Climate change migrations to cause future conflicts: Report

[Shakti Vahini]

Climate change migrations to cause future conflicts: Report New Delhi, Sep 6 : Wars and conflicts have caused large-scale migration of people in history, but now in future, migrations caused by the impending climate change would themselves lead to and exacerbate existing tensions, says a Report on Security Implications of Climate Change for India. Though migration leading to conflicts is not a totally new thing, as many ongoing insurgencies in the north-east are due to illegal migration, there are projections that indicate that due to the loss of habitat caused by climatic changes, large-scale migrations would be a frequent and regular feature in the coming times, it said. ''More than the pull factor of greener pastures, climate-related migration will mostly be push factors, though both would work in tandem,'' says the Report brought out by the Defence Studies and Analyses(IDSA). According to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) projections, the population of India is expected to increase from 1,0299 million to 1400 million during 2001-2026 -- an increase from 313 to 426 persons per square kilometre. Of these, 187 million is likely to occur in the seven states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which combined with consequences of climatic changes would put great strain on their resources prompting people to migrate. Based on medium term projections, India is all set to overtake China in less than 50 years. Projections for India by 2050 is 160 crore, for Pakistan 35.8 crore and for Bangladesh 28.33 crore. In Asia, migration accounts for 64 per cent of urban growth. During periods when rain shortfalls coincide with adverse economic conditions for farmers, there was likely to be sudden spurt in rural to urban migration levels in China and India. Climate change in Pakistan and Bangladesh would likely aggravate the present environmental degradation, shortfall in food production, rural poverty and urban unrest. An increase in global warming will lead to melting of arctic snow, causing a rise in sea level. According to NATCOM, a one metre sea-level rise was projected to displace approximately 7.1 million people in India and about 5,76 square kilometres of land area will be lost, along with 4200 kilometres of roads. Even if the sea-level rise is not one metre and is just 40 cm by most conservative estimates by the end of this century, this would increase the number of people annually in the coastal population, from 13 million to 94 million. Almost 60 per cent of this increase will occur in South Asia(along the coast from Pakistan through India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh). This would increase migration not only within India but also to India from its neighbouring countries like Bangladesh and Nepal. With projected population growth, migrants to India from Nepal and Bangladesh are already likely to increase. Though it may never be possible to establish how much would be due to climate change or rise in sea-level, Himalayan degradation or loss of fertility and other reasons, but with more extremities such as drought and floods caused by global increase in temperature and their impact on productivity, migrations may be most direct cause of tension in the near future. Within India, the traditional migration from rain fed rural areas to cities will have to bear the added stress of climate change induced droughts and floods. It is projected that every 1.0 degree Centigrade rise in temperature would reduce wheat production by 4-5 million tonnes in India. Besides, there will be migration from hills to plains as snow melts fast and hill areas are short of water. People will move from the seven high population growth states to those with low population growth and high development index. As cities on the coast would no longer be attractive, hinterland cities may get more migrants than in normal circumstances. The Report says that for intra-state migration, a national debate must be initiated to place the problem in proper perspective. ''While all measures need to be initiated to negate the ''sons of soil'' theory, allowing free movement of people without necessary checks and balances could lead to high conflict situation,'' says the Report. Moreover, counter-migration and urbanisation strategies need to be put in place by creating diverse livelihood options in situ. The authors of the report advocate that Gandhian model needs to be augmented with the PURA (Providing Urban Ameniteis in Rural Areas) model of former President Abdul Kalam. They also suggest that the problem of the likely influx of climate migrants from neighbouring states--especially Bangladesh and Nepal-- needs to be discussed jointly with the countries to devise suitable strategies to avoid conflict. --UNI www.shaktivahini.org www.mediacoalition.in www.indialawyers.wordpress.com www.mediacoalition.wordpress.com www.savearravali.wordpress.com Delhi Office : 011- 42870188 Faridabad Office : 0129- 4045365

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