Some house prices went up...

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Wajahat Gilani

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Aug 30, 2011, 10:21:35 AM8/30/11
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Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 6, 2011, 6:52:54 PM9/6/11
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another big up-day for the market tomorrow.
 
interim market bottom has been reached.
 
New highs coming.
 
USD/JPY bottom solidifying as expected
 

Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 7, 2011, 11:45:45 AM9/7/11
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just so i absolve myself of any backbiting:
 
Tarab and I were chatting about fundamental market forces (he was teaching me a few things) and I was impressed and then joked about how people who live and die by fundamentals (like Waj and other academics) know how everything actually works but have just as much difficulty making money as anyone else. They also minimize the true power of TA.
 
This was a light-hearted and unsubstantiated comment, and is more a compliment to Waj's knowledge than a shot at anyone. Plus, Im sure Waj has made more money in finance than Ill ever make in my lifetime.
 

Wajahat Gilani

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Sep 7, 2011, 11:59:53 AM9/7/11
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1) i don't live and die by fundamentals, i'm a quant by training, but in practice (ABS,CDOs) i saw its deficiencies and limitations, my point always is you need to incorporate fundamentals in all types of analysis
2) my disagreement with TA is that its a short-term tool for liquid markets and is not well suited for long-term trend analysis




From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 11:45 AM
Subject: RE: Some house prices went up...

Wajahat Gilani

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Sep 7, 2011, 12:01:26 PM9/7/11
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and 3) i'm a phd and have no money now, and probably will not go back to the quant world (maybe hedge fund and PE is up in the air) because a lot of the products are not permissible, so call me over when you swim in your money bin like scrooge mcduck


From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 11:45 AM
Subject: RE: Some house prices went up...

Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 7, 2011, 12:43:36 PM9/7/11
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btw, mashaa Allah about the PHD that's awesome.
 
And it was a non-serious comment.
 
And I have no money to swim in and if I did I wouldnt swim in it.
 
We should all join forces and open a no leverage and no interest hedge fund.
 
We have enough talent to offer a one of a kind investment to the community.
 

Date: Wed, 7 Sep 2011 09:01:26 -0700
From: wajg...@yahoo.com
Subject: Re: Some house prices went up...

Wajahat Gilani

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Sep 7, 2011, 12:58:30 PM9/7/11
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clarification, i'm working towards my Phd, not one yet (i'm scared that i won't be able to do it).  and the investment club provides a platform for budding entrepreneurs if you have any strategies, but for non-stock related stuff

Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 12:43 PM

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Sep 7, 2011, 4:26:58 PM9/7/11
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another amazing call izzy....you're the man.

yursil

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Sep 9, 2011, 3:12:46 PM9/9/11
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comeon guys what the heck.  let it go somewhere.

Ilyas

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Sep 9, 2011, 4:56:21 PM9/9/11
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Lol

Wajahat Gilani

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Sep 10, 2011, 10:52:08 AM9/10/11
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Tarab, I just saw Islam and he felt from my email that I felt insulted, I wasnt, my money bin was a joke that he didn't get cuz he's a fob and didnt watch duck tales growing up.  Just wanted to clear that up in case u also r a fob that didn't watch duck tales growing up.

Sent from my iPhone

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Sep 10, 2011, 10:53:55 AM9/10/11
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haha..no I'm not a fob

On Sep 10, 2011 10:52 AM, "Wajahat Gilani" <wajg...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Tarab, I just saw Islam and he felt from my email that I felt insulted, I wasnt, my money bin was a joke that he didn't get cuz he's a fob and didnt watch duck tales growing up. Just wanted to clear that up in case u also r a fob that didn't watch duck tales growing up.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Sep 7, 2011, at 12:01 PM, Wajahat Gilani <wajg...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>> and 3) i'm a phd and have no money now, and probably will not go back to the quant world (maybe hedge fund and PE is up in the air) because a lot of the products are not permissible, so call me over when you swim in your money bin like scrooge mcduck
>>
>> From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
>> To: market-...@googlegroups.com
>> Sent: Wednesday, September 7, 2011 11:45 AM
>> Subject: RE: Some house prices went up...
>>
>> just so i absolve myself of any backbiting:
>>
>> Tarab and I were chatting about fundamental market forces (he was teaching me a few things) and I was impressed and then joked about how people who live and die by fundamentals (like Waj and other academics) know how everything actually works but have just as much difficulty making money as anyone else. They also minimize the true power of TA.
>>
>> This was a light-hearted and unsubstantiated comment, and is more a compliment to Waj's knowledge than a shot at anyone. Plus, Im sure Waj has made more money in finance than Ill ever make in my lifetime.
>>

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Sep 10, 2011, 11:03:53 AM9/10/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com, Wajahat Gilani

yursil

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Sep 10, 2011, 11:47:00 AM9/10/11
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Batakh kahaniyan!

On Saturday, September 10, 2011, S. Jibreel Hussain <s.jibree...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I grew up watching duck tales bro.....
>
> Duck Tales Intro - Hindi <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTE7Dd2QFtQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player>

yursil

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Sep 10, 2011, 12:07:31 PM9/10/11
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Doesn't have the same ring to it


On Saturday, September 10, 2011, yursil <yur...@gmail.com> wrote:
> Batakh kahaniyan!
>
> On Saturday, September 10, 2011, S. Jibreel Hussain <s.jibree...@gmail.com> wrote:
>> I grew up watching duck tales bro.....
>>
>> Duck Tales Intro - Hindi <Duck Tales Intro - Hindi <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTE7Dd2QFtQ&feature=youtube_gdata_player>>

Wajahat Gilani

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Sep 10, 2011, 1:37:32 PM9/10/11
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Is nothing sacred to Indians, first superman now this!

Sent from my iPhone

Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 13, 2011, 7:50:05 AM9/13/11
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Big up day coming soon in Dow.
 
Im talking mega-up like 400-500 points.

Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 20, 2011, 11:26:50 AM9/20/11
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bullish posture confirmed
 
New highs coming
 

From: islam_e...@hotmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Dow
Date: Tue, 13 Sep 2011 07:50:05 -0400

yursil

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Sep 22, 2011, 12:43:37 PM9/22/11
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Islam Elfayoumi

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Sep 22, 2011, 1:07:09 PM9/22/11
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yes
 

Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 12:43:37 -0400
Subject: Re: Dow
From: yur...@gmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com

Islam Elfayoumi

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Oct 7, 2011, 9:47:59 AM10/7/11
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there is no volume on the H&S left shoulder and this is the second consecutive H&S pattern readily visible on the chart so it should be faded.

I hope everyone is long market cuz 13,000 is coming.
 
Subject: RE: Dow
Date: Thu, 22 Sep 2011 13:07:09 -0400

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 11:23:42 AM10/27/11
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good call islam.... there will always be skeptics but no one can navigate a market like some one good at technical analysis. 

I love how islam answered this question....a simple "yes"

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 11:34:08 AM10/27/11
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but that was in Sep?  that applied for a month out?


From: S. Jibreel Hussain <s.jibree...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 11:23 AM
Subject: RE: Dow

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:23:57 PM10/27/11
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the market has rallied roughly 2000 points since then.....did you expect that to happen in one day? 

to be clear his call was new highs a comin.....and he wasn't deterred by the scary drop when yursil asked "will it make up for this?"

haha....what more do you want?

Ahmed Naiem

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:25:28 PM10/27/11
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he wants to back test it

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:30:35 PM10/27/11
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ok, i just assumed it was a week to week thing
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 12:23 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

yursil

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:33:35 PM10/27/11
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TA is about the short term, unless its about the long term

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:33:01 PM10/27/11
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i've given up on backtesting, like you've given up on players being happy after winning


From: Ahmed Naiem <ahmed...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 12:25 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:43:23 PM10/27/11
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we have never said ta is for short term only......

it can be used to make calls such as aapl to touch 407 in the next 24 hours as well as dow to touch 1,000 in 2016.

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:47:09 PM10/27/11
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It can even be used it to call other social events like protests in the streets of the US which I have called.

yursil

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:55:37 PM10/27/11
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exactly, its for short term unless its for the long term

yursil

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Oct 27, 2011, 12:56:08 PM10/27/11
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you can switch that around to being for the long term rather than the
short term...

yursil

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:00:09 PM10/27/11
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the key factor is, do we find out when the prediction is made for how
long it applies for?

Islam Elfayoumi

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:05:23 PM10/27/11
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thanks

bullish posture continues until new highs are hit


Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2011 11:23:42 -0400
Subject: RE: Dow
From: s.jibree...@gmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:06:48 PM10/27/11
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that's the million dollar question in TA, Fundamentals, and Quant modeling...
the damn timing


From: yursil <yur...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 1:00 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Islam Elfayoumi

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:15:44 PM10/27/11
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knowing the overall posture of the market or the "trend" if you will is like gold.

It's not a specific call - it's even better for a trader, cuz all of his trades can be screened against that backdrop, making them more successful and profitable.

Calling new highs in the DOW is not a trade - but it allows me to feel confident scooping up stuff when everyone is running for the hills. In hindsight, everyone will say they shouldve seen it coming and post some article explaining the fundamental forces behind that movement - but they will have made no money.

You couldve traded gold, or euro, or blue chips or anything that correlates with the DOW based on that call.

> Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2011 13:00:09 -0400

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:22:56 PM10/27/11
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you guys are confusing market analysis with trade signals.

trade signal looks like this

eurusd  long target 1.43 stop 1.4050....I actually like to add timing to mine but most don't....but timing is also inherent in the call ie euro will hit 1.43 before 1.4050.

market analysis looks like this

dow is headed towards 1000 and oil towards $4 per barrel.   exact time isn't needed at all.  you use rallies to get short and crashes to take profits.

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:26:08 PM10/27/11
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and if aren't a trader you use rallies to liquidate your assets and hold cash.

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:30:01 PM10/27/11
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Islam, its really no different than the fundamental guys.  U look at trends, they look at, for instance, the Europe crisis, except in their case they had to make a call of whether it will or won't be fixed, those that were right will be, for the short term, rewarded. 

But real pros like Buffet don't look at the market for its short-term swings, he instead will look at the economics of an industry and then decide which firms are best suited to capture the best of the market share.  When the market goes down, they use it as an opportunity to get more of the stocks they like, when the market goes up, like today, they look to unload the stocks that they would like to exit.  Everything else to them is white-noise. 

If you want to focus investments in the market, I would recommend this approach, and if you get large enough you can become an Active investor like Icahn and they guys from Cerberus.

From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 1:15 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

Wajahat Gilani

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Oct 27, 2011, 1:31:29 PM10/27/11
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I think that states it best

Sent: Thursday, October 27, 2011 1:26 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

Islam Elfayoumi

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Oct 28, 2011, 7:03:00 AM10/28/11
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btw, due to the recent run-up and "good news" i am out of the market until things settle down. Tough to read this right now. We could get a violent pull back.


Date: Thu, 27 Oct 2011 12:43:23 -0400
Subject: Re: Dow
From: s.jibree...@gmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:23:57 PM11/1/11
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another excellent call islam....hope the sceptics are taking notes....

let us know when you're getting back in.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:39:31 PM11/1/11
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if anyone is skeptical, its not about direction, its about timing

backtesting....that was for naiem
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:23 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:41:12 PM11/1/11
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I don't understand how much better the timing can be....juxtapose these emails to the dow chart....that might help

yursil

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:48:34 PM11/1/11
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the problem is the original call was for 13000

yursil

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:49:37 PM11/1/11
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actually it was DOW should break 13,000 soon.

august 13th

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 5:56:40 PM11/1/11
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by timing, the skeptics, if there are any, would say making a call and giving a time frame, i.e. 30 days, like the last one Islam called that coincided with the "good news"

statistical significance....love you naiem
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 5:41 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Ahmed Naiem

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:01:01 PM11/1/11
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waj just make sure you don't get backtested this friday during football nh

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:04:14 PM11/1/11
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that sounds very gay in that context...i'm hoping your receivers start fighting for the ball, that'll be the chink in u'r armor

From: Ahmed Naiem <ahmed...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 6:01 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:07:33 PM11/1/11
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and it still is and more

13000 wont happen overnight

i have given my time frames before

markets dont move in one direction

> Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 17:48:34 -0400

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:09:04 PM11/1/11
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that was very good and very original


Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 18:01:01 -0400
Subject: Re: Dow
From: ahmed...@gmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:10:08 PM11/1/11
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you mean "so nice and so cool"

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:11:36 PM11/1/11
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and very gay....i hope kareem will be there...i want to flex my muscles..


From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 6:09 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

Ilyas

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:13:43 PM11/1/11
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Pause

Rajab Abbassi

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:15:13 PM11/1/11
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Karim would love it if you flexed your muscles while being backtested.  That's tight!

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:19:38 PM11/1/11
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rewind:

and very gay....i hope kareem will be there....or else i'm going to be sacking rajab all night....

i tried, backtesting is just very gay on the football field


From: Rajab Abbassi <rajaba...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 6:15 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

yursil

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:19:42 PM11/1/11
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of course...

whats your timetable for 13000.. your last 13000 call was just
suffixed with 'soon'

On Tue, Nov 1, 2011 at 6:07 PM, Islam Elfayoumi

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:27:23 PM11/1/11
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why do you need a timetable....had you longed at 10500 and then sold all at 12200, you would have been sitting pretty fight now at 11600.....ready for the next buying opp.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:27:31 PM11/1/11
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30 days works for me


From: yursil <yur...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:31:38 PM11/1/11
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it's much better than aapl will go up a steve jobs gives way to younger talent.....you're getting actual entry and exit signals.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 6:33:39 PM11/1/11
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go down, but yes, that's actually the one thing TA has on event driven strategies..narrow time frames

Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 6:31 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

yursil

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:10:38 PM11/1/11
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I need timetables because 13,000 hasn't happened yet... If it's going to happen soon I will stay in the market

yursil

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:11:20 PM11/1/11
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In other words if it is a fact there's no reason to play every swing

Rajab Abbassi

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:11:41 PM11/1/11
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Jibreel thinks it would have hit 13,000 already but for the turmoil in Greece.  :-)

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:29:30 PM11/1/11
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haha good one rajab.....these lousy ows people are holding the market down.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:49:51 PM11/1/11
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Hahahahah, what do the ows guys have anything to with Greece's debt and defaults, one can take down european banks and the other can't even get a microphone, poor guys



Sent from my iPhone

Ilyas

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Nov 1, 2011, 7:58:11 PM11/1/11
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Social mood dude, social mood...

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 1, 2011, 8:04:42 PM11/1/11
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Yea but no one cares about what the people r doing, it's about the insolvency of greece's banks..

Sent from my iPhone

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 11:35:26 AM11/3/11
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tarab/islam, u'r 12,000 prediction is about 40 points away....


From: Ilyas <andal...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 1, 2011 7:58 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 3, 2011, 11:56:06 AM11/3/11
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it's 13000...and it's islam's....I'm just watching in admiration.

I don't follow stocks closely....my call is dow below 1,000 in 2015/2016.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:04:18 PM11/3/11
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i'm admiring your admiration
i couldn't begin to imagine that, would the civilized world even exist if that happened
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 11:56 AM
Subject: Re: Dow

yursil

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:13:07 PM11/3/11
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im just waiting for 13000 so i can go back to cash :)

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:15:09 PM11/3/11
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islam, what timeframe did u give for 13,000, i'll buy the dow etf with my investment club money and give all the profits from it to a charity of your choice (from a shariah point of view we can't hold the dow etf..)

Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 12:13 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

yursil

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:17:31 PM11/3/11
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i give it about the time that the greeks stop deciding to write the next odyssey with their drama financial markets and get back to work.

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:50:56 PM11/3/11
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and those darn ows folks leave.

Ilyas

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Nov 3, 2011, 12:58:22 PM11/3/11
to Market Musings
To riff off of a line Salim wrote earlier about the NBA lockout;
You two probably would have told Bani Israil to stop harrassing their
boss and get back to pyramid building.

On Nov 3, 12:50 pm, "S. Jibreel Hussain" <s.jibreel.huss...@gmail.com>
wrote:

yursil

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Nov 3, 2011, 1:01:55 PM11/3/11
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nah man.. first off with the ows folks, there is no pyramid to build.  they are the ones not good enough to build pyramids

and as fro the greeks...  i just need them to stop waxing around poetically ... shall we pay back, or shall we not... who cares, let us now wrestle with Zeus!

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 1:15:03 PM11/3/11
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ows will end up saving the financial system from itself

Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 12:50 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 1:16:18 PM11/3/11
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA, i'm going to use that at work


From: Ilyas <andal...@gmail.com>
To: Market Musings <market-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 12:58 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Ahmed Naiem

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Nov 3, 2011, 1:20:07 PM11/3/11
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I am usually on the side of ownership. However I think they're going over board now and the sad part is the players will probably cave soon.

S. Jibreel

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Nov 3, 2011, 1:31:35 PM11/3/11
to Market Musings
That was sarcasm as was Rajab's earlier email when he said Jibreel
thinks dow would have already hit 13,000 if it wasn't for the greek
riots.

I've said it a billion times already on this list and will say it
again. The theory is as follows:

Markets going down don't cause riots nor riots in the streets cause
markets to go down. Social mood is the cause of both of those
events. That's why event driven trading can't work. Whatever event
you see out there is already reflected in the market prices.

So when I say the market will do such and such when such and such
event occurs is ALWAYS a sarcastic statement.

Here's the controversial part:

Simulataneous protests and riots across the US, Greece, Middle East,
Spain, London, etc aren't surprising or something to be analyzed.
They're the fulfillment of the bear market analysis which is the
negative social mood creates factionalism ("us vs them"). Everyone
has picked their first targets for their anger (banks for the US,
austerity for the greeks, Hosni for the Egyptians, etc) but it won't
stop there. In bear markets, factions get smaller and smaller from
"the world to the nation to the ethnic, religious, regional or sexual
group to the city or feudal estate to the family to the
individual" (quoted from robert prechter). It stops at some point
along that when the social mood turns back to positive. For example,
in pre Islamic Mecca it got down to tribe.


Just a theory.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 2:13:01 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH, ok fine, fair enough, that is a logical argument on the street,

but let me explain how event strategies work, and they do work because some of the biggest funds are very successful with them.  the Greek sovereign and bank bonds have cds's associated with them, the spreads of those cds's widen or tighten with whatever the consensus is about failure.  if one of them default..., someone gets a huge pay day, if they don't, and get restructured, they may or may not depending on the restructure.

now there is a correlation between the stock market and the cds market...ever since 2008 they've been virtually correlated, originally the stock market lagged, but now its almost simultaneous (although high freq strategies still expose arbitrage situations...)

so, when we talk "event", we literally mean an actual event has to take place for a payout to happen...which does affect in some way the stock market

but, u'r point of view is a valid one, although the minority, but they do argue that cds market is a factor that's already instantaneously built into the price, and that when an event is triggered, the market already anticipated it...the last part in my opinion is just not possible


From: S. Jibreel <s.jibree...@gmail.com>
To: Market Musings <market-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 1:31 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 2:40:53 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
this is why we're going to beat union, juggernauts are for the people, while union represent the fat-cat owners, bankers and politicians

power to the people!!!


From: Ahmed Naiem <ahmed...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 1:20 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 3, 2011, 3:09:39 PM11/3/11
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ur both right for the average investor/trader event strategies will never work because the arbitrage window is extremely small in modern markets


Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2011 11:13:01 -0700
From: wajg...@yahoo.com
Subject: Re: Dow
To: market-...@googlegroups.com

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 3:12:13 PM11/3/11
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Islam, small investors can do M&A events



From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 3:09 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

Rajab Abbassi

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Nov 3, 2011, 3:26:56 PM11/3/11
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Not much profit to be had in merger arbitrage for a small investor.  That's a lazy and inefficient strategy.  Works for conservative companies with cash on hand and a dedicated staff.

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 3, 2011, 3:49:13 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
the people usually lose


Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2011 11:40:53 -0700

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 3:59:38 PM11/3/11
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I couldn't comment on for a small investor but small hedgefunds with 2-3 members, put up pretty good and consistent returns


From: Rajab Abbassi <rajaba...@gmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 3:26 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Rajab Abbassi

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Nov 3, 2011, 4:00:51 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
I thought it was you who said "small investors can do M&A events."  Maybe I misread.  That's what I was responding to.

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 4:03:17 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
although, small investors can do it, I can't comment on the profit margins for small investors, but i can comment on the returns of small hedge funds that do it.  you brought up the profit angle

Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 4:00 PM
Subject: Re: Dow

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 4:39:09 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
we are the 99% and we will have justice..

dow over 12..


From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Thursday, November 3, 2011 3:49 PM
Subject: RE: Dow

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 3, 2011, 7:16:10 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
For the Investor
-------------------

New highs in the DOW are coming, iA. Soon is relative based on your time-frame. This is a long term call.

I expect new market highs by mid to late 2012, just before the election, as I have stated many times.

After Obama wins his second term, the market will finally begin a long bear market that will truly highlight how sick our economy really is.

I cannot speculate yet as to how deep this bear market will take us - let's just say DOW 4000 is a conservative call.


For the Trader
-----------------

The above information should help you profit nicely during the next year as you position yourself with a market bullish bias.

As for this most recent October rally, it should retrace almost entirely. I expect DOW down to 10,800 or less, before it continues its move higher as outlined above.



Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 3, 2011, 7:21:20 PM11/3/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
the charity of my choice is

WAFA House


From: islam_e...@hotmail.com
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Subject: DOW Outlook
Date: Thu, 3 Nov 2011 19:16:10 -0400

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 3, 2011, 7:31:49 PM11/3/11
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Good choice, I'm goin to let dow go below 12 first

Sent from my iPhone

S. Jibreel Hussain

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Nov 4, 2011, 6:56:53 PM11/4/11
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I think the investor should be told to liquidate positions and hold cash.  It's not worth it to risk the huge downtrend for another 1000 points up.

So yursil I would move to cash now whether or not the dow hits 13,000.

I would only be trading these days if I was an aggressive trader.

Eid Mubarak everybody!

andrew lijoi

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Nov 5, 2011, 7:11:49 AM11/5/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com

Yes Eid Mubarak

S. Jibreel

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Nov 8, 2011, 10:26:44 AM11/8/11
to Market Musings
Here's an interesting tweet from a trader on the euro:

$EURUSD: Trading by highs of the day and continues to defy gravity and
logic with all of the negative press in the Eurozone.

Islam Elfayoumi

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Nov 8, 2011, 10:41:44 AM11/8/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
1000+ pip drop in EURO to start this week, iA.
 
> Date: Tue, 8 Nov 2011 07:26:44 -0800

> Subject: Re: Dow
> From: s.jibree...@gmail.com
> To: market-...@googlegroups.com
>

Wajahat Gilani

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Nov 9, 2011, 4:13:05 PM11/9/11
to market-...@googlegroups.com
This is why fundamental guys are investors more than traders, did they not realize Italy has problems, of course they did, but brokerages and
Investment Banks need vol to make easy money.....its all a house of cards...




From: Islam Elfayoumi <islam_e...@hotmail.com>
To: market-...@googlegroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, November 8, 2011 10:41 AM
Subject: RE: Dow
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