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Spring 1902: Eastern Adventures
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Dec 9, 2010, 1:13:44 PM12/9/10
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
By now anyone who wants to figure out who I am has figured it out, so I'm considering saying it outright; I will do so if 5 of the 6 other players actively agree including one NYC guy, or all 6 if we're actually all NYC. One big advantage is I can answer rules questions and post status updates in-game, which I can't do otherwise.
This was a fun turn. The board is full of possibilities for many players, and we're seeing the results of tactical success and failure. One thing players don't understand is how much tactical success can lead to diplomatic success. No one wants to fight a war they can't win!
England: You guessed Picardy, and France did too. Whoops. Meanwhile, leaving the fleet in Norway was potentially a serious mistake, as if Russia slides into Norway there it's a huge risk and you're probably in a very bad world state either way. The standard move here would have been to go back to North Sea to either leave Norway open or convoy over, which will now have to wait a year since Germany seems like he's headed for Sweden and a retreat to Norway has to be blocked. With Germany in Belgium he can now get support into Picardy or try for Brest, but the Mid-Atlantic fleet can cover Brest at low cost. Going for Mid-Atlantic doesn't accomplish much without a second fleet. It's going to be a long, hard slog and Burgundy could fall back to France this turn. Note that Germany and Italy don't automatically get allied to each other, and have potentially conflicting eastern interests. I've never seen players that can fight in the East and ally in the West, but in theory it could happen. In theory. More likely and more dangerous to England is that Germany may decide to turn on him and go with France, so he needs to watch his back and if Germany builds a third fleet that probably means peace isn't going to last long.
France: Perfect turn, that was the best case scenario. Italy is sending at most one unit, and has a large coordination issue making that unit count. England can only effectively send in one unit, and Germany is sending three or more to the east. There's no way to make progress beyond Burgundy since the English armies make Liverpool well-covered and Germany will likely build two units, but that's pretty good for a two on one. This next turn probably improves France's position rather than weakens it! France's goal should now be to turn England and Germany against each other, presumably as an ally of Germany but it could also be of England if England thinks Germany is going to strike first otherwise. France is very much in this game!
Germany: He's sending his armies east, and Russia has technically triggered the Turkish alliance. He has Belgium and can't get much more easily in the west, but will get Sweden unless England stops him which seems highly unlikely so he'll build two if he wants to. The army in Silesia indicates this might be far more serious than just a raid for a free center, though. That army could in theory support Russian units moving south, or it could do what it looks like and support Austrian units moving north, or it could be defensive against a raid by Russia. Austria's alliances are very hard to read. Germany will have a choice in the winter on what to build, and he will be tempted to build a third fleet which may or may not then try to get to London sooner rather than later. If he builds all armies then he's presumably headed into Russia and France, and knocking out Russia's northern units will free England to bring more forces down on France. Note that Turkey looks like it is at war with Russia, and Germany looks like it is at war with Russia, and Italy looks like it is at war with Turkey, so either of them supporting the other would be a sign that things are not what they seem or they've gotten *very* complicated.
Austria: He's recovered nicely from his error, and he's done it without picking an obvious side in the Russia-Turkey war. He's still clashing in Galicia but that could have been an intentional bounce any or all of the time. Greece is back in his camp and he's occupied Venice. Note how much better it is to have an army in Venice and not a fleet, but it's still devastating to Italy if Austria is sticking around because his move requires three units to work and that would leave nothing behind to defend Naples and Rome. There are essentially two possibilities. If he's with Italy and Russia against Turkey, Turkey is toast. In that case, the fleet was a bluff to fool Turkey into letting his guard down, although it's not clear how much that changes Turkey's moves unless Austria gets him to do things like leave Bulgaria unsupported. This next turn he will have no choice but to pick a side in both conflicts. A deal with Italy would mean a strike into Bulgaria, and a deal with Russia means one into Romania and Galicia. There's a case to be made for a triple against Turkey, as triples take enemies down fast, and there's a case to be made for joining Turkey as he already has six centers, Turkey would grow to five under most sets of moves and Italy-Russia would combine for only seven with Germany sending several as well. So Austria can win either war, the question is which he wants to fight. He could also take a third option and move into Tyrolia this turn and try to take down Italy quickly, which might work but lets Russia into Galicia.
Italy: It's the Lepanto! It can get blocked, but the block is rare. He can try for Aegean Sea, Smyrna or Syria. Aegean Sea works every time but strands the army in Tunis (potentially to be disbanded) and exposes the homeland without it being clear that anything will fall, so the amount of trust required to do that is obscene. That leaves Smyrna or Syria. Is greed good? Turkey can and more often than not will (especially in a group that Max-Mins this much) cover it, but Italy knows that and Turkey knows he knows. A mixed strategy is called for in theory, but in practice Turkey covers because the cost is low and failing is a disaster and Italy goes to Syria if he's going to keep headed east. Now the question is: Is Austria on his side, or not? If Austria is keeping Venice, Italy's attack into Turkey is doomed. He'll get into (presumably) Syria, but with the loss of a center. If he disbands Piedmont then there's no safe defense of both Naples and Rome in 1903, although Austria has to guess right to get one right away if Italy defends. Longer term it doesn't get better since Turkey is unlikely to fall in this world. If he disbands other units Piedmont (or Tuscany, which is a valid defensive move this turn) can help hold the fort and Italy can hold on for a while, potentially launching an attack to retake Venice although that will be very hard to do. Italy took a big risk trying for Marseilles, and it's hard to see how it would have led to him getting a center, so he'd better hope Austria honors the deal assuming there is one. If Austria does, the standard way to go from here is Syria now, Aegean Sea in the Spring 1903 and then Smyrna faces three units in the fall which Turkey likely can't spare, or if three aren't even needed other plays are possible. The alliance could quickly start treating Russia as hostile, especially considering Russia doesn't do so well in this scenario.
Russia: That could have gone worse if Austria had chosen to make it worse, with hostile units in Romania and Galicia, so lucky for Russia that he didn't but he also didn't get Austria's help and they're still fighting over Galicia. Meanwhile, the Germans are coming. Sweden is dead unless Germany or England saves it, neither of which is likely, but the possibility of retreat means St Petersburg can be left open since England would lose Norway. In the south he failed to get Black Sea due to the rule that two equally supported attacks going in opposite directions bounce. There was no way to dislodge Turkey's fleet without guessing right since Bulgaria to Romania cuts off the other attack. That was safe last turn since a dislodged army in Bulgaria could go to Greece, but it isn't safe now if Austria is hostile, in which case Turkey only lives for any reasonable amount of time if Italy backs down. If it becomes I/T against R/A then tactics matter a lot to determine whether I/T can hold out until the cavalry arrives from the west, but that's a very odd scenario. More likely is either the full I/T/R, in which case the right play now is essentially to try and guess correctly (and the move from Sevastopol is the low risk, low reward play while moving from Romania is likely to do nothing but it's a guessing game and if it works you're happier).
Turkey: A correct guess in the north kept the Black Sea strong for another turn, but Italy launched a Lepanto. Austria kept his move neutral, moving against Italy instead, which puts him implicitly in Turkey's camp if he's serious but there's no cost to him of doing what he did if he intends to leave so it can't be assumed to be real and the nightmare could be complete next turn. Getting Austria to support him is Turkey's best chance at survival, since all others require a diplomatic miracle, but turning either Russia or Italy helps the timetable quite a bit - There are four countries in the east right now and Turkey needs to get an ally somewhere, if possible two of them, or it's going to be a short game. As noted under Austria he can win the war with either Turkey or Russia as an ally, and right now has his pick of them.
Overall Note: A lot of players have chosen to play moves that don't tip their hand to the other players. That can be either because of a desire to fool their targets for fun and profit, to keep options open until getting more information and/or better deals, to get leverage, or perhaps because it's more fun. Also note that a lot of the moves that *look* like they commit a player don't actually do that, and any war or alliance on the map can be undone as early as next turn if the diplomatic situation changes.
Timing Note: My hope is that we can get a turnaround time of a day for the moves, and less for the retreats and builds, but then again I'd love it if the game was so fluid in its alliances that we need the full two days each turn!
This was a fun turn. The board is full of possibilities for many players, and we're seeing the results of tactical success and failure. One thing players don't understand is how much tactical success can lead to diplomatic success. No one wants to fight a war they can't win!
England: You guessed Picardy, and France did too. Whoops. Meanwhile, leaving the fleet in Norway was potentially a serious mistake, as if Russia slides into Norway there it's a huge risk and you're probably in a very bad world state either way. The standard move here would have been to go back to North Sea to either leave Norway open or convoy over, which will now have to wait a year since Germany seems like he's headed for Sweden and a retreat to Norway has to be blocked. With Germany in Belgium he can now get support into Picardy or try for Brest, but the Mid-Atlantic fleet can cover Brest at low cost. Going for Mid-Atlantic doesn't accomplish much without a second fleet. It's going to be a long, hard slog and Burgundy could fall back to France this turn. Note that Germany and Italy don't automatically get allied to each other, and have potentially conflicting eastern interests. I've never seen players that can fight in the East and ally in the West, but in theory it could happen. In theory. More likely and more dangerous to England is that Germany may decide to turn on him and go with France, so he needs to watch his back and if Germany builds a third fleet that probably means peace isn't going to last long.
France: Perfect turn, that was the best case scenario. Italy is sending at most one unit, and has a large coordination issue making that unit count. England can only effectively send in one unit, and Germany is sending three or more to the east. There's no way to make progress beyond Burgundy since the English armies make Liverpool well-covered and Germany will likely build two units, but that's pretty good for a two on one. This next turn probably improves France's position rather than weakens it! France's goal should now be to turn England and Germany against each other, presumably as an ally of Germany but it could also be of England if England thinks Germany is going to strike first otherwise. France is very much in this game!
Germany: He's sending his armies east, and Russia has technically triggered the Turkish alliance. He has Belgium and can't get much more easily in the west, but will get Sweden unless England stops him which seems highly unlikely so he'll build two if he wants to. The army in Silesia indicates this might be far more serious than just a raid for a free center, though. That army could in theory support Russian units moving south, or it could do what it looks like and support Austrian units moving north, or it could be defensive against a raid by Russia. Austria's alliances are very hard to read. Germany will have a choice in the winter on what to build, and he will be tempted to build a third fleet which may or may not then try to get to London sooner rather than later. If he builds all armies then he's presumably headed into Russia and France, and knocking out Russia's northern units will free England to bring more forces down on France. Note that Turkey looks like it is at war with Russia, and Germany looks like it is at war with Russia, and Italy looks like it is at war with Turkey, so either of them supporting the other would be a sign that things are not what they seem or they've gotten *very* complicated.
Austria: He's recovered nicely from his error, and he's done it without picking an obvious side in the Russia-Turkey war. He's still clashing in Galicia but that could have been an intentional bounce any or all of the time. Greece is back in his camp and he's occupied Venice. Note how much better it is to have an army in Venice and not a fleet, but it's still devastating to Italy if Austria is sticking around because his move requires three units to work and that would leave nothing behind to defend Naples and Rome. There are essentially two possibilities. If he's with Italy and Russia against Turkey, Turkey is toast. In that case, the fleet was a bluff to fool Turkey into letting his guard down, although it's not clear how much that changes Turkey's moves unless Austria gets him to do things like leave Bulgaria unsupported. This next turn he will have no choice but to pick a side in both conflicts. A deal with Italy would mean a strike into Bulgaria, and a deal with Russia means one into Romania and Galicia. There's a case to be made for a triple against Turkey, as triples take enemies down fast, and there's a case to be made for joining Turkey as he already has six centers, Turkey would grow to five under most sets of moves and Italy-Russia would combine for only seven with Germany sending several as well. So Austria can win either war, the question is which he wants to fight. He could also take a third option and move into Tyrolia this turn and try to take down Italy quickly, which might work but lets Russia into Galicia.
Italy: It's the Lepanto! It can get blocked, but the block is rare. He can try for Aegean Sea, Smyrna or Syria. Aegean Sea works every time but strands the army in Tunis (potentially to be disbanded) and exposes the homeland without it being clear that anything will fall, so the amount of trust required to do that is obscene. That leaves Smyrna or Syria. Is greed good? Turkey can and more often than not will (especially in a group that Max-Mins this much) cover it, but Italy knows that and Turkey knows he knows. A mixed strategy is called for in theory, but in practice Turkey covers because the cost is low and failing is a disaster and Italy goes to Syria if he's going to keep headed east. Now the question is: Is Austria on his side, or not? If Austria is keeping Venice, Italy's attack into Turkey is doomed. He'll get into (presumably) Syria, but with the loss of a center. If he disbands Piedmont then there's no safe defense of both Naples and Rome in 1903, although Austria has to guess right to get one right away if Italy defends. Longer term it doesn't get better since Turkey is unlikely to fall in this world. If he disbands other units Piedmont (or Tuscany, which is a valid defensive move this turn) can help hold the fort and Italy can hold on for a while, potentially launching an attack to retake Venice although that will be very hard to do. Italy took a big risk trying for Marseilles, and it's hard to see how it would have led to him getting a center, so he'd better hope Austria honors the deal assuming there is one. If Austria does, the standard way to go from here is Syria now, Aegean Sea in the Spring 1903 and then Smyrna faces three units in the fall which Turkey likely can't spare, or if three aren't even needed other plays are possible. The alliance could quickly start treating Russia as hostile, especially considering Russia doesn't do so well in this scenario.
Russia: That could have gone worse if Austria had chosen to make it worse, with hostile units in Romania and Galicia, so lucky for Russia that he didn't but he also didn't get Austria's help and they're still fighting over Galicia. Meanwhile, the Germans are coming. Sweden is dead unless Germany or England saves it, neither of which is likely, but the possibility of retreat means St Petersburg can be left open since England would lose Norway. In the south he failed to get Black Sea due to the rule that two equally supported attacks going in opposite directions bounce. There was no way to dislodge Turkey's fleet without guessing right since Bulgaria to Romania cuts off the other attack. That was safe last turn since a dislodged army in Bulgaria could go to Greece, but it isn't safe now if Austria is hostile, in which case Turkey only lives for any reasonable amount of time if Italy backs down. If it becomes I/T against R/A then tactics matter a lot to determine whether I/T can hold out until the cavalry arrives from the west, but that's a very odd scenario. More likely is either the full I/T/R, in which case the right play now is essentially to try and guess correctly (and the move from Sevastopol is the low risk, low reward play while moving from Romania is likely to do nothing but it's a guessing game and if it works you're happier).
Turkey: A correct guess in the north kept the Black Sea strong for another turn, but Italy launched a Lepanto. Austria kept his move neutral, moving against Italy instead, which puts him implicitly in Turkey's camp if he's serious but there's no cost to him of doing what he did if he intends to leave so it can't be assumed to be real and the nightmare could be complete next turn. Getting Austria to support him is Turkey's best chance at survival, since all others require a diplomatic miracle, but turning either Russia or Italy helps the timetable quite a bit - There are four countries in the east right now and Turkey needs to get an ally somewhere, if possible two of them, or it's going to be a short game. As noted under Austria he can win the war with either Turkey or Russia as an ally, and right now has his pick of them.
Overall Note: A lot of players have chosen to play moves that don't tip their hand to the other players. That can be either because of a desire to fool their targets for fun and profit, to keep options open until getting more information and/or better deals, to get leverage, or perhaps because it's more fun. Also note that a lot of the moves that *look* like they commit a player don't actually do that, and any war or alliance on the map can be undone as early as next turn if the diplomatic situation changes.
Timing Note: My hope is that we can get a turnaround time of a day for the moves, and less for the retreats and builds, but then again I'd love it if the game was so fluid in its alliances that we need the full two days each turn!
William Ryan
Dec 9, 2010, 1:36:56 PM12/9/10
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
Fascinating analysis as always!
If Zvi announces status updates in-game the two LW randoms will get access to his analysis. I am not sure if this would be beneficial or not... so a tentative no on Zvi revealing his identity, until we have more discussion.
If Zvi announces status updates in-game the two LW randoms will get access to his analysis. I am not sure if this would be beneficial or not... so a tentative no on Zvi revealing his identity, until we have more discussion.
Zvi Mowshowitz
Dec 9, 2010, 2:00:19 PM12/9/10
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
I intended this commentary to be for all 7 players, and this group is open enrollment. As per the rule, unless at least one of them sees it and votes yes, I won't reveal.
Alex Richard
Dec 11, 2010, 12:33:57 AM12/11/10
to LW Diplomacy
I'm a non-NYC player; I vote yes.
On Dec 9, 2:00 pm, Zvi Mowshowitz <the...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I intended this commentary to be for all 7 players, and this group is open
> enrollment. As per the rule, unless at least one of them sees it and votes
> yes, I won't reveal.
>
> ...
>
> read more »
On Dec 9, 2:00 pm, Zvi Mowshowitz <the...@gmail.com> wrote:
> I intended this commentary to be for all 7 players, and this group is open
> enrollment. As per the rule, unless at least one of them sees it and votes
> yes, I won't reveal.
>
>
> read more »
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