Winter 1901: The Stage is Set
1 view
Skip to first unread message
Zvi Mowshowitz
Dec 7, 2010, 5:11:24 PM12/7/10
to lw-dip...@googlegroups.com
I am going to be objective and also not use my hidden information. You'll simply have to trust me on that, but I think this is too interesting not to share and I like to see high-quality gaming. If you all know how I work, you'll know that my code of honor here runs deep (I have no problem lying my ass off in-game of course regardless of how often I've done it so far). I don't think it's impossible from this and public information to figure out who I am (although it's easier if you're playing and can look at what each player has done) but if we all agree not to try too hard it should be fine.
England: A second army is a big gamble, and shows the army's order was a rules error. It leaves England exposed if his alliances aren't as strong as he thinks they are, and it means he can't apply pressure to the Mid Atlantic in the fall, but it does give him a convoy into Europe next turn if everything is secure. He's probably going to Belgium, but he could try for Picardy (or if he thinks France will think that, straight to Brest although it's not as a big a win as it looks if he gets it, and France could do an intentional clash in Picardy to stop both on the theory that Burgundy supporting would be highly unlikely). England should be at least a little concerned that Germany has two fleets and he put one of them in Holland instead of Denmark. However, this is a beginner's game so there's a good chance neither of them thought about this too much.
France: Short term there's no danger, but that changes fast. The only possible attack is MAR, which requires Italian-German cooperation. The German support can (and likely will) be cut from Paris, so Italy would have be willing to give the support order here with no fleets on the way. While the move to Piedmont is first-level anti-France, it cost him nothing to do it and as we'll see in his section it might not be for real. Two guessing games for him. England is going to try a convoy, but where to? Brest is the biggest payoff but most likely to be covered for that reason. Picardy might work but also might not, and Belgium is the safe play but has less upside. Meanwhile Burgundy could try for Paris, Picardy, Gascony or MAR. Going due south makes some sense if Italy is game for it, since the difficulty in pulling that off makes it more likely Spain will move up into Gascony. Gascony isn't as safe as it looks because of the army in Spain and Picardy doesn't mean much progress and forces England to go into Belgium. France can defend most but not all of these territories and/or attack Burgundy. An attack from Paris/MAR with Spain covering Gascony and Brest covering Paris is the most aggressive option. The German fleet is a crack in the presumed (from the moves) alliance and England's second fleet makes him weak, especially if Russia wants to help bring him down. Could France pull a Houdini end up on the winning side?
Germany: The fleet in Kiel exists for one of three reasons. It could be because Germany saw no use for another army, but there are several good ones. More likely it's headed somewhere, so either it's to try and grab the North Sea out from under England in a backstab or it's headed north to Sweden or at least to discourage a Russian attack with the threat to Sweden. If it happens there's not much Russia can do against an attack other than use his armies to invade Silesia and/or Prussia and menace Berlin, or let Sweden go and gamble that it doesn't get worse. Germany would like to avoid that so he can put more pressure on the west, but the best way to do that is unclear.
Austria: Austria didn't take Greece, but he's now in a position where he's likely going to be allied with his choice of either Turkey or Russia. It's clear he didn't trust Italy last turn (unless Trieste was a misclick and he meant to go to Greece), and Italy's move west doesn't commit him to much... and if it did, Venice could look juicy right about now - there's little chance Italy is going to convoy back into Italy. He's holding the cards right now in the south diplomatically. A war against Turkey forces both parties to expose their flanks, although Turkey can do little to stop them in the long run if neither gets attacked and would be gone in 1904 if things go well or 1905 if they go slowly. If he heads north, Romania falls right away and no flank need be exposed for either player but if no one jumps on Russia's exposed northern front the battle takes a while from there. Eventually Russia falls regardless, although if he only keeps one unit (F Sweden) in the north he can create a stalemate that requires Silesia to break.
Italy: Italy has a number of options, and chose his builds and moves in such a way that makes it wide open which one he intends. If he's going straight for France, the most obvious play given Piedmont, the logical move is Tunis to North Africa, Ionian Sea to Tunis, Naples to Tyrrenian Sea, when next turn move into Western Med and Gulf of Lyon. Italy itself is exposed, but is hard to attack without tipping your hand and Turkey is quite busy while Austria's units are not placed for a quick attack. There is a 3-strength attack against France in Spring 1903 that can convoy in a fourth unit, which combined with England and Germany should shred France. He then leaves the east to take its course. Option two is to head for Austria, either with a convoy into Albania/Greece, the second fleet heads for the Adriatic and the northern army goes to Venice or Tyrolia. That puts multiple units into position this year and all four within two years while putting Greece in friendly hands. The problem here is that Turkey and Russia are against each other presumably, so that creates a 2 vs. 2 which isn't a good way to make rapid progress. Option three is the Lepanto opening against Turkey, going to Aegean Sea or Eastern Med to try and convoy into the heart of the country. If Austria is friendly this essentially shreds Turkey, but if Austria sides with Turkey then again you're looking at a stalemate situation. Italy's best move is presumably to either head west with E/G or east with A/R (or R/T, but that seems impossible), since either creates a 3-on-1 situation. Splitting forces is also possible to stake a claim in the Balkans/Austria and another in France, but requires strong diplomacy in both cases.
Russia: Russia has likely chosen his path, and that path is his historic goal of Constantinople and the straights. Will he have aid in this quest? Allies will be everything, as it's impossible to beat Turkey alone for tactical reasons. Italy and Austria are both in a position to offer aid. Italy can try to flank Turkey, or Austria can cram down his throat. Under the standard attack, Black Sea is secure now, and then at a minimum either Greece or Bulgaria falls in the fall, presumably Greece; if Austria had Greece already this would go a lot faster, but already 1903 gets to be a very bad year to be a Turk here unless Italy intervenes. Meanwhile the north is weak. Sweden can't be defended expect by using Warsaw to threaten retaliation, which isn't a war Russia needs or wants, and England will be sorely tempted soon to try for StP if the west goes well; he is E/G's logical second target so even if they start off friendly this war could have a time limit. If he trusts Austria (or Turkey, in theory) he can defend both ends but won't make much progress. Note that a purely southern Russia that loses StP/Sweden can still win the game outright and often does if both sides stay on their side of the stalemate line, but it usually requires rapid expansion south. The flip side is also true, by the way, winning without Sevastopol and Romania if he can get a northern fleet and get Scandinavia. In both cases, the other side wins with fleets so the war can sometimes end with Russia still viable.
Turkey: Turkey is about to lose the Black Sea to Russia, and is clearly facing a six center hostile power. He can still hold out indefinitely if that's all it is, but Austria is not going to be neutral and let these two lock horns forever. If Austria joins Russia then Turkey is going to struggle to survive, presumably by breaking the alliance and/or bringing E/G/I down on A/T's head. Whether the cavalry can arrive in time is debatable if they don't start now, and if it does come right away there's a good chance it's not there to help. If Austria sides with Turkey, together they'll have the whole Balkans secure by year's end. It's a war they can win, eventually, but without a little extra help it's a hard slog given the way the first year went.
Several players have already given the green light to their orders. This game could easily start going much faster, as the alliances should be clear within a turn or two.
England: A second army is a big gamble, and shows the army's order was a rules error. It leaves England exposed if his alliances aren't as strong as he thinks they are, and it means he can't apply pressure to the Mid Atlantic in the fall, but it does give him a convoy into Europe next turn if everything is secure. He's probably going to Belgium, but he could try for Picardy (or if he thinks France will think that, straight to Brest although it's not as a big a win as it looks if he gets it, and France could do an intentional clash in Picardy to stop both on the theory that Burgundy supporting would be highly unlikely). England should be at least a little concerned that Germany has two fleets and he put one of them in Holland instead of Denmark. However, this is a beginner's game so there's a good chance neither of them thought about this too much.
France: Short term there's no danger, but that changes fast. The only possible attack is MAR, which requires Italian-German cooperation. The German support can (and likely will) be cut from Paris, so Italy would have be willing to give the support order here with no fleets on the way. While the move to Piedmont is first-level anti-France, it cost him nothing to do it and as we'll see in his section it might not be for real. Two guessing games for him. England is going to try a convoy, but where to? Brest is the biggest payoff but most likely to be covered for that reason. Picardy might work but also might not, and Belgium is the safe play but has less upside. Meanwhile Burgundy could try for Paris, Picardy, Gascony or MAR. Going due south makes some sense if Italy is game for it, since the difficulty in pulling that off makes it more likely Spain will move up into Gascony. Gascony isn't as safe as it looks because of the army in Spain and Picardy doesn't mean much progress and forces England to go into Belgium. France can defend most but not all of these territories and/or attack Burgundy. An attack from Paris/MAR with Spain covering Gascony and Brest covering Paris is the most aggressive option. The German fleet is a crack in the presumed (from the moves) alliance and England's second fleet makes him weak, especially if Russia wants to help bring him down. Could France pull a Houdini end up on the winning side?
Germany: The fleet in Kiel exists for one of three reasons. It could be because Germany saw no use for another army, but there are several good ones. More likely it's headed somewhere, so either it's to try and grab the North Sea out from under England in a backstab or it's headed north to Sweden or at least to discourage a Russian attack with the threat to Sweden. If it happens there's not much Russia can do against an attack other than use his armies to invade Silesia and/or Prussia and menace Berlin, or let Sweden go and gamble that it doesn't get worse. Germany would like to avoid that so he can put more pressure on the west, but the best way to do that is unclear.
Austria: Austria didn't take Greece, but he's now in a position where he's likely going to be allied with his choice of either Turkey or Russia. It's clear he didn't trust Italy last turn (unless Trieste was a misclick and he meant to go to Greece), and Italy's move west doesn't commit him to much... and if it did, Venice could look juicy right about now - there's little chance Italy is going to convoy back into Italy. He's holding the cards right now in the south diplomatically. A war against Turkey forces both parties to expose their flanks, although Turkey can do little to stop them in the long run if neither gets attacked and would be gone in 1904 if things go well or 1905 if they go slowly. If he heads north, Romania falls right away and no flank need be exposed for either player but if no one jumps on Russia's exposed northern front the battle takes a while from there. Eventually Russia falls regardless, although if he only keeps one unit (F Sweden) in the north he can create a stalemate that requires Silesia to break.
Italy: Italy has a number of options, and chose his builds and moves in such a way that makes it wide open which one he intends. If he's going straight for France, the most obvious play given Piedmont, the logical move is Tunis to North Africa, Ionian Sea to Tunis, Naples to Tyrrenian Sea, when next turn move into Western Med and Gulf of Lyon. Italy itself is exposed, but is hard to attack without tipping your hand and Turkey is quite busy while Austria's units are not placed for a quick attack. There is a 3-strength attack against France in Spring 1903 that can convoy in a fourth unit, which combined with England and Germany should shred France. He then leaves the east to take its course. Option two is to head for Austria, either with a convoy into Albania/Greece, the second fleet heads for the Adriatic and the northern army goes to Venice or Tyrolia. That puts multiple units into position this year and all four within two years while putting Greece in friendly hands. The problem here is that Turkey and Russia are against each other presumably, so that creates a 2 vs. 2 which isn't a good way to make rapid progress. Option three is the Lepanto opening against Turkey, going to Aegean Sea or Eastern Med to try and convoy into the heart of the country. If Austria is friendly this essentially shreds Turkey, but if Austria sides with Turkey then again you're looking at a stalemate situation. Italy's best move is presumably to either head west with E/G or east with A/R (or R/T, but that seems impossible), since either creates a 3-on-1 situation. Splitting forces is also possible to stake a claim in the Balkans/Austria and another in France, but requires strong diplomacy in both cases.
Russia: Russia has likely chosen his path, and that path is his historic goal of Constantinople and the straights. Will he have aid in this quest? Allies will be everything, as it's impossible to beat Turkey alone for tactical reasons. Italy and Austria are both in a position to offer aid. Italy can try to flank Turkey, or Austria can cram down his throat. Under the standard attack, Black Sea is secure now, and then at a minimum either Greece or Bulgaria falls in the fall, presumably Greece; if Austria had Greece already this would go a lot faster, but already 1903 gets to be a very bad year to be a Turk here unless Italy intervenes. Meanwhile the north is weak. Sweden can't be defended expect by using Warsaw to threaten retaliation, which isn't a war Russia needs or wants, and England will be sorely tempted soon to try for StP if the west goes well; he is E/G's logical second target so even if they start off friendly this war could have a time limit. If he trusts Austria (or Turkey, in theory) he can defend both ends but won't make much progress. Note that a purely southern Russia that loses StP/Sweden can still win the game outright and often does if both sides stay on their side of the stalemate line, but it usually requires rapid expansion south. The flip side is also true, by the way, winning without Sevastopol and Romania if he can get a northern fleet and get Scandinavia. In both cases, the other side wins with fleets so the war can sometimes end with Russia still viable.
Turkey: Turkey is about to lose the Black Sea to Russia, and is clearly facing a six center hostile power. He can still hold out indefinitely if that's all it is, but Austria is not going to be neutral and let these two lock horns forever. If Austria joins Russia then Turkey is going to struggle to survive, presumably by breaking the alliance and/or bringing E/G/I down on A/T's head. Whether the cavalry can arrive in time is debatable if they don't start now, and if it does come right away there's a good chance it's not there to help. If Austria sides with Turkey, together they'll have the whole Balkans secure by year's end. It's a war they can win, eventually, but without a little extra help it's a hard slog given the way the first year went.
Several players have already given the green light to their orders. This game could easily start going much faster, as the alliances should be clear within a turn or two.
Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages