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Sponsored by Probolsky
Research
Welcome to the Ballot Bulletin:
We track developments in election policy at the federal, state, and local levels. Each issue includes an in-depth feature, such as an interview or
legislative analysis, and discussions of recent events relating to electoral and primary systems, redistricting, and voting provisions.
In this month’s edition,
we take a closer look at the 2018 elections and examine their impact on the 2020 redistricting cycle. We’ll also bring you up to speed on recent developments involving ranked-choice voting and approval voting.
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2018 midterm elections: how will the outcome of the midterms affect the 2020 redistricting cycle?
Governorships
- On Nov. 6,
gubernatorial elections took place in 36 states. In 27 of these states, governors will play a part in the redistricting cycle taking place after the 2020 census. In general, governors can exercise one of the following authorities during the
redistricting process:
- Vetoing maps adopted by legislatures
- Sitting on commissions charged with redistricting
- Appointing members directly to redistricting commissions
- Of these 27 governorships, Democrats won 10 and Republicans won 16, with the outcome of one governorship, Georgia's,
undetermined as of Nov. 14.
- In Illinois, Maine, New Mexico, and Nevada, Democrats won governorships, giving their parties trifecta control
of their states.
- In New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu (R) won re-election, but Democrats took both chambers of the state legislature,
establishing divided government.
- In Kansas and Wisconsin, Democrats won governorships, establishing divided governments in these states (in each
state, Republicans control the legislatures).
- The map and chart below identify states that elected governors this year who will play a part in the 2020 redistricting
cycle. Descriptions of gubernatorial redistricting authority are also provided (click to see a larger version).
Ballot measures
- On Nov. 6, voters in Colorado, Michigan, Missouri, and Utah weighed in on the following ballot measures to alter
their states' redistricting processes:
- Colorado
Amendment Y: Voters approved this constitutional amendment establishing a 12-member commission responsible for congressional redistricting. Four members must come from the state's largest political party, four from the state's second-largest party, and
four must be unaffiliated with any party.
- Colorado
Amendment Z: Voters approved this constitutional amendment establishing a 12-member commission responsible for state legislative redistricting. Four members must come from the state's largest political party, four from the state's second-largest party,
and four must be unaffiliated with any party.
- Michigan
Proposal 2: Voters approved a constitutional amendment transferring redistricting authority from the state legislature to a 13-member commission. Four commissioners must be Democrats, and four must be Republicans. The remaining members must be unaffiliated
or affiliated with third parties.
- Missouri
Amendment 1: Voters approved a constitutional amendment establishing the authority of a nonpartisan state demographer in the state legislative redistricting process. The demographer must present his or her map to the state legislative redistricting commission,
which can, by a 70 percent supermajority, vote to alter the proposed map. Should the commission prove unable to approve a map, the demographer's map will take effect.
- Utah
Proposition 4: As of Nov. 14, with 92 percent of precincts reporting, the outcome of this measure remained uncertain: 49.95 percent in favor, 50.05 percent opposed. If it is approved, a seven-member commission would be granted authority over congressional
and state legislative redistricting. This commission, whose members would be appointed by the governor and state legislative leaders, would submit proposed maps to the state legislature for approval or rejection.
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Election policy updates
- Ranked-choice
voting in Maine: On Nov. 13, Bruce Poliquin, the Republican candidate for
Maine's 2nd U.S. House District, and three Maine voters (Brett Baber, Terry Hamm-Morris, and Mary Hartt) filed suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Maine, requesting that the court prohibit the application of
ranked-choice voting in determining the winner of the U.S. House election in that district. Instead, the plaintiffs asked the court to order election officials to apply a
plurality vote system in determining the election's winner. The plaintiffs allege that Maine's ranked-choice voting law violates Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, which they construe to require that winners in U.S. House elections be determined
by plurality vote.
- Ranked-choice
voting in Memphis: On Nov. 6, in Memphis, Tennessee, defeated
Referendum Ordinance No. 5677, thereby retaining the ranked-choice voting system for city council elections adopted via charter amendment in 2008 but as yet unimplemented. The referendum was defeated by a vote of 55.9 percent to 44.1 percent.
- Approval
voting in Fargo, North Dakota: On Nov. 6, voters in Fargo, North Dakota, approved Measure No. 1, providing for the use of
approval voting in municipal elections (i.e., elections for mayor, city commission, and municipal judges). This made Fargo the first U.S. city to adopt approval voting for municipal elections. Under approval voting, voters can vote for any number of candidates
they choose. The candidate receiving the greatest number of votes wins.
- Redistricting
in Maryland: On Nov. 7, a three-judge panel of the United States District Court for the District of Maryland struck down Maryland's congressional district map after finding that the map constituted an illegal
partisan gerrymander against Republicans. The court ruled unanimously that Maryland's congressional map "violates the First Amendment by burdening both the plaintiffs' representational rights and associational rights based on their party affiliation and
voting history." The court prohibited the state from using the map in future congressional elections. According to
Election Law Blog, the case will be directly appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States.
- Apportionment of the U.S. House: On Nov. 5, the Supreme Court of the United States dismissed
LaVergne v. United House of Representatives, an appeal of a lower court decision rejecting a constitutional challenge to the number of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. The number
of seats in the U.S. House is fixed at 435 by the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929. The Congress could, at its discretion, adopt legislation altering the number of seats in the House. Article I, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution establishes a minimum of
one representative for each state (50 seats) and a maximum of one representative per 30,000 persons (over 10,000 seats).
Legislation update: Redistricting, electoral systems, and primary systems bills
The maps below identify states in which redistricting, electoral systems, and primary systems bills are being considered in 2018.
A darker shade of red indicates a greater number of relevant bills.
Redistricting legislation in the United States, 2018
Current as of November 14, 2018
Electoral systems legislation in the United States, 2018
Current as of November 14, 2018
Primary systems legislation in the United States, 2018
Current as of November 14, 2018
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