Spring 1904: The Second Front

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

England: The cavalry is coming! But, at what cost? There is no secure way to get a build out of this intervention. England can now try to steal St. Petersburg or get into Sweden, but Norway could still be lost in either case. Certainly things have improved, but the trap is still in place and it's not clear how interested Russia will be in helping the Western Allies. England could also explore the possibility of using Russia's intervention to make a deal with Germany, depending on how desperate Germany is, but that would be a tough one to negotiate. If Germany doesn't drive a hard bargain, England will simply take the bribe and then keep going. France has been a good friend by only building one fleet and sending it south. Note that with the North Sea in enemy hands both armies become useful, so it's no longer painless to lose a center.

France: Tyrolia fell, but Ruhr didn't. Now Munich is exposed and the only thing that can save it is a support or a support cut. If he moves in from Tyrolia the only unit that can save Munich is Russia's army in Silesia, but three players can cut off support from Tyrolia, which would otherwise be far stronger. None of those players particularly want to play any of those moves, of course. Vienna exposes Russia to a possible Turkish backstab, and Venice and Trieste both have to worry about other attacks including Austria's last stand. Chances are that Munich will fall, and Germany is going to have a big problem. He doesn't have enough units to deal three players even with their units being awkward, but it's not clear that those players are willing to work together. If they're not, a deal with one of them (or more!) makes sense.

Germany: In what seems to be a problem for 20th Century German war planners, England, France and Russia seem headed his way. As is the pattern he can easily deal with any one of them, and he could likely have fought England/France to at least a draw with proper play, but Russia is a big problem. The good news is that his interest is not to see England/France ransack Northern Europe, and he'll likely demand at least two centers out of Germany's seven plus he'll have to worry about how he can credibly keep them. Driving a wedge in some way is Germany's best chance. The other method would be to bring in the other two countries in the game, Italy and Turkey, and open second fronts on France and Russia respectively. Tunis falling relatively soon is a good beginning but it's going to take a while to reach France beyond that in a real way. Turkey could of course go straight for Romania and Budapest on the spot if he wanted to, but is that in his interest? I can't comment further on that, of course.

Austria: The Eastern Alliance played to grab all three centers in the Spring no matter what and got them. Austria can survive in one of five ways for another year. He can attack Venice with two units, and hope that Rome gets cut but France or Italy blocks sneaks instead of doing supports, or he can try to sneak into Rome, Naples or Tunis, or he can get France to support him into Naples. Lastly, he can get Russia to backstab Turkey and support him back in, but Russia's last move makes that impossible to pull off properly this turn. Finally, he can be dislodged from Ionian Sea by Turkey and retreat into a supply center if one is left open. It's highly unlikely he can keep two centers, but reasonably plausible he can keep one. Either way, however, his home centers are gone so it's not clear how much his heart will be in a game he can presumably no longer win.

Italy: Venice is once again occupied by Italian forces. That's the good news. The bad news is that Austria and France have him surrounded and outnumbered. Turkey may want to support Venice, which makes that hold unless France declines Munich, but Naples will fall if France supports in Austria and in theory Rome is vulnerable as well, plus Venice could be taken unless Turkey helps him hold it. Turkey may or may not want Italy to come out of this strongly; he could see him as an ally, or he could see him as the next target to carve. Italy has to guess whether to guard Naples or support Venice and Rome, and hope for the best. It's hard for him not to keep at least two centers unless Turkey is willing to turn hostile on the spot and Austria wants it to work, in which case he could potentially face a supported attack on both Venice and Rome, or a supported attack plus a sneak with a support cut. Italy needs either a Russia/Turkey war to start with a secure homeland or Turkey to decide to use him to slingshot into France as some sort of vassal state.

Russia: He's headed for Berlin, which can't be protected, but it's not clear to what extent this is a center grab and to what extent this is a war. Austria still having units forces Turkey to stay on the front in the south for now, so any withdrawl beyond Romania requires a lot of trust. The fleet is stuck in Sevastopol, which potentially costs Russia/Turkey each one unit permanently but it's not as if they could keep the peace and also get all their units working against other players; the board's not big enough for that. Turkey can't be attacked while also attacking Germany, but the threat that he could end the attack and head hope helps keep Turkey in check. If Russia stopped attacking Germany, it's not clear what Germany could do in retaliation, so the war doesn't commit him to anything. Russia will likely get multiple builds this turn from Budapest and Berlin, and presumably wants a northern fleet unless he plans to head south. England of course knows this, so temptation to sneak in is possible and there's the danger that England is forced to retreat from Norway.

Turkey: If Russia was going to backstab Turkey quickly, it would have been last turn or Russia would have demanded a better set up for it. Turkey now has no natural enemies beyond the Austrian refugees, so he'll have to figure out how he's going to grow beyond Trieste. There are several ways to go. Heading for Russia is of course possible, but Russia builds next turn unless multiple centers are taken. Heading for Italy is the other natural play, either as conqueror or liberator. As liberator Turkey would presumably try to keep the peace with both his allies, leaving him little to do for a while but presumably able to extract a price for that starting with Tunis. Presumably Turkey is shopping around for the better deal on the Italian front, or will do so later, but he also needs to keep in mind what he wants to do about Russia. If he wants to keep Russia friendly than Russia's opinion very much matters in what he does in the south, should Russia decide to care, but if he wants to attack then it doesn't really matter then does it? Turkey has to fight in Italy one way or another, no matter what he does about Russia.

That's all the Sultan sees fit to print, given his strategic position. As usual, these e-mails are in Reliable Naarator mode, which I also express in game using <reliable narrator> so I can discuss out-of-game issues or answer rules questions etc without anyone needing to worry I'm manipulating. Due to the nature of the game, however, I remind all that I have promised I will not lie about the rules or the implications thereof even in-game.