Fall 1905: Everybody Hates France

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

Note that we're on a two day break, since Germany needs to retreat off the board from Munich, then two days more for building. If you want to talk the Spring, of course, you can do it now.

When I reveal the *why* behind what just happened, I think it will be very interesting, but for now it's about what just happened on the board and the way forward.

England: There were three places to defend: Norway, Denmark and Sweden. England could defend Denmark and Sweden, risking Berlin and Norway, or he could defend Norway and Berlin risking Sweden and Denmark. Germany went for Denmark, and England doesn't build. That's the bad news. The good news is that Turkey held true, the Channel is occupied and Germany is going down, so England is going to have a good showing for a bit so long as the E/R/T alliance holds. Right now he can choose to keep the fleet in Sweden or retreat off the board and rebuild in Liverpool to go against France. Even if Russia is fully trusted Germany isn't quite dead yet and could keep the North Sea so keeping the fleets in the area seems dominant, but alliances can sometimes have enough trust to pull off moves like that. A deal with France only makes sense if Russia or Turkey is in on it, but all things are possible.

France: Turning on Germany prevented a two-disband scenario, but moved the front across Munich and Germany may well decide to fight back against Holland rather than defend the indefensible back home. France has some time to work the phone lines, but the tactical position is hopeless if he doesn't pull something off. There are three options: Russia, Turkey or both England and Italy. Some are longer shots than others, and if it doesn't happen in 1906 it starts becoming much harder for any of those options to work on their own. There's nothing inherently hopeless about the board, of course. France has been expelled from Tunis and Rome but there's still at least a year of southern cleanup to do before anyone can menace from there. England has a very annoying fleet that could head to Mid-Atlantic or try a convoy, but for now there's probably only one; England moving the fleet west would be very bad and cut off England from the list of possible allies. In the short run, one unit has to go. Assuming a retreat to Piedmont, the obvious choices are Piedmont and Tuscany, since France obviously wants to keep its fleets unless he badly needs to signal, in which case he could give up on Tyrrenian Sea and pull his units from the south hoping that Turkey will decide that Italy is a better victim than France for a while, or that with his flank secure he can proceed towards Moscow. It's not clear if that ends up buying time or losing it. Picardy is needed to prevent a convoy into Brest, so that's not an option. Pulling an army out of Germany is also possible, perhaps to try to get Russia to turn on England. The key question isn't what happens if everyone hangs together. The question is, what would stop that from happening?

Germany: If France had held true, Germany would still have four centers. Instead he's going down in flames. There are three units on the board, and keeping any two would make sense in some way. There's nowhere left to hide aside from a good guess in Scandanavia, although perhaps Holland is an option. It's probably more on his mind which side to frustrate while going down than anything else, but there's nothing left to bargain with. Germany's divided attention early on was likely a large part of the problem. Fighting on two fronts is bad, and Germany failed to either commit to knocking out France (although England's stumbles didn't help either on that front of course) or to commit to knocking out Russia (although of course Austria's reluctance to cooperate here again didn't help). It's an interesting reflection of actual history, where Germany frustrated England by driving through Belgium, his Austrian allies drew in Russia and Germany ended up divided by England, France and Russia. 

Italy: Welcome back to Rome! There is little time to celebrate, for much work is to be done. The fleet shall return, but France will still have at least two units in the area and Turkey is threatening to eat the whole place himself. How to fight back France without opening the door for Turkey? It's a tough question. Italy could try to turn the entire alliance against Turkey, but trying to do so and failing would be very bad and France would still likely end up as the new hostage taker. Neither side wants Italy to escape this trap. One option is to make himself too useful to wipe out by leading the front line against France, especially if he ends up in a key location on the stalemate line like Spain or Portugal, and hope to be part of a DIAS situation, but in any case it's going to be a while before Italy isn't at someone's mercy.

Russia: Munich fell, which was a pleasant surprise, and it looks like he'll be in Kiel shortly. The question now is how to get fairly paid for his "services" beyond Kiel as the war marches towards France. Trying to turn on Turkey too soon could risk a France/Turkey that could still easily carve up Italy (if he's hostile, or perhaps even if he isn't) and control half the board, likely leading to a de facto stalemate. Turning on Turkey too late risks having him consolidate his position so much that he becomes invincible, or reach a point where E/T is a natural alliance. Note that there's no reason Russia has to turn on either of his allies the moment Germany falls, even if his role in the war is limited; what matters is whether he's still in a good position especially if England is willing to give him Holland and/or Belgium, or hand over some Scandanavian territories as England makes progress against France. Turkey could potentially give up Trieste along similar lines as well, if the deal was still worth it for him.

Turkey: Letting Venice hold and recreating Italy may or may not have been a good idea. It creates another player to worry about, potentially, but it also moves the schedule along. Expelling France from the area is good for any plan except a French alliance, which doesn't seem to be on the menu. Peace on the Russian front continues but Germany is breaking down, so there's a potential danger point approaching there. The fall of Munich raises the possibility that Russia will grow faster than Turkey, but it's actually rather awkward for Russia to grow that much more without stabbing England which would keep him busy for a while. Things are still going well, but it's still a long game to win as Turkey.