France Consumption
Argelia Long
In 2024, activity is projected to remain subdued over the first half of the year, with growth in the first quarter estimated at 0.2%. However, the moderation of inflation and the easing of financial conditions expected in the second half of the year are projected to allow for a progressive recovery. Private consumption is expected to be the main driver for growth, as real wages bounce back while investment from both households and corporations is set to slow down. Net exports are set to have a slightly positive contribution to growth as exports gather momentum, notably in transport equipment. The deficit-reducing measures announced by the government for which sufficient detail has been disclosed have been taken into account in this forecast and are also set to weigh on economic growth. Overall, real GDP is forecast to grow by 0.7% in 2024.
In 2025, the economy is projected to keep gaining momentum on the back of looser financial conditions and lower inflation, with GDP expected to grow by 1.3%. This recovery is set to be driven by domestic demand, given the household purchasing power preserved over the previous years, growing real wages, and a still favourable labour market. Net exports are set to have a zero contribution to growth with strong exports growth offset by rising imports as household consumption increases. Investment from both households and corporations is projected to recover progressively. The government has announced significant expenditure savings, but these have not been taken into account in this forecast as insufficient details have been disclosed so far. Once specified and integrated, they could impact projected growth.
After peaking at 7.0% in the first quarter of 2023, HICP inflation decreased gradually to reach 4.2% in the fourth quarter, largely thanks to declining energy and commodity prices. It fell further to 3.0% in 2024-Q1, as the slowdown in consumer prices became widespread, notably given the pass-through of energy and commodity prices to industrial goods. The downward trend in inflation is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace given that wage increases are still set to feed services inflation. Thus, inflation is expected to average 2.5% in 2024, before slowing down to 2.0% in 2025.
The general government deficit rose to 5.5% of GDP in 2023, mainly due to sluggish tax revenues on the back of lacklustre growth and declining inflation. On the other hand, the interest burden on public debt declined by 0.2 pps., to 1.7% of GDP, as lower yields on inflation-indexed bonds compared to 2022 outweighed the effect of higher rates on new issues. Energy-related measures amounted to 0.9% of GDP.
For 2024, the deficit is set to decline to 5.3% of GDP. The subdued economic activity is expected to keep weighing on tax revenues, although these are expected to be more responsive to economic activity after the sizeable revenue shortfalls in 2023. By contrast, the introduction of the exceptional tax on energy producers and financial profits is estimated to increase revenue by 0.1 pps. of GDP. Thus, the revenue-to-GDP ratio would remain broadly stable, at around 52%. In turn, the expenditure-to-GDP ratio is set to decline by 0.5 pps. This drop would be mainly due to the withdrawal of most energy-related measures to 0.2% of GDP, and to 0.3% of GDP expenditure savings adopted in February affecting public consumption, social benefits, subsidies, current and capital transfers. However, these deficit-reducing effects are expected to be partly offset by the projected brisk increase in interest payments on public debt to around 2.0% of GDP, pushed by higher rates on new issues.
For 2025, based on unchanged policies, the general government deficit is expected to decline to 5.0% of GDP. While the revenue ratio is expected to increase only marginally, the expenditure ratio is projected to decline by pps., mainly due to the expected growth rebound. This forecast assumes the almost complete phase-out of energy-related measures. In turn, interest payments on government debt are projected to rise further by 0.3 pps, to 2.3% of GDP.
After declining to 110.6% of GDP in 2023, public debt is estimated to trend up again, reaching around 112.5% in 2024 and almost 114% by 2025. The upward trend is expected to be mainly driven by high primary deficits and rising interest payments, whereas the debt-reducing effect stemming from nominal growth is projected be more moderate than in recent years.
Electricity consumption varies throughout the day. It peaks and dips depending on the time, on the day of the week, on holiday periods and public holidays, as well as on the seasons and on weather conditions. It reflects the day-to-day life of the French population and the French economy.
However, not all data can be remotely monitored: RTE uses mathematical models to produce estimates or "flat rates". This provides CO2mix with real-time indicators which are compiled from remotely monitored data supplemented by forecasts.
Differences between forecast and actual electricity consumption are primarily due to changing weather conditions. For example, temperature and natural light are factors that directly influence electricity consumption, which is difficult to forecast accurately. Similarly, in spite of all the available historical consumption records, it is impossible to accurately predict residential and business customer behaviours in advance.
For all the aforementioned reasons, there is always some difference between forecast and actual electricity consumption, even when time periods are as short as a few hours, as is the case with "D0" forecasts.
Click on this button below the graph to view daily consumption spikes
depending on average temperatures since the 1st of January 2012.
You will note that electricity consumption is primarily affected by weather conditions and calendar periods.
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Importance: Growing evidence indicates that higher intake of ultraprocessed foods is associated with higher incidence of noncommunicable diseases. However, to date, the association between ultraprocessed foods consumption and mortality risk has never been investigated.
Design, setting, and participants: This observational prospective cohort study selected adults, 45 years or older, from the French NutriNet-Sant Study, an ongoing cohort study that launched on May 11, 2009, and performed a follow-up through December 15, 2017 (a median of 7.1 years). Participants were selected if they completed at least 1 set of 3 web-based 24-hour dietary records during their first 2 years of follow-up. Self-reported data were collected at baseline, including sociodemographic, lifestyle, physical activity, weight and height, and anthropometrics.
Exposures: The ultraprocessed foods group (from the NOVA food classification system), characterized as ready-to-eat or -heat formulations made mostly from ingredients usually combined with additives. Proportion (in weight) of ultraprocessed foods in the diet was computed for each participant.
Main outcomes and measures: The association between proportion of ultraprocessed foods and overall mortality was the main outcome. Mean dietary intakes from all of the 24-hour dietary records available during the first 2 years of follow-up were calculated and considered as the baseline usual food-and-drink intakes. Mortality was assessed using CpiDC, the French national registry of specific mortality causes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were determined for all-cause mortality, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, with age as the underlying time metric.
Conclusions and relevance: An increase in ultraprocessed foods consumption appears to be associated with an overall higher mortality risk among this adult population; further prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings and to disentangle the various mechanisms by which ultraprocessed foods may affect health.
Importance Growing evidence indicates that higher intake of ultraprocessed foods is associated with higher incidence of noncommunicable diseases. However, to date, the association between ultraprocessed foods consumption and mortality risk has never been investigated.
Design, Setting, and Participants This observational prospective cohort study selected adults, 45 years or older, from the French NutriNet-Sant Study, an ongoing cohort study that launched on May 11, 2009, and performed a follow-up through December 15, 2017 (a median of 7.1 years). Participants were selected if they completed at least 1 set of 3 web-based 24-hour dietary records during their first 2 years of follow-up. Self-reported data were collected at baseline, including sociodemographic, lifestyle, physical activity, weight and height, and anthropometrics.
Exposures The ultraprocessed foods group (from the NOVA food classification system), characterized as ready-to-eat or -heat formulations made mostly from ingredients usually combined with additives. Proportion (in weight) of ultraprocessed foods in the diet was computed for each participant.
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