Mets Minor League Report 11-17-08
Toby Hyde
If you’re receiving this email, you know that I haven’t sent out very many newsletters in the last month and a half. However, I have been posting multiple times daily at my site at www.metsminorleagueblog.com. For all of the latest, please go to the website. The domestic winter leagues in Hawaii and Arizona are wrapping up, but there’s plenty of daily action across the Caribbean. Soon, I’ll be getting into some prospect rankings.
At one time this mailing list was my top priority, but no longer. The site comes first.
And in case you’ve been wondering, through Saturday’s action in the Dominican Republic, Fernando Martinez has hit safely in seven straight games for an overall batting line of .379/.422/.621 in 58 at-bats. He’s third in the league in AVG and fourth in OPS.
In this issue:
1. Sign Kerry Wood
2. HWB Concludes
3. AFL Weekend
1. The Mets Should Sign Kerry Wood
The Mets should sign Kerry Wood to be their bullpen ace in 2009.
Late last week, the Chicago Cubs foolish traded for Kevin Gregg and then announced that the team would not bring back Kerry Wood, sending Wood out to the open market. Wood had accepted a hometown discount in 2008 to remain a Cub, but now the Cubbies say they aren’t interested. The Mets should be.
The 2008 Numbers
Compare the 2008 performance of the best free agent closers and Bobby Jenks, who has been linked to the Mets in trade rumors, in the table below.
|
|
Age '09 |
IP |
RA |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
HR/FB % |
GB% |
Type |
|
Wood |
31 |
66.1 |
3.26 |
11.4 |
1.9 |
4.6 |
39.4 |
A |
|
Rodriguez |
27 |
68.1 |
2.77 |
10.1 |
4.5 |
7.1 |
42.4 |
A |
|
Fuentes |
33 |
62.2 |
3.16 |
11.78 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
32.6 |
A |
|
Jenks |
28 |
62.2 |
2.63 |
5.55 |
2.5 |
5.7 |
57.6 |
- |
|
Hoffman |
41 |
45.1 |
3.77 |
9.13 |
1.8 |
17.1 |
39 |
B |
Context:
- Wood’s 66.1 IP in 2008 were the most he’d thrown since 2004. He narrowly edged out his 66.0 from an injury-marred 2005 and fell well shy of the 140.1 he threw in 22 starts in 2004.
- Rodriguez’s strikeout rate was his lowest since 2003 and his walk rate was the second highest of his career, behind only the 4.54 BB/9 he posted in 2007.
- Fuentes’ HR/fb rate in 2008 was a career low, following seasons of 9.4, 9.3, 9.8, 9.7 in 2004-2008.
- Jenks strikeout rate was a new career low.
- Hoffman's gb% was a career high, although it has remained over 30 each of the last five years. His HR/FB was at a five-year high versus a low of 2.9% in 2007 when he allowed two homers to 2008's 8.
In signing a type A free agent, the Mets would forfeit their first round draft pick to the player’s former team. So Wood, Rodriguez and Fuentes would all cost the Mets their first-rounder, while the team losing the player would also net a supplemental pick after the first round. Hoffman, the oldest of the group, would not cost the Mets a draft pick of their own. Bobby Jenks wouldn’t either, but he would cost the Mets some other young talent.
All pitchers carry risk and all multi-year pitcher contracts are risky propositions. However, based on recent performance, I see Kerry Wood as the ideal fit for the New York Mets. Hoffman, despite his age, is enticing as well.
Why Wood over K-Rod?
Wood throws more strikes and struck out more hitters. He’ll be cheaper. K-Rod is no longer the pitcher he once was. His strikeout rate dropped in 2008, while his walk rates have trended gently upward. Most concerning, is that batters have hit him consistently harder in each full year of his career.
Examine K-Rod’s career:
|
|
IP |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
H9 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2003 |
86.0 |
3.66 |
9.94 |
5.23 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2004 |
84.0 |
3.54 |
13.18 |
5.46 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2005 |
67.1 |
4.28 |
12.16 |
6.01 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2006 |
73.0 |
3.45 |
12.08 |
6.41 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2007 |
67.1 |
4.54 |
12.03 |
6.68 |
|||||||||||||||||
|
2008 |
68.1 |
4.48 |
10.14 |
7.11 |
And now graphically, just for fun:
Why Wood over Fuentes?
Wood has a better walk rate, and ground ball rate, while Fuentes has a higher strikeout rate. Both had very similar WHIP in 2008. Despite the fact that Fuentes is a few years older than Wood, because he was a starter as a younger pitcher, Wood has thrown about three times as many innings as Fuentes in their respective careers. However, Wood threw all those innings because he was one of the best pitching talents in baseball. He’ll never be the Kerry Wood of 2003 again, but some part of that pitcher is still around.
Why Wood over Hoffman?
These two pitchers share the lowest walk rates on the chart above while Wood still misses more bats. It’s impossible to dismiss the 10-year age gap between the two when discussing value over a multi-year contract. However, working strongly in Hoffman’s favor is that he’s a type B free agent who would only cost the Mets money. Potentially, he would also be interested in a shorter contract than the other big names on the market. For the right price, Hoffman is mighty tempting.
Why Not Jenks
One of the Closers above is not like the others: Bobby Jenks. First, he’s not a free agent. Second, his strikeout rate is strikeout rate was roughly half that of the other elite closers, but he has compensated with an outrageously high groundball rate. Jenks career MLB walk, strikeout and groundball rates follow.
|
Year |
Age |
BB/9 |
SO/9 |
GB% |
|
2005 |
24 |
3.3 |
11.3 |
44.6 |
|
2006 |
25 |
3.6 |
10 |
58.8 |
|
2007 |
26 |
1.4 |
7.6 |
53.8 |
|
2008 |
27 |
1.9 |
5.6 |
57.6 |
Jenks has induced lots and lots of groundballs. After struggling with control issues earlier in his career, his walk rate has remained below two in 2007 and 2008. However, his strikeout rate has plummeted in the last four years. This is a huge red flag. Jenks is an attractive option only at a very cheap price.
Notes
I prompted to write this by a few notes from readers asking me about the Mets and the closer market. Also, Sunday, Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus, compared Kerry Wood to Francisco Rodriguez here. I expanded the analysis to include a fuller picture of the available closers.
The categories of HR/FB% and GB% were culled from the Hardball Times Website. RA, K/9, BB/9 are all widely available.
2. HWB Wraps Up
The Hawaii Winter Baseball Season has come to a close. HWB is played at a level slightly above advanced-A, but not all the way up to AA. None of the Met hitters assigned to the league performed up to league average.
|
Player |
AB |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
OPS as % of League AVERAGE |
|
HWB Average |
4779 |
.248 |
.337 |
.370 |
.707 |
- |
|
Jordan Abruzzo |
70 |
.200 |
.273 |
.229 |
.502 |
71 |
|
Ruben Tejada |
86 |
.233 |
.284 |
.291 |
.575 |
81 |
|
Greg Veloz |
87 |
.207 |
.281 |
.230 |
.511 |
72 |
However, RHP Scott Shaw had an excellent run in the islands.
2-2, 2.51 ERA, 32.1 IP, 12 H, 13 R, 9 ER, 1 HR, 4 HB, 9 BB, 35 K, 6 WP, 0.65 WHIP, .110 Opp AVG.
3. Weekend in the AFL
C Josh Thole: 1-4, BB, SO, 2 RBI - .355
LHP Jason Vargas: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO - 2.28 ERA
RHP Tobi Stoner: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO - 2.50 ERA
Eddie Kunz pitched a 1-2-3 ninth with a strikeout for his second win as the Sags rallied for three runs in the bottom of the frame. Kunz threw seven of his 11 pitches for strikes.
Daniel Murphy has not played since Monday, November 10th.
Toby Hyde has covered the Mets since 2004. Please visit my site at www.metsminorleagueblog.com.