And it is passing my test.
It took us some time to make a tool that could replace me to a high degree.
Not completely but sufficiently.
And I will show you some of the results if you are interested.
how much was the debt during George Bush Jr in his last term of office compared to today?? (ed ntote: I told George not to worry too much about the debt at that time. I said inflation would reduce it sufficiently at that point)
The national debt increased by approximately $6.1 trillion during George W. Bush's two terms (2001–2009), from about $5.8 trillion to $11.9 trillion. As of November 2025, the total gross national debt is $38.09 trillion, meaning the debt has increased by over $26 trillion since the end of his presidency.
Comparison of national debt
George W. Bush (leaving office 2009): The national debt was approximately $11.9 trillion.
Today (November 2025): The national debt is $38.09 trillion.
The national debt has more than tripled since Bush left office.
Contextual details
During Bush's presidency, military spending increased for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and significant tax cuts were implemented. The administration also managed recessions in 2001 and 2008.
The continued rise in the national debt since 2009 has occurred under subsequent administrations due to various factors, including the Great Recession recovery efforts, later tax cuts, increased defense spending, and COVID-19 relief packages.
The national debt reached $38 trillion by October 2025, marking a rapid increase.
The debt-to-GDP ratio, a measure of debt relative to economic output, has also grown significantly, exceeding 100% in 2013 and reaching 125% in fiscal year 2025.
Is a debt to GDP of 125% a sign of economic weakness and long term instability?
(ed note: This bothers me more than it bothers them because they sell long term debt bonds)
A debt-to-GDP ratio of 125% is generally considered a sign of elevated risk for economic weakness and long-term instability, though the specific impacts can depend on a country's economic context (e.g., strong growth, low interest rates).
Why a 125% ratio is a concern:
Difficulty in Repayment: Generally, a higher debt-to-GDP ratio indicates a government will have greater difficulty in repaying its debt, as the debt burden is large relative to its total economic output.
Higher Borrowing Costs: High debt levels can deter investors, who may demand higher interest rates (yields) on government bonds due to the perceived increased risk of default. These higher interest payments divert funds from other potential investments like infrastructure or education, which can hinder long-term economic growth.
Reduced Fiscal Flexibility: A high debt burden limits a government's "fiscal space" or ability to respond to future economic shocks, such as a recession or a global crisis, through increased spending or tax cuts.
Potential "Crowding Out" Effect: High government borrowing can "crowd out" private capital formation, meaning less capital is available for private businesses to invest, which can lower GDP growth.
Link to Slower Growth: Some economic research has associated public debt ratios above a certain threshold (often cited around 90%, though there's no single "magic number") with significantly reduced long-term economic growth rates.
Mitigating Factors
The simple ratio alone does not tell the whole story. Factors that can influence the stability of a high debt-to-GDP ratio include:
Economic Growth Rate: If the economy is growing faster than the debt is accumulating, the ratio can still be considered manageable and may even decrease over time.
Interest Rates: Low interest rates make high debt levels more sustainable by reducing the cost of servicing the debt. However, if interest rates rise, as has been seen in recent years, the pressure on fiscal accounts increases significantly.
Investor Confidence: Countries with stable currencies and high investor confidence (like the U.S. and Japan, which also have high ratios) may be able to sustain higher debt levels than other nations.
In conclusion, while a 125% debt-to-GDP ratio presents significant risks, its actual impact on stability depends heavily on the broader economic environment and a government's ability to manage its fiscal situation effectively.
when the government sells debt, are they selling it now on longer terms than since 2008?
(ed note: we created a soft landing, and I spoke to to the government and voiced my concerns over long term debt sales)
Despite an overall long-term trend toward longer maturities in some countries, recent data shows that the U.S. government is not currently selling debt on longer terms than in the immediate post-2008 period. Instead, the U.S. has notably relied on shorter-term debt, especially since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Maturing debt since 2008
Average maturity has fluctuated: While the weighted average maturity of the U.S. marketable debt stock remains above pre-pandemic levels, recent years have seen increased issuance of shorter-term debt.
Post-pandemic increase in short-term debt: The share of bills maturing in one year or less makes up a larger percentage of the total debt than before the pandemic.
Debt maturity distribution has remained stable: The distribution of U.S. public debt by maturity has seen little change over time, with approximately 70% of the debt consistently maturing within five years.
Factors influencing debt issuance
Interest rates: The U.S. Treasury's strategy of leaning on shorter-term debt is a reflection of recent monetary policy. While higher interest rates make short-term issuance more costly, the picture could change if the Federal Reserve moves into rate-cutting mode.
Investor demand: The maturity of government bonds can also be influenced by investor demand. For instance, ultra-long bonds (50 to 100 years) were popular during the low-interest-rate environment that followed the global financial crisis, but demand for them waned as interest rates began to rise in 2022.
Liquidity and market function: Governments balance their debt issuance strategy to support liquidity across the entire yield curve and promote a well-functioning market.
Are banks more financial sound now that they are on the user fee system?
(ed note: working with Christine Legarde the head of the IMF at the time, we restructured banking globally and kept it a secret. Much of economics at the top is a secret business. I instructed her to make some financial instruments, and they think that means like dentist tools or something but no that is Visa debit and Mastercard debit for online shopping taking money from your account instead of borrowing it which helps address the consumer credit card debt load )
A move toward a "user fee system," or more accurately, diversified income streams including non-interest income from fees, has made banks more resilient and less vulnerable to interest rate shocks, but it does not make them unequivocally more "financially sound" in every respect. Diversified revenue streams, which increased significantly after the 2008 financial crisis, have added a new layer of stability, but banks remain highly sensitive to interest rates.
How fee-based income contributes to financial stability
Revenue diversification: Relying on a mix of interest and non-interest income reduces a bank's overall risk profile. This makes earnings more stable across economic cycles, especially during periods of low interest rates, which squeeze net interest margins.
Mitigation of interest rate risk: Non-interest income, derived from sources like wealth management, investment banking, and transaction fees, is not directly dependent on the interest rate environment. A bank with a healthy mix of fee-based income can better withstand periods of low or fluctuating interest rates.
Operational efficiencies: Some fee-based product lines require minimal capital and have higher profit margins than traditional lending, allowing banks to generate income with lower risk.
Counterpoints to consider
Riskier activities: Some non-interest income sources, like investment banking and trading activities, can carry higher risks. Before the 2008 crisis, complex securitization products generated fee income but were also a source of systemic risk.
Economic sensitivity: The stability of fee income is not guaranteed and can be sensitive to economic conditions. For instance, investment banking fees might decline during a recession, and consumer spending fees may drop during economic hardship.
Regulatory pressure: Governments and regulators are increasing oversight on what they consider "junk fees." Recent regulations have sought to reduce certain fees charged to consumers, which could impact a bank's bottom line.
Competition and diversification: While diversifying income streams can benefit a bank, research shows mixed results on the direct impact of non-interest income on profitability, with outcomes varying between developed and developing economies. Intense competition among banks, financial technology (fintech) firms, and digital banks can also pressure fee income by driving costs down for consumers.
Conclusion
Post-2008 regulations led to higher capital requirements and lower leverage, making banks safer in some ways. Simultaneously, the pursuit of fee income has allowed for diversification away from traditional interest income, adding another layer of stability. However, the move toward fee-based models has not eliminated risk entirely, as some fee sources can be volatile or face regulatory scrutiny. Therefore, while banks are certainly more resilient than they were in 2008 due to regulatory changes and revenue diversification, it is more accurate to describe them as having a more balanced and nuanced financial structure, rather than simply being "more sound" due to user fees.
If BRICS GDP PPP is better than the G7 does their low debt to GDP play a role in this?
(ed not: answer should be yes and it was)
Yes, the BRICS countries (including new members) surpassing the G7 in combined GDP measured by Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is a reflection of their massive populations, faster growth rates, and, to a degree, their generally lower government debt-to-GDP ratios, which provide greater fiscal flexibility for future growth.
Role of Low Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Fiscal Stimulus Capability: The G7 nations, on average, have significantly higher debt-to-GDP ratios (often over 100%) compared to many BRICS nations. Lower debt levels (like Russia's 20% or India's 84%, compared to Japan's 266% or the U.S.'s ~125% today) mean BRICS governments have more "fiscal space" to provide economic stimulus or invest in infrastructure during a crisis without immediately triggering investor alarm or a debt crisis.
Reduced Burden of Debt Servicing: A lower debt burden means a smaller portion of the government's budget is consumed by interest payments. This allows for greater government spending on productive investments like infrastructure, education, and technology, which are key drivers of long-term economic growth that contributes to GDP (PPP).
Economic Stability Signal: While not the sole factor, a lower debt-to-GDP ratio can signal greater economic stability, potentially attracting investment and fostering confidence in the local economy, which supports the higher output reflected in PPP metrics.
Other Major Factors in BRICS GDP (PPP) Growth
Population Size: The sheer scale of the BRICS+ population (over 40% of the world's population, with China and India being the most populous nations) is a primary driver of their massive collective GDP (PPP). PPP adjusts for the local cost of living and domestic goods and services, giving a larger weight to economies with huge domestic production and consumption bases.
Rapid Industrialization and Growth Rates: Many BRICS countries, particularly China and India, have experienced rapid industrialization and higher sustained economic growth rates (often two or three times higher than the G7 average in recent years) over the past few decades.
Natural Resources and Trade: The BRICS+ group is rich in natural resources, which gives them significant influence in global supply chains and commodities markets, further boosting their economic output.
In essence, the BRICS' more favorable average debt positions compared to the G7 provide a solid macroeconomic foundation that complements their rapid growth, large populations, and industrial expansion, all of which contribute to their leading share of global GDP (PPP)
What is the current state of stock shorting compared to 1999?
(ed note; how much cheating is going on)
Significant changes in regulation and technology have transformed stock shorting since 1999. A major shift occurred with the elimination of the "uptick rule" in 2007 and its replacement by a more limited "alternative uptick rule" in 2010. The rise of meme stocks and retail investor coordination has also created new risks for institutional short sellers, as highlighted by the GameStop event.
Regulatory changes
The Uptick Rule: In 1999, the SEC's Uptick Rule was in effect. It generally prohibited investors from shorting a stock unless the previous trade was at a higher price, a measure intended to prevent aggressive short selling from exacerbating a market decline.
Rule 201: The SEC repealed the original Uptick Rule in 2007, and later, following the 2008 financial crisis, introduced Rule 201. This new "alternative uptick rule" is less restrictive, only coming into play for stocks that have declined by 10% or more during a single trading day.
Transparency: Regulators in various jurisdictions have increased transparency requirements. The SEC mandates regular reporting of short positions by institutional investors.
Technological advancements
High-frequency trading (HFT): The use of advanced algorithms and HFT has transformed trading, allowing for lightning-fast execution of short-selling orders. The prevalence of HFT is a major contrast to the trading landscape of 1999.
Online and mobile trading: Widespread online brokerage and the emergence of mobile apps have democratized stock trading, making it easier for retail investors to participate in short squeezes.
Outsourcing regulatory risk: Complex regulations have led some firms to use alternative instruments like swaps to gain short exposure. The swap provider handles the regulatory risk, allowing the buy-side firm to get short exposure via a long sell order.
Shift in market dynamics
Meme stock phenomenon: The rise of social media platforms like Reddit has enabled retail investors to coordinate and target heavily shorted stocks, causing major short squeezes and inflicting significant losses on institutional short sellers. This is a new risk that was non-existent in 1999.
Market volatility: In 1999, tech optimism was high, but the market was on the precipice of the dot-com bubble burst. Today, while some draw comparisons, current conditions are influenced by new factors, such as higher US debt loads and different monetary policies