Mets Minor League Blog Report 10-1-08
Toby Hyde
In this issue
- BA Eastern League Top 20
- BA EL Chat
- Tuesday in HWB
- ’08 St. Lucie Mets
1. BA EL Top 20
At Baseball America, John Manuel ranked the top prospects in the Eastern League, putting Fernando Martinez at #7, Daniel Murphy at #13 and Jon Niese at #18. Martinez was #3 on last year’s EL Top 20.
Here are his important assessments on each guy:
On Martinez
Martinez continues to elicit a range of reactions.
One AL scout called him a below-average
runner
with a tweener profile, lacking the impact bat for an outfield corner.
A
manager who said he liked Martinez's
bat last year believed that he'd lost some explosiveness in his swing.
"I like him a lot better than I did last year,"
one AL
scout
summarized, "but he's not Carlos Beltran."
Some scouts I talked to complained that they had trouble getting a read on Martinez because he was so rarely on the field.
On Murphy
Scouts agree with the shorthand assessment of Murphy's Binghamton manager, Mako Oliveras: "He's a grinder who can hit."
Scouts don't consider him capable of handling second base consistently, but he should continue to hit enough to fit in left field for New York long-term.
On Niese
Scouts project him as fourth or fifth starter in the short run, and as a No. 3 or 4 starter as he gains savvy and experience.
Some scouts were concerned
with his
delivery, as he lands with an open front shoulder and leans back in
pronounced
fashion toward third base. The delivery hinders Niese's control, though
he has
developed a slider that acts like a cutter to gives him another pitch
he can
throw for strikes.
I just don’t know where this slider stuff is coming from. Niese throws a fastball, which he can cut a little bit, a big curveball and a changeup. He did not throw a slider in any of his big league starts. The SNY crew repeatedly talked about how Niese needed to develop the ability to spin a harder curve in addition to his big loopy one.
"It's a funky delivery," an AL scout said, "but it's deceptive
and
helps him."
2. Manuel EL Chat
John Manuel then answered questions in his Eastern League chat.
Q: JAYPERS from
IL asks:
Could I get your evaluation of Mike Carp? He
seems to have
had a yo-yo 2008, but the bat looks to be for real. How about the rest
of him? 
A:
John Manuel: I'm not a fan. The bat does not look to be for real, according to scouts and managers I talked to. His bat looks to be for real against bad or mediocre pitching and much less so against LHPs (though he was better this year), and especially less so against good velocity. I couldn't find one scout or manager who liked him frankly, who considered him a regular. He doesn't earn points with his defense or field demeanor either. He had a good year offensively, I'll give him that. But no one I talked to seems to think of him as a big league starter at first base.
Q: willy from
pitt
asks:
At what point can we forget about F-Mart's age
and start
expecting him to perform? Next year? The year after? It seems like even
if he's
young, if he's to be ranked so high year after year, he should have to
produce.
Do you like him or Wilmer Flores better?
A:
John Manuel: I'm starting next year; he ranked that high because the scouts I talked to did like him better than they did last year and people do see significant upside with the bat. But at some point, he has to produce. We'll see if he starts in Buffalo. Him vs. Flores is a tough call; Flores has fewer warts right now and has done something Martinez has yet to do, dominate a league. So I'd give an edge to the infielder who seems to have as much upside offensively, if not more.
Toby: Fernando hit .333/.389/.505 in the SAL as a 17 year old in 2006. I’d say that’s dominating. Oh, and he was BA’s #3 prospect in the Eastern League in 2007.
Q: Lance from Memphis, TN
asks:
How close were other Mets to making the list,
such as Nick
Evans, Eddie Kunz, Robert Parnell, and Mike Carp? A:
John Manuel: Evans and Kunz and Parnell got some positive reviews, especially Kunz, who like Bard gets a lot of groundballs and enough swings and misses. Not sure why he didn't get more of a shot with the big league club; same with Parnell, who showed a big arm in the big leagues. He does seem better suited to relieve than start. I still like Evans more than Carp, though Carp's profile is a bit better since he's a LH hitter. Evans is a better defender and has more raw power; Carp's plate approach is more polished. That is about the extent of it.
Q: Blake Guyer
from Madison, WI asks:
Why F-Mart over Austin Jackson? Did age become
the
difference maker in the rankings of these two players? A:
John Manuel: More offensive upside.
Q: Raul Rivero
from Tidewater, Virginia
asks:
Daniel Murphy: future All-Star, solid regular or
pinch
hitter? Thanks! A:
John Manuel: Solid regular.
3. Tuesday in HWB
The North Shore Honu scored twice in the bottom of the 10th inning off Mets reliever Roy Merritt to beat the Honolulu Sharks and their many Mets 11-10.
Junior Guerra: 2.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 1 K
Roy Merritt: L, 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
SS Ruben Tejada: 2-6, 2 R, CS
2B Greg Veloz: 3-5, R, 2 RBI, K – 2 E
1B Jordan Abruzzo: 1-2, 2B - E
4. The 2008 St. Lucie Mets
The Mets Florida State League team finished with a league worst 53-81 record. However, the good news in terms of wins and losses is that after a dreadful 19-50 first half, the club improved to go 34-31 in the second half, finishing 5.5 games behind the first place Daytona Cubs.
The Mets started the season as poorly as a team possibly could – by losing its first six games. Before April was out, the Mets had lost 11 in a row on their way to a 5-21 opening month. May, which featured a 12 game skid, was not much kinder, as the team finished the month 7-22.
As a team, the Mets lived near the bottom of the league statistical record boards in most categories. The team ERA of 4.43 was the worst in the league by over a third of a run. The Mets did walk just 389 batters, second fewest on the circuit. However, all of those strikes came at a cost, the staff gave up the second most homers (107), and struck out the second fewest (902) of any of the league’s units. The team scored 517 runs (3.7 r/g), second worst in the league and was in the bottom third of the league in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, 2B, BB, and SB.
Catchers
Jordan Abruzzo –S/R – 6’2” 220 lbs – 13th rd ’07 – b. 8/2/24
|
|
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
SSA |
49 |
182 |
50 |
9 |
0 |
7 |
8 |
27 |
0 |
0 |
.275 |
.309 |
.440 |
|
A |
54 |
203 |
61 |
13 |
1 |
5 |
13 |
36 |
1 |
0 |
.300 |
.347 |
.448 |
|
A+ |
19 |
66 |
20 |
4 |
0 |
2 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
0 |
.303 |
.333 |
.455 |
Abruzzo hit his way out of Savannah and into the middle of the St. Lucie batting order in the first two months of 2008. So the Mets rewarded him by sending him down two levels from St. Lucie to Brooklyn on July12th. Abruzzo is a free-swinger with some pop from each side. The combination of his receiving abilities and modest power will keep him in baseball for the foreseeable future. He profiles as an org guy or, if he’s lucky, a backup catcher somewhere along the line.
Abruzzo will have a chance to improve his stock slightly in HWB this fall.
Likely 2009 Start: AA
Josh Thole – L/R – 6’2” 205 lbs – 13th rd ’05 – b. 10/28/86
|
|
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
A+ |
111 |
347 |
104 |
25 |
2 |
5 |
56 |
45 |
2 |
1 |
.300 |
.382 |
.427 |
Josh Thole knows the difference between a strike and a ball. For the third time in four years as a professional, Josh Thole had more walks than strikeouts. In 2008, he started to convert those pitch capabilities abilities into a nascent ability to drive the ball. His 25 doubles and five homers each exceeded his total from his first three seasons (23 and 2, respectively) and 591 professional Abs.
The left-handed hitting Thole actually had an OPS 11 points higher against left-handed pitchers than against righties.
So, that kind of production, from a catcher - good contact skills, with burgeoning pop - makes Thole a really good prospect right? Not so fast. Can he handle catcher? Thole led FSL catchers with a .994 fielding percentage, and was fifth in the league among qualified backstops (a short list) by throwing out 22.5% of baserunners. In less than 20 innings of observation, I did not focus enough on Thole’s defense behind the dish to have strong opinions on his capabilities. JJ Cooper at BA recently wrote of Thole, “there are few who liked his work at catcher.”
I’ll add here that there are questions about nearly all young catchers’ abilities behind the plate. A young shortstop or centerfielder can blow a scout away with speed, hands, and arm. Catchers by contrast can show the tools – arm, footwork, transfer – but at no other position on the diamond, is there as much to learn to become an MLB caliber defender. For example, catchers must learn to handle pitchers, read batters swings, read pitches, refine their blocking mechanics, refine their footwork, smooth out the transfer from glove to hand.
The Mets are challenging Thole by sending him to the Arizona Fall League. I look forward to reports on his progress, and specifically his defense from the desert. I might or might not make a trip to AZ myself.
Likely 2009 Start: AA
Infielders
Lucas Duda – L/R – 6’4” 225 lbs – 7th Rd 2007 – b. 2/3/86
|
|
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
A+ |
133 |
483 |
127 |
26 |
3 |
11 |
66 |
129 |
2 |
7 |
.263 |
.358 |
.398 |
This is real simple: hitting .263/.358/.398 is not enough for a 22-year old in the FSL who wants to be considered a top prospect.
Likely 2009 Start: AA
Ruben Tejada – R/R – 5’11” 160 lbs – NDFA ’06 – b. 10/27/89
|
|
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
A+ |
131 |
497 |
114 |
19 |
4 |
2 |
41 |
77 |
8 |
5 |
.229 |
.293 |
.296 |
Tejada had absolutely no business playing every day in the FSL. In 2007, Tejada hit .283/.401/.367 in 32 G in the GCL and won the Sterling Award in the VSL where he hit .364/.434/.423. Tejada should have played for the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2008.
When I first got to St. Lucie, I was worried I’d have trouble picking out the players I wanted to watch. Identifying Tejada was easy. He was the little dude picking every ball at shortstop. That’s Tejada’s greatest strength: his excellent hands. He has more than enough arm for SS, but it’s an average arm, not a cannon. He showed good range moving to his left, but some hesitation smooth working to his backhand. His manager, Tim Teuffel was pleased with Tejada’s progress.
Tejada is off to a good start in HWB.
Likely 2009 Start: A+. Tejada should repeat the FSL and earn his way up to Binghamton.
Outfielders
CF Ezequiel Carrera – L/L – 5’10” 180 lbs – NDFA ’05 – b. 6/11/87
|
|
G |
AB |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
|
A+ |
114 |
430 |
113 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
46 |
86 |
28 |
9 |
.263 |
.344 |
.393 |
Ezequiel Carrera skipped from the GCL to the top of the St. Lucie batting order. He has a plus big league tool: top flight speed. He uses his blazing speed to good effect in all phases of his game. While he struggles to take the right routes on balls over his head or in the gaps, he can outrun his own initial hesitation to cover a lot of ground in center. When he yanks a ball down the rightfield line, like Jose Reyes, he’s more likely to land at third than second.
Carrera shows some developing plate discipline, but will need to become even more patient to profile as a true top of the order threat.
Likely ’09 start: AA
Pitchers
LHP Michael Antonini – R/L – 6’0” 190 – 18th Rd ’07 – b. 8/6/85
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
A |
4-4 |
2.71 |
13/13 |
73.0 |
63 |
29 |
22 |
2 |
16 |
61 |
|
A+ |
4-0 |
1.84 |
7/7 |
44.0 |
34 |
10 |
9 |
3 |
7 |
33 |
|
AA |
1-3 |
3.74 |
8/8 |
45.2 |
43 |
19 |
19 |
10 |
16 |
32 |
Antonini had a great year, earning his promotions first to St. Lucie and then to Binghamton.
The night I saw him in Binghamton, Antonini worked off a fastball that was 87-91, but mostly 88/89. He commanded it to both sides of the plate. He faced a lineup with eight batters who hit from the right side and featured his changeup as his second pitch. It was inconsistent, without great movement and often elevated. He allowed a homerun on an elevated changeup at 83 mph. He was cautious about throwing his slider to the RHH, and with good reason, since it was a little sweeping.
Note that once Antonini reached AA, his homerun and walk rates spiked, while his strikeout rate was 6.3 K/9, the lowest of any of his three stops in 2008.
Likely 09 Start: AA
RHP Nicholas Carr – R/R – 6’0 200 lbs – 41st Rd ’05 – b. 4/19/87
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
A |
1-2 |
3.33 |
4/4 |
24.1 |
22 |
11 |
9 |
0 |
4 |
16 |
|
A+ |
2-10 |
5.70 |
22/21 |
94.1 |
103 |
64 |
60 |
10 |
50 |
80 |
The Mets skipped Carr over the SAL straight from Brooklyn in 2007 to the Florida State League in 2008, and the results were simply ugly early. Through June 5, he was 0-7 with a 7.19 ERA, when the Mets sent him down to Savannah to get right. Life was a little better in the SAL, but he was forced back to the FSL in early July when the system was short on arms due to a number of injuries.
However, Carr finished 2008 by making his last two starts his best of the year. In his last 12 innings, Carr didn’t allow a run, gave up seven hits, walked three and struck out 13.
Carr still has a big-time special arm. He throws 90-95 and was sitting at 92-93. However, in July in the FSL, he had only a slight idea where the ball was going when it left his hand. He threw his below average slider (~80 mph) and change (~84/85 mph) sparingly.
I’d suggest that Carr’s future is in the bullpen, but I’d like to see him repeat the FSL as a starter in 2009, and experience some success, and pick up more repetitions, before moving to AA.
Likely 09 Start: A+
RHP Stephen Clyne – R/R – 6’2” 215 – 3rd Rd 07 – b. 9/22/07
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
SSA |
2-2 |
2.82 |
17/0 |
22.1 |
19 |
9 |
7 |
1 |
12 |
23 |
|
A+ |
1-3 |
5.92 |
27/0 |
38.0 |
36 |
30 |
25 |
3 |
15 |
23 |
Clyne was the third college reliever the Mets picked in 2007, behind Eddie Kunz and Brant Rustich. Like Carr, Clyne was promoted directly from Brooklyn to St. Lucie, and like Carr, struggled early. Clyne gave up 25 runs in his first 20 innings in St. Lucie. However, he turned a corner in June yielding just five runs in his next 18 innings before being sent down to Brooklyn to help out the Cyclones.
Clyne is a potentially very good middle reliever. His fastball was 91-93 and scouts saw his slider as a potentially plus pitch.
I wrote about Clyne making a mechanical adjustment here.
Likely ’09 Start: A+, although with a strong spring, AA is not out of the question
RHP Dillon Gee – R/R – 6’1” 195 – 21st rd ’07 – b. 4/28/86
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
A+ |
8-6 |
3.25 |
21/21 |
127.1 |
117 |
49 |
46 |
6 |
19 |
94 |
|
AA |
2-0 |
1.33 |
4/4 |
27.0 |
18 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
5 |
20 |
Gee had a successful run in the Florida State League posting a great strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly 5 (4.95). It’s worth pointing out that like Carr, Clyne and Owen, he jumped straight from Brooklyn to St. Lucie and thrived. However, I’m suspicious of pitchers who experience success at the advanced A level without fanning a batter an inning.
In July, Gee was throwing 89-91 with his fastball which he spotted reasonably well. I had heard reports of slightly better velo at other times. His second best pitch was a changeup with some nice run. His soft curve was his third pitch.
Likely 09 start: AA
RHP Dylan Owen – R/R – 5’11” 203 lbs – 20th rd ‘07 – b. 7/12/86
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
A+ |
12-6 |
3.43 |
24/24 |
133.2 |
135 |
55 |
51 |
12 |
33 |
116 |
|
AA |
1-1 |
5.51 |
3/3 |
16.1 |
20 |
10 |
10 |
3 |
9 |
15 |
Owen and Gee were back-to-back picks in 2007. In 2007, Owen led the NYP in wins and ERA while earning the team’s Sterling Award. Both pitchers hopped right from Brooklyn to the FSL. Like Gee, Owen had great success in the FSL by throwing lots of strikes with a superb K/BB rate (3.51). Unlike Gee, Owen’s first taste of AA did not go well.
Owen throws a fastball that’s mostly upper 80s, a slider and a changeup.
Likely 09 start: AA
RHP Tobi Stoner – S/R – 6’3” 203 – 16th rd ’06 – b. 12/3/84
|
|
W-L |
ERA |
G/GS |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
|
A+ |
1-5 |
2.60 |
9/9 |
52.0 |
46 |
17 |
15 |
3 |
9 |
48 |
|
AA |
4-6 |
4.33 |
15/15 |
79.0 |
80 |
39 |
38 |
7 |
29 |
59 |
Another late round pick made good, Stoner found AA a whole lot tougher than A-ball. His K/BB rate declined from 5.33 to 2.03 as he moved up a level while his strikeout rate dropped from 8.31 K/9 to 6.72 K/9.
Likely 09 start: AA. AAA is a possibility as dictated by organizational need in spring training, but I view AA as the likelier scenario.