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Spring 1906: The Fall of Germany
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Zvi Mowshowitz
Jan 1, 2011, 2:10:22 PM1/1/11
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
England: England passed up the chance to lock in a center in Portugal to try to get an army onto the continent. If it had worked it would have been a huge payoff strategically, but England's bad luck with convoy guessing games continues. In addition, he failed to execute the order correctly. To convoy, you must order the fleet to convoy the army and the army to also move via convoy. As a result, France has a fleet in Brest and will likely reclaim the Mid-Atlantic. The good news is that Germany's desperation could end up causing a French collapse even sooner than expected; a deal with Germany could easily result in a lock on Belgium if England is willing to expose Norway and Sweden. This is a critical turn coming up for England, because after this turn if he emerges with six centers he is a viable fourth (or soon third) major power, and with five he's a good portion of one. He should promise Russia whatever he needs to, to the extent that the promise is credible.
France: The good news is that Portugal won't fall, England again failed to convoy onto the continent and Piedmont could last the year, but Kiel has fallen, the Mediterranean is lost whether or not Turkey stops for lunch and Germany's desperate quest to survive could cost a center. Getting Germany to try to survive a year in Norway or Sweden, or disband and give up, is important to stalling the advance. France may or may not lose a center this turn if you don't count the German ones, but he let those go quickly and evacuated Ruhr, and now he needs a break in the alliance within a year if he's going to hope to come back to win. If that doesn't happen, focus shifts to surviving in a three or four way draw, which means figuring out whether it's Russia or Turkey that's the threat to win and trying to stop them - or if the goal is survival with as many centers as possible, to further along the cause. Russia will likely need at least Belgium but might not need Paris and probably doesn't need Spain or Portugal, while Turkey potentially doesn't need to go north of Marseilles. The south offers a potential partner in Italy, but Italy has to choose between showing he can be a good puppet and trying to fight back and so far has chosen to be a puppet.
Germany: Early on greed, indecision and England's poor tactics messed up Germany's excellent start, and later on France's decision to abandon Germany to the fates led to the end coming quickly. However, all is not quite lost as he can retreat in one of two ways. Option one is to go to Skagerrack and try for Norway or Sweden, but that is unlikely to work because there is a cheap defense that doesn't risk England losing a center (Bal-Swe, Den-Swe, Nts C Ed-Nwy) which means that all he's doing is helping France at the expense of England/Russia, if that's what he wants to do. Option two is to retreat to Ruhr and Heligoland Bight, and launch an attack on Holland. Kiel could support it as well, or England could cut Belgium, either of which makes the attack work. Then the hope is that the game will scramble and everyone will have better things to do, or that Germany can horse trade his way back into Kiel. It's a long shot, and many players don't see the point in wasting their time trying; to some extent players who do see it as metagaming or a service to the game's integrity especially online. But I would try!
Italy: Italy presumably expected a support from Tyrolia, or a French Pie-Mar, or both, because otherwise those moves don't make any sense. The bad news is that the support didn't come, and Turkey wiped out the army in Venice. This could have been the plan all along, since France was a threat to occupy it and having the army there is useful, and a second Italian fleet might be part of the design, or it could have been a semi-stab. Either way, it's doubtful Italy is feeling good about it or comfortable. If Italy doesn't make a deal with France this turn, he'll be at Turkey's mercy and can only hope that Turkey finds him useful. Having an advance fleet, and a fleet that can be made to retreat, have their advantages and Turkey is unlikely to get stuck at exactly 18 due to geography (Turkey likely either gets the entire south for 17, gets into the Atlantic and if he gets near 17 has plenty of slack, or doesn't get close), unless it's a bizarre 17-16-1 style war with Russia where Russia wins in the middle and Turkey has the Atlantic.
Russia: Kiel has fallen, and now progress gets slower. There are three options. The default is a slow march into the lowlands across the Rhine with English naval support. The second option is to make a play against England for Scandanavia, but that almost requires a simultaneous stab of Turkey, or at least a deal with France, or else it invites a Turkish backstab and it would have been better in the Spring. The third is a southern move against Turkey. The anti-Turkey move is tough to justify unless he can isolate Turkey completely, and even then progress would be slow and England will be restless with nothing to do and knowing that he's falling behind. If the move is in the north, Russia needs all the fleets it can get but even this one was obviously ominous to England and building another would likely be war even if the current one was in the Barents Sea. Thus, even though Russia is at 10 centers with Kiel the road forward is difficult. I think there's a clear choice, but I'm not in a position to say what it is.
Turkey: Turkey's forces entered Venice and France was pushed out of Tyrrhenian Sea, but France's armies are still in place so progress is slow, which is presumably what France wants. There are several plans, based on to what extent Italy is allowed to survive and whether France or Russia is the next target. For now, securing the Italian boot is clearly Turkey's top priority, either by kicking out the French, kicking out the Italians or both, but Turkey could grab Budapest and Rumania risk-free if he wanted to and likely build three. The problem is that's well short of the magic 18, so someone would have to choose to help Turkey win and right now Turkey is very much stuck on the southern side of the stalemate line. Until Turkey knows where the win is coming from or the stab looks like it's going to get harder to pull off in the future, a stab remains unlikely. Then again, E/F/T could emerge with the E/F plan being to let Turkey get the east but create a three way draw by holding the west.
France: The good news is that Portugal won't fall, England again failed to convoy onto the continent and Piedmont could last the year, but Kiel has fallen, the Mediterranean is lost whether or not Turkey stops for lunch and Germany's desperate quest to survive could cost a center. Getting Germany to try to survive a year in Norway or Sweden, or disband and give up, is important to stalling the advance. France may or may not lose a center this turn if you don't count the German ones, but he let those go quickly and evacuated Ruhr, and now he needs a break in the alliance within a year if he's going to hope to come back to win. If that doesn't happen, focus shifts to surviving in a three or four way draw, which means figuring out whether it's Russia or Turkey that's the threat to win and trying to stop them - or if the goal is survival with as many centers as possible, to further along the cause. Russia will likely need at least Belgium but might not need Paris and probably doesn't need Spain or Portugal, while Turkey potentially doesn't need to go north of Marseilles. The south offers a potential partner in Italy, but Italy has to choose between showing he can be a good puppet and trying to fight back and so far has chosen to be a puppet.
Germany: Early on greed, indecision and England's poor tactics messed up Germany's excellent start, and later on France's decision to abandon Germany to the fates led to the end coming quickly. However, all is not quite lost as he can retreat in one of two ways. Option one is to go to Skagerrack and try for Norway or Sweden, but that is unlikely to work because there is a cheap defense that doesn't risk England losing a center (Bal-Swe, Den-Swe, Nts C Ed-Nwy) which means that all he's doing is helping France at the expense of England/Russia, if that's what he wants to do. Option two is to retreat to Ruhr and Heligoland Bight, and launch an attack on Holland. Kiel could support it as well, or England could cut Belgium, either of which makes the attack work. Then the hope is that the game will scramble and everyone will have better things to do, or that Germany can horse trade his way back into Kiel. It's a long shot, and many players don't see the point in wasting their time trying; to some extent players who do see it as metagaming or a service to the game's integrity especially online. But I would try!
Italy: Italy presumably expected a support from Tyrolia, or a French Pie-Mar, or both, because otherwise those moves don't make any sense. The bad news is that the support didn't come, and Turkey wiped out the army in Venice. This could have been the plan all along, since France was a threat to occupy it and having the army there is useful, and a second Italian fleet might be part of the design, or it could have been a semi-stab. Either way, it's doubtful Italy is feeling good about it or comfortable. If Italy doesn't make a deal with France this turn, he'll be at Turkey's mercy and can only hope that Turkey finds him useful. Having an advance fleet, and a fleet that can be made to retreat, have their advantages and Turkey is unlikely to get stuck at exactly 18 due to geography (Turkey likely either gets the entire south for 17, gets into the Atlantic and if he gets near 17 has plenty of slack, or doesn't get close), unless it's a bizarre 17-16-1 style war with Russia where Russia wins in the middle and Turkey has the Atlantic.
Russia: Kiel has fallen, and now progress gets slower. There are three options. The default is a slow march into the lowlands across the Rhine with English naval support. The second option is to make a play against England for Scandanavia, but that almost requires a simultaneous stab of Turkey, or at least a deal with France, or else it invites a Turkish backstab and it would have been better in the Spring. The third is a southern move against Turkey. The anti-Turkey move is tough to justify unless he can isolate Turkey completely, and even then progress would be slow and England will be restless with nothing to do and knowing that he's falling behind. If the move is in the north, Russia needs all the fleets it can get but even this one was obviously ominous to England and building another would likely be war even if the current one was in the Barents Sea. Thus, even though Russia is at 10 centers with Kiel the road forward is difficult. I think there's a clear choice, but I'm not in a position to say what it is.
Turkey: Turkey's forces entered Venice and France was pushed out of Tyrrhenian Sea, but France's armies are still in place so progress is slow, which is presumably what France wants. There are several plans, based on to what extent Italy is allowed to survive and whether France or Russia is the next target. For now, securing the Italian boot is clearly Turkey's top priority, either by kicking out the French, kicking out the Italians or both, but Turkey could grab Budapest and Rumania risk-free if he wanted to and likely build three. The problem is that's well short of the magic 18, so someone would have to choose to help Turkey win and right now Turkey is very much stuck on the southern side of the stalemate line. Until Turkey knows where the win is coming from or the stab looks like it's going to get harder to pull off in the future, a stab remains unlikely. Then again, E/F/T could emerge with the E/F plan being to let Turkey get the east but create a three way draw by holding the west.
Paul Conroy
Jan 4, 2011, 3:42:49 PM1/4/11
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
Zvi et al,
Great game, great analysis!
England: Work with Russia/Turkey to dismantle France and try and get Holland, Belgium, Breast, Paris, then after France is gone, stab Russia and grab the North of it.
Turkey: Quickly get all Italy, Iberia, and some of France, then work with England to stab Russia. The question is will Turkey wait to absorb Italy/Iberia - and thus stretch its lines - or will it worry that the Russian bear is getting too strong and do a pre-emptive stab of Russia? The longer Russia is fully engaged in France, the greater the risk of a stab from Turkey. Of course the middle course would be to let Russia get quite big, so that England seemed its next logical target, then ally with England against it.
Russia: Grab as much of Eastern France as possible, and try and get Holland especially, to reduce the English beachhead on the continent, while encouraging England to go after Western France and Iberia, then stab England or Turkey. Obviously if Russia moves too far West, they extend there lines too much, and so expose the North to an English stab, and the East to a Turkish stab. Going after England would be the easier option, but it's got to build in the Balkans soon for security reasons. Of course, rather than provoke a Turkey/England alliance against it, Russia could let Turkey grab Italy and Iberia and proceed into France, and thus possibly provoke England to side with Russia against them.
France: Needs the current England/Russia/Turkey alliance to break ASAP, best strategy would be to work with Russia to go after England, as this would allow Russia to shore up the Balkans and France a reprieve that would allow it to go after England or attempt to recover Tunis and grab some of Italy. As Zvi notes, that would provoke Turkey, which would then lead to an England/Turkey vs France/Russia.
Obviously, if the current alliances hold, and Russia/Turkey/England carve up France, and Turkey grabs Italy, then England could be left as Kingmaker, where he must decide to crown Turkey or Russia?!
Cheers,
Paul
Zvi Mowshowitz
Jan 4, 2011, 5:41:21 PM1/4/11
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
That is the default, yes; England ends up in an 13-13-8 type of situation assuming France and Italy are eliminated. However, that is NOT a kingmaker spot as it is possible for England to play them off against each other. That game is far from over, and England has a good chance in such spots to force a draw (or have the other two settle for one, because they can't get 17-17 to work cleanly since most such splits for R/T involve either an unstable situation or Turkish units in Moscow) or even battle back. We'll learn more in a few minutes, of course.
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