So I watched a bit of Marcon's speech and he touched on this...
Yes, data suggests there are more active armed conflicts now than in recent decades, reaching post-WWII highs, though traditional state-vs-state wars are fewer, replaced by complex internal conflicts with many actors and external involvement, leading to longer, messier wars and high civilian impact, notes this UN article, this Our World in Data article,
this Phys.org article, and this Al Jazeera article. The nature of conflict has shifted, with more groups involved in each, often involving foreign powers, making resolution harder.
and I watched a bit about using A.I. in the trenches, and how the horizontal transfer of technology affects business.
Macron noted that they need to involve China in the EU for investment opportunities, like I did in the neutral zone.
So what I saw at Davos this year is one of the first times when everyone was excited to be there, had plenty t say, at a time when economies are doing well because jobs are everywhere.
I think everyone is excited about A.I. and how it enhances their business.
Trump was there being an Imperialist saying the doom and gloomers of the apocalypse are redundant and Imperialism is alive and well.
He is trying to build a trading block to rival the Europe Asia trading block that is taking shape as BRICS gains momentum and China displays its ability that no other country is able to match in automotive design, robotics, structural engineering and so many other fields.
And innovation seen especially in the automotive industry.
Even if the products they are selling would appeal to high income earners more than anyone else given the state of affairs of the G7 where the middle class has been all but destroyed by high rents and expensive housing in general.
So it took us a fair amount of work in the last year to get people on track like this and it has paid off in a lot of ways A.I. and some amazing car ideas, and robotics, with some countries like Russia doing extremely well on the quality of life scale. China as well.
America is making progress in clearing the swamp but they have a long ways to go.
Europe is doing better they got a lot of attention from us at the top, and some economic help and advice on borders and help managing information to some extent.
All in all from a strictly earthly perspective things are going well for the richer countries and for BRICS in general.
How is the economy doing deep mind?
Key Insights
- Resilience Amid Headwinds: The global economy has shown surprising resilience to multiple shocks in the 2020s, including aggressive interest rate hikes and trade tensions. However, this resilience masks underlying weaknesses, and growth is settling on a lower path than the pre-pandemic average of 3.2%.
- Divergent Recoveries: There is a significant divergence in performance across countries. Advanced economies have generally recovered robustly, while more than a quarter of emerging market and developing economies still have per capita incomes below pre-pandemic levels.
- Inflation is Easing: Global inflation is projected to continue its decline, offering some relief. However, high prices still erode real incomes for many low-income households, and core inflation remains persistent in some economies like the US.
- Job Market Stability (Surface Level): The global unemployment rate is expected to remain stable. Yet, this stability hides significant job quality deficits, with a large "jobs gap" of those who want work but cannot access it, and persistent informality in many regions.
- Structural Challenges: The medium-term outlook is clouded by ongoing risks, including rising public debt burdens, an aging global population, increased protectionism, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts, which are all shaping investment decisions and supply chains. The acceleration of AI investment offers a potential upside for productivity, but also poses risks of market volatility and job displacement in certain sectors.