Re: Our new Rust Belt poll + messaging

[Judy Cunningham]

THIS IS FROM RUSTBELT RISING REGARDING CURRENT POLLS ON HARRIS, AND WHAT MESSAGING AND TOPICS WORKS TO GET DEMS VOTING.  OUR STRONGEST CASE IS ABORTION AND LUCKILY HARRIS DOES BETTER ON THAT THAN BIDEN.

Thank you for joining us today for our poll briefing! 

Civiqs and Rust Belt Rising's poll consists of 1,582 likely voters was conducted from Saturday to Tuesday (July 13-16): 

· Overall battleground results: 46% Trump, 45% Harris, 4% Kennedy, 4% unsure

· Michigan (532 respondents): 46% Harris, 46% Trump, 5% Kennedy, 4% unsure

· Pennsylvania (536): 46% Trump, 44% Harris, 5% Kennedy, 5% unsure

· Wisconsin (514): 48% Harris, 48% Harris, 3% unsure, 2% Kennedy

Here is our messaging coming out of the poll. 

Here is today's recording. 

Sign up here to get the invites for our briefings with other pollsters on messaging takeaways through the election. The first one will be next Wednesday, July 31st, at 2 ET/1CT with Aaron Strauss on content that's working. Register here. 

Key toplines from the poll:

1. Among several arguments we tested, Democrats' strongest cases are on abortion, Medicare reducing prescription drug prices ("inhalers, insulin, other medicines"), and fixing roads and bridges, among all the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act does. Voters bought those specifics on how we're making people's lives better to be good and true more than generalities of us as fighting for working people, against inflation and corporate greed, lowering costs, etc. This is not to say we shouldn't keep moving the needle on those brandings, but we looked for what Democrats can say right now that voters find most credible. 
2. We see the strongest agreement with the Democrats' message on abortion. We find that women simply being able to make their own decisions without government and male politicians–and having freedom–does best. Adding partisan language decreases support, as well as assigning motivation for Republicans' actions and adding the threat of IVF and contraception. Women agreed more with the health risks argument (they know the reality) than men. This isn't to say we should never talk about these other pieces but all independents needed for agreement was stating who should have the freedom of control over these decisions.  
3. Groceries dominate people's costs, as President Biden improved gas prices as a concern. For young people, housing rivals groceries as their crucial cost.   
4. You can see the specifics of the race inside. Vice President Harris ran ahead of President Biden by pulling in some unsure or current 3rd party supporters to make the race essentially a tie. 
5. Please read and utilize our messaging from the survey here. 

Please let us know anything we can do to help as we all keep going forward to win! 

-- 

Paul Kendrick

Executive Director, Rust Belt Rising

202.415.8901

On Jul 22, 2024, at 4:06 PM, Paul Kendrick <pa...@rustbeltrising.com> wrote:

Thank you for joining us today for our poll briefing! 

Civiqs and Rust Belt Rising's poll consists of 1,582 likely voters was conducted from Saturday to Tuesday (July 13-16): 

· Overall battleground results: 46% Trump, 45% Harris, 4% Kennedy, 4% unsure

· Michigan (532 respondents): 46% Harris, 46% Trump, 5% Kennedy, 4% unsure

· Pennsylvania (536): 46% Trump, 44% Harris, 5% Kennedy, 5% unsure

· Wisconsin (514): 48% Harris, 48% Harris, 3% unsure, 2% Kennedy

Here is our messaging coming out of the poll. 

Here is today's recording. 

Sign up here to get the invites for our briefings with other pollsters on messaging takeaways through the election. The first one will be next Wednesday, July 31st, at 2 ET/1CT with Aaron Strauss on content that's working. Register here. 

Key toplines from the poll:

1. Among several arguments we tested, Democrats' strongest cases are on abortion, Medicare reducing prescription drug prices ("inhalers, insulin, other medicines"), and fixing roads and bridges, among all the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act does. Voters bought those specifics on how we're making people's lives better to be good and true more than generalities of us as fighting for working people, against inflation and corporate greed, lowering costs, etc. This is not to say we shouldn't keep moving the needle on those brandings, but we looked for what Democrats can say right now that voters find most credible. 
2. We see the strongest agreement with the Democrats' message on abortion. We find that women simply being able to make their own decisions without government and male politicians–and having freedom–does best. Adding partisan language decreases support, as well as assigning motivation for Republicans' actions and adding the threat of IVF and contraception. Women agreed more with the health risks argument (they know the reality) than men. This isn't to say we should never talk about these other pieces but all independents needed for agreement was stating who should have the freedom of control over these decisions.  
3. Groceries dominate people's costs, as President Biden improved gas prices as a concern. For young people, housing rivals groceries as their crucial cost.   
4. You can see the specifics of the race inside. Vice President Harris ran ahead of President Biden by pulling in some unsure or current 3rd party supporters to make the race essentially a tie. 
5. Please read and utilize our messaging from the survey here. 

Please let us know anything we can do to help as we all keep going forward to win! 

-- 

Paul Kendrick

Executive Director, Rust Belt Rising

202.415.8901

[Aaron Joseph]

Judy is this landline polling or do you know where I can see the methodology? 

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