by using public lands in a scientifically
sustainable fashion, and this is their goal. Nearly all of the Ranchers are
on board.
But, alas, there is a strong faction of 'scientists' that are really
environmental idealogues with scientific degrees. Now, I consider myself
strongly in favor of protecting the environment, even if it has a negative
impact on economic concerns - but as a scientific mind myself, I'm apalled
by some of the 'science' that gets done.
For instance, the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife defines water
quality in terms of, among other things, water temperature. There's no
correction made for ambient temperature - if the water is over 78 degrees (I
don't recall the exact number, but it's something like that), it's defined
as polluted. Even in the summer. By this definition, our water was
polluted long before man crawled across the land bridge in Alaska. And this
is the LAW. The effect of this is to restrict cattle from waterways, since
grazing reduces the shade available.
Actual studies done don't support the conclusions made. There are hundreds
of studies that don't show any effect of cattle grazing along streams on the
fish runs. These are ignored, because the goal of the environmental leaders
in Oregon are not to reach compromise. ("We're here to create conflict, not
compromise" - actual quote from the head of the Oregon Natural Resource
Commission.) The conclusion, that we need to return the world as close to
the natural state as possible, is given, and then anything that supports
that goal is used to support it, anything else is ignored.
There was a symposium recently on whether it should be policy to put fish
guts in the rivers, on the idea that it would help improve the salmon runs.
Really! The fish scientists had some theories as to why this would
encourage the runs to return, and maybe they were right. But, did they try
it? Did they do a controlled experiment? No! Not at all! They were
making decisions on public policy based on theory, without doing the
experiment, analyzing the data, and seeing if it was right or not.
As an evironmentalist, I'm very saddened to hear these stories, and there
are lots of them. There are scientists that want to help the environment,
do real science, and follow the truth. There are also scientists that are
trying to prove a conclusion, and those have systematically taken power in
the environmental movement. So, skepticism is warranted. If there isn't
data, it's not science. If they haven't done experiments, it's not science.
It's educated guesses, and may be interesting, but no more so than any
science fiction novel.
-- Kirby
Perhaps. As much as the US is disliked in the middle east I image we had to
be very careful about our involvement.
>
> Of course of after WWI they had been a little more reasonable with demands
> Hitler would never had gotten power.
I'll agree with that.
"Kirby Krueger" <kir...@best.com> wrote in message
news:u1FmCp0#AHA.1712@tkmsftngp03...
One law said that there could be no more than 10 ppm (parts per million) of
this particular pollutant in the water
The other law say the company had to remove atleast 30% of the pollutant
from the water.
Well, what happened? If the water was polluted at 6 ppm, it turned out to be
more cost efficient (and easier) to ADD pollutants to the water to get it up
to 12 or 13 ppm of pollutant and then remove the 30% getting it back down to
something like 8 or 9 ppm. Thus, they released a water into the river that
was MORE polluted after the law was followed than it would have been
otherwise. That's the kind of thing that goes on all the time.
nib
"Kirby Krueger" <kir...@best.com> wrote in message
news:u1FmCp0#AHA.1712@tkmsftngp03...
>
"It's often not the case"? Either it is, or it's not. No "often" about it,
since my statement was regarding the majority of scientists. Either the
majority ARE politically motivated, or the majority ARE NOT politically
motivated.
I'm sure you're not trying to say that "most days, the majority are
politically motivated, but some days the majority are not", but that's the
only way to interpret your response to what I wrote and still be consistent
with the thread.
Pete
But, I'll acknowledge that this is picking semantic nits, and go ahead and
be non-circumspect. With respect to environmental issues, I unfortunately
believe that most scientists are not only looking at pure science and
following the conclusions logically drawn from that. Rather, most are
starting with a conclusion that supports their worldview and trying to prove
it.
I can't prove most, obviously, but if that's a problem, substitute 'many,
including those in positions of power', and I have no problems stating that.
And that's a huge problem, by itself. It's a systematic ideological
corruption, that promotes people who share viewpoints to the top of the
political spectrum, and keeps people whose science is more controversial on
the defensive and out of view.
It ends up working against the environmental movement in two ways. One is
that it engenders mistrust, evidenced by dialogues such as this. Secondly,
it allows opponents to easily bring in expert witnesses to refute their
claims and destroy their credibility - when you're doing sloppy science, you
get burned.
There are so many real environmental issues that need study, and that we can
back up, that it's a shame the movement is so politically motivated down to
the core. I suppose this is nothing new - and there's certainly equally
shoddy research coming from corporate grants. I'd love to see the day when
the public was willing to pay attention to serious scientific scrutiny of
claims, but alas, I doubt it will happen.
The worst case is if they're right, but nobody takes them seriously because
of past transgressions.
And if that happens, who will save Dereth?
(Er, wait, I'm horribly confused again.)
-- Kirby
The reduction of the numbers of Large Trees has also made the Forests we
have into a better Habitat for Deer, whose Numbers have increased.
I guess we can just agree to disagree on this one.
As in, I believe that even in the case of global warming, most of the
scientists doing active research are NOT politically motivated.
The ones you hear from most often might be, but that's a very poor way to
pick statistical samples.
Pete