The middle east
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president of the Council on Foreign Relations. In it he asserts that:
- A "new" middle east will emerge which, contrary to hopes of a
"Europe-like middle east that is peaceful, prosperous and democratic,"
is likely to "cause great harm to itself and the world."
- Following the fall of Communism, the US had "unprecedented influence"
in the mideast, but this has been undermined by the invasion of Iraq.
In future, the US will continue to have "more influence than any
outside power, but its influenced will be reduced from what it once
was." Washington will increasingly be challenged by the EU, China, and
Russia.
- There will be no viable Israeli-Palestinian peace process possible
for the forseeable future, but the US should attempt to push one
forward anyway.
- Iraq will at best "remain messy for years to come" and Iran will
become one of two dominant powers in the region, the other being
Israel.
- The price of oil will remain high
- "Militias ... will emerge throughout the region wherever there is a
perceived or actual deficit of state authority and capacity."
- The emergence of democracy will not pacify the region.
Haass claims that all this (and more) is not reason for fatalism. No,
it is merely reason for "great concern." And the way to address that
concern is to eschew an "over-reliance on military force" and employ
more diplomacy, along with unspecified "actions that reform schools,
promote economic liberalisation, encourage Arab and Muslim authorities
to speak out in ways that delegitimize terrorism and shame its
supporters, and addresss grievances that motivate young men and women
to take up terrorism." Sorry to resort to fatalism, but will any of
this be enough?
<b>Haas will will answer questions in a live online debate this Friday,
October 20, beginning at 10:30 am, EST. </b>
Post your questions now at hyperlink{www.ft.com/haass}
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Silent Partners
The coming Israeli-Saudi alliance
by Gregory Levey
Excerpt:
"...[I]n the near future, Saudi Arabia may end up being one of Israel's
most important--albeit secret--allies. Today, the interests of the
Israeli and Saudi governments are so aligned that they may have little
choice but to work together. What's more, because the United States
currently enjoys an unprecedented level of trust from both states, if
it capitalizes on this situation, this convergence of interests could
actually bring some major positive changes to the region. In fact, it
may already be doing so.
"The Israeli paper Yediot Ahronot recently reported that Jordan had
hosted a secret nighttime meeting between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert,
(accompanied by the head of Israel's Mossad) and a member of the Saudi
Royal Family. Inevitably, the Jordanians, the Israelis, and the Saudis
all denied it. When I asked a former colleague of mine in the Israeli
government about the meeting, I got a cagey and noncommittal response
with just a hint that there might be some substance to it. Olmert
himself has been far less circumspect: Pressed by an Israeli radio
station on the issue, he said, "We have decided that, on this subject,
I am going to deliver a denial, but you don't have to believe it. On
other matters, believe all my denials." "
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w061016&s=levey102006
(Subscription probably required--send me email if you can't view the
article)
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It has been known for some time that Mohammed Al Durrah may not have
been killed by Israelis. This academic has seen French footage of the
scene at Netzarim Junction 6 years ago and concluded that he was not
killed at all, that the reporters knew it, and they participated in a
hoax.
"On October 31, 2003, at the studios of France2 in Jerusalem in the
company of Charles Enderlin and his Israeli cameraman, I saw the raw
footage of Al Durah from the only Palestinian cameraman who actually
captured the scene on film--footage France2 still refuses to release
for public examination. I was floored. The tapes feature a long
succession of obviously faked injuries; brutal, hasty evacuation
scenes; and people ducking for cover while others stand around. One
fellow grabbed his leg in agony, then, upon seeing that no one would
come to carry him away, walked away without a limp. It was stunning.
That was no cameraman's conspiracy: It was everyone--a public secret
about which news consumers had no clue."
Camera Obscura
How French TV fudged the death of Mohammed Al Durah.
by Richard Landes
http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=w061016&s=landes101706
I'll email anyone the article who can't read it online.
Watch the footage yourself here:
http://www.seconddraft.org/selections.php?theme=pallywood