>Date: Thu, 30 Aug 2007 09:30:42 -0400
>From: "Paul D. Fernhout" <
pdfer...@kurtz-fernhout.com>
>To:
ba-unr...@bootstrap.org>Subject: Re: [ba-unrev-talk] Douglas C. Engelbart's Call to Action at Google
> Video
>Sender:
owner-ba-...@bootstrap.org>Reply-To:
ba-unr...@bootstrap.org>
>Mei Lin-
>
>I enjoyed this video as a great summary of Doug's vision. Thanks for sharing
>it.
>
>This is the first post to either ba-unrev-talk or ba-ohs-talk I have
>received in a long time; I had not thought these lists still active.
>
>Here are some comments on seeing the video and perusing my copy of the
>mailing lists. Wow, we had some fun discussions. I forget how wonderful and
>inspiring many of the email conversations were.
>
>The biggest thing I got out of participating in these mailing lists was a
>sense of how much was going on in the world in the field of knowledge
>management and related tools and paradigms. And the thing one can see from
>the video is how much there is yet to do in terms of the paradigm shift Doug
>talks about moving from what might be termed a page centered view to a more
>finely grained view of information including with multiple views of the same
>data, perhaps determined in some linking fashion.
>
>If there is one disappointment about these lists given the Bootstrap idea it
>is that we as a group did not make a transition form a mailing list to using
>OHS-type tools to expand these discussions into more structured forms
>(IBIS-like) -- including from my point of view for licensing reasons.
>Although Rod Welch at Welcho had one approach to that (though not a free one
>at the time, sadly, either in terms of code or content). And there is now
>OpenAugment in Squeak, and several other tools of various sorts (outliners
>and so on). And there was another effort by a student. As is said in the
>video, structured representation are hard work (echoing IBM's Thomas
>Watson's comments that thinking is hard work, but very important). Still, as
>was said in an old post by someone else, tools can help with building
>structure from unstructured text -- Google's search engine is one such
>approach -- so we are seeing new paradigms emerge beyond human labor to
>build information networks we can use to seek information and wisdom. I know
>these discussions used to be available through the web, but sadly the
>current links do not seem to work except for the original unrev-ii stuff; I
>hope someday they are back online so they can be part of search engine results.
>
>A lot has happened over the last few years since the bulk of the
>conversations of this list wound down. Google has become a household world,
>and it and other search engines have become things many people use many
>times a day. Wikipedia has gone from nothing to a useful source of
>information on just about anything. A worldwide network of blogs comment on
>everything under the sun as well as each other (so, the blog entry became a
>form of cross-referenced document). SourceForge (and other sites) have
>become repositories for hundreds of thousands of free and open source
>software projects worked on by millions of developers; the GNU Public
>License GPL and other free and open source software licenses have become
>constitutions of collaboration for these subgroups. And email archives put
>on the web via mailman, Yahoo groups, Google groups (after Google bought
>dejanews and so has all of Usenet too), and so on have continued to expand,
>and coupled with individuals growing personal email archives add up to a
>huge set of on-line information about a variety of topics. Java and the JVM
>has finally gone truly free, and most of the worst bugs are finally out of
>it, making it finally a good cross-platform choice for tools, especially if
>you program it with, say, Jython. GNU/Linux has gone from obscurity to a
>market force, and is now about to be in the hands of hundreds of millions of
>children worldwide in the guise of the One Laptop Per Child project.
>
>That last was something I hopefully predicted here on one of the Bootstrap
>lists back in 2000: :-)
> "The DKR hardware I'd like to make..."
>
http://www.bootstrap.org/dkr/discussion/0754.html>"And remember that in five years this entire thing will cost US$100 each.
>Consider a couple of these souped up devices given to each village in
>Africa. Anyone with $1 billion for true development aid to 500,000
>African villages? (This is just the cost of one unfinished dam or one
>shut down nuclear plant.)"
>So, score one point for this list predicting the future (or encouraging it. :-)
>
>To an extent, with its user interface guidelines talking about activities
>and a common journal and a free exchange of applications,
>
http://wiki.laptop.org/go/OLPC_Human_Interface_Guidelines>the OLPC represents yet another step towards realizing the vision Doug outlines.
>
>But in every case, there still remains much to do to continue improving
>things. But that is what a (Meta) Network Improvement Community is all
>about. :-)
>
>These themes from the video still have great resonance:
>* Easy to use versus a great investment to learn.
>* Barriers to paradigm shifts: moving from flipping pages to flying around
>data trees.
>* How far we have come, but how much there is yet to do.
>
>Like Alan Kay and others with the seed of Smalltalk in the 1960s, or AI
>pioneers with various search and knowledge storage ideas which they did not
>have the hardware to try in the 1960s (Google is a practical example now),
>or others, Doug's ideas from the 1950s and 1960s have informed us for
>decades, even if the early paradigm-changing implementations were eclipsed
>by more expedient systems tied up in older paradigms. But with computers
>getting more powerful, we can expect even more possibilities to open up to
>realize the vision Doug outlines -- as well as to motivate it. The 1980s
>Apple II desktop was 1Mhz with 4K RAM, The Apple MacPro desktop of today is
>eight cores at 3Ghz with 4GB RAM, the $4000 equivalent Apple of 2030 desktop
>will likely (extrapolating from Moore's law like I did to predict the OLPC
>specs) have the equivalent of millions of cores each at 3GHz or faster
>speeds and enough RAM to hold the entire surface internet of today --
>4000TB. Or, using its 300,000 TB of long term storage (disk?) space you
>could just perhaps store the interesting bits of life video for perhaps a
>hundred thousand people or so -- and storing all of human music currently on
>CD would be trivial and not even noticeably strain such a computer's
>capacity (but there might be little point, as the system could possibly be
>able to just improvise music to suit your mood if you asked it. :-) And of
>course it would come with a *3D* printer. So, things will continue to change
>a lot -- and likely ever faster. Related links:
>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law>
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1>
http://www.bootstrap.org/dkr/discussion/0126.html>
http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm>
>For me, a big thing I think about now is Manuel de Landa's notion of a need
>for a balance between meshwork and hierarchy.
>
http://t0.or.at/delanda/meshwork.htm>"Indeed, one must resist the temptation to make hierarchies into villains
>and meshworks into heroes, not only because, as I said, they are constantly
>turning into one another, but because in real life we find only mixtures and
>hybrids, and the properties of these cannot be established through theory
>alone but demand concrete experimentation. ... After all, meshworks grow by
>drift and they may drift to places where we do not want to go. The
>goal-directedness of hierarchies is the kind of property that we may desire
>to keep at least for certain institutions. Hence, demonizing centralization
>and glorifying decentralization as the solution to all our problems would be
>wrong. An open and experimental attitude towards the question of different
>hybrids and mixtures is what the complexity of reality itself seems to call
>for."
>
>It's not clear to me the big problems in the world which are front page
>(starvation, war, pollution, oil getting more expensive, economic
>perturbations) are due mainly to complexity. I think they have more to do
>with a balance of power in terms of meshwork and hierarchy which has gone
>too far in some directions. Still, tools to help manage complexity may well
>help in finding a way to a good balance of power which will help humanity
>and the rest of the biosphere and now noosphere survive and prosper. But
>ultimately:
>* There is skill -- or knowing how to do something, and
>* there is wisdom -- or knowing what is worth doing, and
>* there is virtue -- or actually doing what is worth doing.
>Intelligence of one form or another is just a skill, like being good at
>soccer or being a good listener. You really need all three (skill, wisdom,
>virtue) to some degree to have a chance at a good life. Well, all those and
>also time. :-)
>
>So any dynamic knowledge repository systems we create will still be limited
>by our collective wisdom and virtue in the rest of the Networked Improvement
>community (or culture). Will a NIC help with developing wisdom and virtue?
>I'm sure we will see. One can hope.
>
>Doug's "Unfinished Revolution" may still be unfinished -- but that's the
>nature of all great works that evolve, especially ones that involve groups
>instead of solitary individuals. We can just look back and see how far we
>have come -- and it has been very far.
>
>Thanks Doug (and Mei Lin and many others) for all your past and present and
>continuing good works in positive directions.
>
>--Paul Fernhout
>
--
User Experience and Interaction Design :: http://www.mprove.de