At 10:37 AM -0300 5/8/14, John Klymko wrote:
>Given that Painted Lady isn't in Ontario yet, and that the photographed
>individual does appear quite fresh, I'm leaning toward it being a butterfly
>that overwintered here or at least nearby. Mind you, there were just six
>reports of the species last year.
A migrant butterfly need not show a great deal of wear and tear,
John. I've seen tagged Monarchs that had flown long distances (and
had been handled!) that did not show significant wing damage or wear.
To me, the rarity of this species last year (six reports for the
entire region!) really argues against an overwintering individual.
Given that the lifetime mortality rate of medium-size Nymphalid
butterflies is routinely greater than 95%, and often approaches 99%
(or higher!), the tiny chance that an unseen very rare (but gravid)
female from last year laid an egg that managed to survive to
adulthood this year is so slim as to be non-existant. It's not
impossible but highly improbable. In short, you'll not convince me
that it isn't a migrant based on its apparent freshness!