What's next?

[Paul Conroy]

Heady days for the 4 powers:

England: To win they need to get into France, maybe a beachhead in Picardy, so need to get a fleet into the English Channel. They might be able to pick up a center in Iberia, but should they go for Portugal or Spain - so far the guessing game hasn't worked out well for them. He could probably try and solicit Italy's help to dislodge the French fleet from Spain. They should also try and get an army into Norway, as likely either Denmark or Sweden will fall this turn to Russia. 

Russia: Now that Turkey has turned, they more than ever need to form an alliance with France. As Rumania can't be protected, and if it falls, then Budapest next turn and Vienna after that. They can make up for this by grabbing Denmark this turn, Sweden next and Norway after that. They could offer to assist France into Venice, in return for Holland or Belgium. The biggest worry for Russia must be if France won't deal, or worse will be able to work out some way to ally with England/Turkey. If France moves to the Ruhr, that would be a sure sign of aggression. If Turkey wants it, Rumania is toast, should Russia then move their fleet to the Black Sea, and hold this key position, thereby pinning down Turkish forces in Northern Turkey in a guessing game? Of course if Russia can't get a deal out of France, then he might try a reconciliation with England, as they are both in a position to carve up Northern France right now - this of course  would upset the England/Turkey alliance, so doubtful England would risk that.

France: Needs to block the English move to the English Channel, or try and drive England out of the Mid-Atlantic. It looks like Italy will grab Marseilles and Turkey will grab Tuscany this turn. If they can work out a deal with Russia they could get Venice and then push towards Trieste. If they're not careful and Turkey gets a fleet into the Gulf of Lyon, then all Southern France will surely fall.

Turkey: Is in a comfortable position right now. With Rumania and Tuscany about to fall. What's not clear is why they built a fleet in Smyrna and not in Constantinople - I guess it must be so that they can get army pieces to Greece, then Italy, then France faster? He surely will move fleets to the Western Med, and Gulf of Lyons if he can. Of course if Turkey hits Southern France too hard and it's forced to disband armies in the North, it could lead the way to Russia grabbing some of the North. I think that Turkey needs to regain the Black Sea, as otherwise why did they build an army in Ankara, if not to transport it North. Is it possible that Turkey - who didn't build an army in Bulgaria - has convinced Russia that they can be friends again, and go after France together?

Cheers,

Paul

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

Turkey can't build in Bulgaria, it isn't a home center. Turkey's first fleet is obviously Smyrna, the question is why he didn't build a second, and presumably that is because he feels he needs a second army more. A second army can fight this year if Russia is hostile, whereas a second fleet is useless for a while, since the first fleet has to go through Ion, which means going Con-Aeg-Gre-Ion-Nap or Con-Aeg-Gre-Alb-Adr as the first potentially impactful thing it could do. A sixth fleet only makes sense if Turkey expects to get it to the front in time to matter, and have a way to use it.

Also, Turkey ALREADY has a fleet in the Gulf of Lyon; Italy is a Turkish vassel, as if they disobey Turkey can take them out at will. This has the advantage, of course, of Turkey being able to trust him completely, at the cost of a potential case of You Have Outlived Your Usefulness that may come in the future. Southern France is in a very dangerous situation assuming Turkey chooses to press, and if England cooperates it's basically toast.

In Russia's area, yes they can grab at Denmark, Sweden and Norway (Den-Swe-Nwy) but if they do then England is going to be hostile unless he's big on taking one (three?) for the team - and if E/T forms, can F/R win against them?

As you correctly identified, the question is whether Russia and Turkey are at war, and if they are which side France is on. We'll find out in a few hours, or at least have some better information.

[Paul Conroy]

Zvi,

Oops, didn't realize that countries are confined to build in Home Centers!

Cheers,

Paul

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

VERY different game if that isn't the case. There are variations where players can build elsewhere, but the base game is not one of them. I certainly don't play the last turn the same way if I have the choice, since I'd be trying to build F Tunis and wouldn't have cared about Italy.