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Spring 1905: No Surrender at Munich
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Dec 26, 2010, 10:45:49 AM12/26/10
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
England: France/Germany is a reality, completing the trinity of western alliances, but if Russia and Turkey hold strong he's still on the winning side; there aren't enough free fleets to cause England short term trouble before the Eastern Alliance can arrive especially if France commits two fleets to the south as he has for now. If Turkey or Russia switched sides, especially Russia, England would be in serious trouble. Now it's a guessing game to sustain Denmark and climb to six centers, allowing the building of another fleet and making England a legitimate major power. France very much does not want this to happen, whether he can turn a member of the alliance or not, but it's not clear he has much influence on that. England needs to start keeping an eye on Russia's forces in the north to make sure he can't be stabbed, as he is in many ways a logical future target; the France/Germany alliance could prove good for England as it buys him time before Russia's steam roller has to find another target, and England needs that time to finish getting back on his feet.
France: Not moving to Holland was honoring the new alliance with Germany, not moving to Ruhr was potentially a critical tactical mistake. Joining up with Germany helps keep Russia in check, but also puts France on a collision course with England which isn't dangerous in the short term but could raipdly get ugly if England gets another build. if France/Germany and England/Russia hold in the west, Turkey holds the balance of power in the long term but can't actually tilt the central battle much for a while. The move to Gulf of Lyon shuts off a rapid move into the Mid-Atlantic. In exchange it signals that France doesn't intend to do that and gives a few additional options in the south that may or may not be better but do at least keep Turkey and Italy guessing. France can now choose whether to try and steal Holland, but isn't in a position to gain anything else in the north. In the south Rome is currently held by Italy and Tyrolia is going to get dislodged or at least cut. France can try to take it back, in which case he can't try to gain anything else but it probably works. He can try for Venice, which gives him a free shot at Naples. If Turkey is still in Italy's corner, France is going to lose a center in the south no matter what both sides guess and in some nightmares he can lose two. If Turkey is actively friendly, France at least holds steady and Italy could even be eliminated this turn if he doesn't cover Naples.
Germany: France has turned from archenemy to lord protector, turning Germany into a French vassel state for the time being. France's first move indicates he wants Germany alive, but is that enough to save him? A guessing game allows him to try for Denmark, Sweden or Norway or to try to recapture Berlin. If Germany guesses right and France doesn't take Holland (or Germany covers it) he stays at four centers, but the advance of Russia's fleets and armies will carry the day eventually unless something changes. If it doesn't happen this turn, Germany may or may not have another year where he can still turn things around, but he could still end up critical tactically and should remember the DIAS rule (Draws Include All Survivors) as should Italy.
Italy: If Italy had moved in from Venice he'd be secure in Rome and Naples but be at severe risk of losing Venice. Actually blocking the move to Tuscany would have led to the same situation. Here it's actually similar. It's impossible for Italy and Turkey to lock Italy into a build even if Turkey makes that his top priority. France's natural play is to cut Venice and attack Rome, or attack Venice and shoot for Naples, or possibly attack Venice and cut Rome but Turkey has supported Venice for a while. Italy wants badly to build a fleet and return to relevance, but there's no way to lock that in and even a friendly Turkey would rather paint the world yellow than green. However, Italy has very little leverage to play one side against the other, and if he tries might lose all his centers in one turn to a France/Turkey deal even if they go right back to fighting afterward.
Russia: The F/G alliance is frustrating and slows things down, but if E/R/T holds the only danger is falling behind on centers and planning for who is going to be on the losing end of the triangle later on. Both enemies are already going to be struggling to maintain their center counts and it only gets worse over time. If Russia plays it safe this turn he'll take Tyrolia and set up the fall of Munich, followed by the Baltic Sea and Kiel. Then the temptation is to stab England, so the alliance will soon need to concern itself with that problem. Turkey is impossible to properly attack at the moment, and it's a balancing act how much Russia wants to permit that to continue; it makes him an attractive alliance partner, but at some point he has to either outpace Turkey (and get stabbed as a response) or stab Turkey to try and win. Turkey could turn on Russia at any time, but he could also stay in the alliance for years. I obviously can't say more than that.
Turkey: Last turn was scripted, and everyone on the board knew it. This turn isn't. A stab of Russia is possible, or Turkey could move further west, and could do that as an Italian ally, a French ally (with or without a stab of Russia as such) or on his own. Turkey could easily see his window close and be shut out of Italy or limited to one center, which may or may not be what he wants especially if Turkey heads north. Turkey is in by far the safest position right now, and can likely choose which side of the F/G vs. R/E war is victorious, but that could change quickly or even be a mirage. Turkey can grow if he chooses to, but it's a long way from 8-9 to 18 and Turkey isn't even close to a foothold in the west. Without one, a move against the board even from strength and 11-13 centers can at most lead to a stalemate and there are no prizes for 17 centers beyond an equal draw share. If R/T wants a draw, it will require VERY careful planning as Russia itself is mostly on Turkey's half of the board if you want a stable division of 17/17.
France: Not moving to Holland was honoring the new alliance with Germany, not moving to Ruhr was potentially a critical tactical mistake. Joining up with Germany helps keep Russia in check, but also puts France on a collision course with England which isn't dangerous in the short term but could raipdly get ugly if England gets another build. if France/Germany and England/Russia hold in the west, Turkey holds the balance of power in the long term but can't actually tilt the central battle much for a while. The move to Gulf of Lyon shuts off a rapid move into the Mid-Atlantic. In exchange it signals that France doesn't intend to do that and gives a few additional options in the south that may or may not be better but do at least keep Turkey and Italy guessing. France can now choose whether to try and steal Holland, but isn't in a position to gain anything else in the north. In the south Rome is currently held by Italy and Tyrolia is going to get dislodged or at least cut. France can try to take it back, in which case he can't try to gain anything else but it probably works. He can try for Venice, which gives him a free shot at Naples. If Turkey is still in Italy's corner, France is going to lose a center in the south no matter what both sides guess and in some nightmares he can lose two. If Turkey is actively friendly, France at least holds steady and Italy could even be eliminated this turn if he doesn't cover Naples.
Germany: France has turned from archenemy to lord protector, turning Germany into a French vassel state for the time being. France's first move indicates he wants Germany alive, but is that enough to save him? A guessing game allows him to try for Denmark, Sweden or Norway or to try to recapture Berlin. If Germany guesses right and France doesn't take Holland (or Germany covers it) he stays at four centers, but the advance of Russia's fleets and armies will carry the day eventually unless something changes. If it doesn't happen this turn, Germany may or may not have another year where he can still turn things around, but he could still end up critical tactically and should remember the DIAS rule (Draws Include All Survivors) as should Italy.
Italy: If Italy had moved in from Venice he'd be secure in Rome and Naples but be at severe risk of losing Venice. Actually blocking the move to Tuscany would have led to the same situation. Here it's actually similar. It's impossible for Italy and Turkey to lock Italy into a build even if Turkey makes that his top priority. France's natural play is to cut Venice and attack Rome, or attack Venice and shoot for Naples, or possibly attack Venice and cut Rome but Turkey has supported Venice for a while. Italy wants badly to build a fleet and return to relevance, but there's no way to lock that in and even a friendly Turkey would rather paint the world yellow than green. However, Italy has very little leverage to play one side against the other, and if he tries might lose all his centers in one turn to a France/Turkey deal even if they go right back to fighting afterward.
Russia: The F/G alliance is frustrating and slows things down, but if E/R/T holds the only danger is falling behind on centers and planning for who is going to be on the losing end of the triangle later on. Both enemies are already going to be struggling to maintain their center counts and it only gets worse over time. If Russia plays it safe this turn he'll take Tyrolia and set up the fall of Munich, followed by the Baltic Sea and Kiel. Then the temptation is to stab England, so the alliance will soon need to concern itself with that problem. Turkey is impossible to properly attack at the moment, and it's a balancing act how much Russia wants to permit that to continue; it makes him an attractive alliance partner, but at some point he has to either outpace Turkey (and get stabbed as a response) or stab Turkey to try and win. Turkey could turn on Russia at any time, but he could also stay in the alliance for years. I obviously can't say more than that.
Turkey: Last turn was scripted, and everyone on the board knew it. This turn isn't. A stab of Russia is possible, or Turkey could move further west, and could do that as an Italian ally, a French ally (with or without a stab of Russia as such) or on his own. Turkey could easily see his window close and be shut out of Italy or limited to one center, which may or may not be what he wants especially if Turkey heads north. Turkey is in by far the safest position right now, and can likely choose which side of the F/G vs. R/E war is victorious, but that could change quickly or even be a mirage. Turkey can grow if he chooses to, but it's a long way from 8-9 to 18 and Turkey isn't even close to a foothold in the west. Without one, a move against the board even from strength and 11-13 centers can at most lead to a stalemate and there are no prizes for 17 centers beyond an equal draw share. If R/T wants a draw, it will require VERY careful planning as Russia itself is mostly on Turkey's half of the board if you want a stable division of 17/17.
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