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Spring 1907: A Break in the Lines
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Jan 7, 2011, 7:55:37 PM1/7/11
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
Surprise! France clearly made a deal with Russia. Russia clearly lied. What happens next?
England: There were only two worthwhile moves in the west: Go for English Channel with support or try for Portugal. In theory you can try for Spain but that creates issues with Turkey's agenda and has too many ways to accidentally fail on weird plays, so it only makes sense if Italy's support is available. Once again, France outguessed England and is marginally safer for it, and England has been set back. Meanwhile, North Sea finally got one of those damned armies out of England into Norway, which should provide much needed peace of mind for him and the lack of it for Russia. This turn he has several choices. Mid-Atlantic can support into English Channel, support or go into Spain or try for Portugal again. North Sea can also support into the Channel, or can support or go into (convoy into?) Holland. There's also the stab of Russia, which can't take a center right away but can set things up for good times in the future. It's especially good if you think Russia's about to come for you soon. Russia supporting Norway to Holland could be a way to get a win-win for both of them if everyone is willing, but both sides have to be asking the big question of what happens next now that France has been stabbed and his time remaining has dropped dramatically. Russia has clearly indicated he doesn't want to go south, but if not then where will he go? But if you oppose Russia, do you hand the win to Turkey?
France: France trusted Russia and paid the price. The argument for him probably went something like this: I have to make a deal with someone. If I make one with Russia, and he keeps it, I have a chance. If he breaks it, I'm not that much more dead than before. If I make a deal with Turkey, he gets all the glory and wins the game even if he keeps it, so I lose anyway. It's a fair point, but he made a huge mistake in exposing Burgundy because now Paris will burn. One southern center is lost by force unless someone gets in someone's way, and either Holland or Belgium is hanging too if a deal can be made. France could be down to four centers this year and be down to one after 1908. Russia could decide to play ball, but he probably will decide that taking over France is his best chance to survive even if France would be otherwise friendly, plus it's often even harder to trust someone you just stabbed than it is to trust someone who just stabbed you. A deal with Turkey or England has a similar problem. There's nothing France can offer them beyond agreeing to fight for his own survival and/or handing over territory without a fight. Even if he got his break in the alliance, the betrayal may mean it is too late.
Italy: That order was highly unlikely to serve any purpose, but Turkey likely wanted to give France the chance to pull back from Tuscany and Piedmont and defend the homeland. France is probably wishing he'd taken it.
Russia: That was beautiful what he did to France. It burned credibility for the future but it's unlikely to matter at this point. Now he'll pick up Paris (unless he sacrifices it to go for a lock on Belgium or Holland instead) and France is going to collapse likely giving Russia two or three centers. The problem is whether he also fooled Turkey and is facing a real war. If this is a real war, things do not look good and Russia desperately needs to find a way to build an army in Moscow despite the loss of Budapest. Even if the early battles go well, defending against Turkey will require strong tactics and not getting stabbed in the back by England; it's possible that France is no longer an issue because France is more useful as a source of supply centers than as an ally.
Turkey: Turkey's move was the move Turkey would make if he was at war with Russia, but it's also the move he'd make if he simply couldn't trust Russia right now. The fleet not going to Tyrrenian Sea and the army not marching to Piedmont are annoying, to be sure, but France is still just as dead and the decoy war has already paid off in the form of Ruhr and Burgundy being handed to Russia. The question now is whether that decoy is about to become real. If Turkey wants to he can wipe out Russia's southern fleet, stay in Budapest and have easy locks on Romania and Moscow plus pressure beyond that. If he doesn't want to do that, he can allow Russia to reclaim the old status quo or agree to some compromise. In the west Turkey is on the verge of capturing Spain and/or Mid-Atlantic Ocean depending on how it plays out. Turkey could be dangerously close to what it takes to try for a solo win.
England: There were only two worthwhile moves in the west: Go for English Channel with support or try for Portugal. In theory you can try for Spain but that creates issues with Turkey's agenda and has too many ways to accidentally fail on weird plays, so it only makes sense if Italy's support is available. Once again, France outguessed England and is marginally safer for it, and England has been set back. Meanwhile, North Sea finally got one of those damned armies out of England into Norway, which should provide much needed peace of mind for him and the lack of it for Russia. This turn he has several choices. Mid-Atlantic can support into English Channel, support or go into Spain or try for Portugal again. North Sea can also support into the Channel, or can support or go into (convoy into?) Holland. There's also the stab of Russia, which can't take a center right away but can set things up for good times in the future. It's especially good if you think Russia's about to come for you soon. Russia supporting Norway to Holland could be a way to get a win-win for both of them if everyone is willing, but both sides have to be asking the big question of what happens next now that France has been stabbed and his time remaining has dropped dramatically. Russia has clearly indicated he doesn't want to go south, but if not then where will he go? But if you oppose Russia, do you hand the win to Turkey?
France: France trusted Russia and paid the price. The argument for him probably went something like this: I have to make a deal with someone. If I make one with Russia, and he keeps it, I have a chance. If he breaks it, I'm not that much more dead than before. If I make a deal with Turkey, he gets all the glory and wins the game even if he keeps it, so I lose anyway. It's a fair point, but he made a huge mistake in exposing Burgundy because now Paris will burn. One southern center is lost by force unless someone gets in someone's way, and either Holland or Belgium is hanging too if a deal can be made. France could be down to four centers this year and be down to one after 1908. Russia could decide to play ball, but he probably will decide that taking over France is his best chance to survive even if France would be otherwise friendly, plus it's often even harder to trust someone you just stabbed than it is to trust someone who just stabbed you. A deal with Turkey or England has a similar problem. There's nothing France can offer them beyond agreeing to fight for his own survival and/or handing over territory without a fight. Even if he got his break in the alliance, the betrayal may mean it is too late.
Italy: That order was highly unlikely to serve any purpose, but Turkey likely wanted to give France the chance to pull back from Tuscany and Piedmont and defend the homeland. France is probably wishing he'd taken it.
Russia: That was beautiful what he did to France. It burned credibility for the future but it's unlikely to matter at this point. Now he'll pick up Paris (unless he sacrifices it to go for a lock on Belgium or Holland instead) and France is going to collapse likely giving Russia two or three centers. The problem is whether he also fooled Turkey and is facing a real war. If this is a real war, things do not look good and Russia desperately needs to find a way to build an army in Moscow despite the loss of Budapest. Even if the early battles go well, defending against Turkey will require strong tactics and not getting stabbed in the back by England; it's possible that France is no longer an issue because France is more useful as a source of supply centers than as an ally.
Turkey: Turkey's move was the move Turkey would make if he was at war with Russia, but it's also the move he'd make if he simply couldn't trust Russia right now. The fleet not going to Tyrrenian Sea and the army not marching to Piedmont are annoying, to be sure, but France is still just as dead and the decoy war has already paid off in the form of Ruhr and Burgundy being handed to Russia. The question now is whether that decoy is about to become real. If Turkey wants to he can wipe out Russia's southern fleet, stay in Budapest and have easy locks on Romania and Moscow plus pressure beyond that. If he doesn't want to do that, he can allow Russia to reclaim the old status quo or agree to some compromise. In the west Turkey is on the verge of capturing Spain and/or Mid-Atlantic Ocean depending on how it plays out. Turkey could be dangerously close to what it takes to try for a solo win.
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