Fwd: Fall 1904: Germany in Disarray

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

Accidentally sent this to the wrong place; apologies to France and Germany.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Zvi Mowshowitz <the...@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, Dec 21, 2010 at 3:53 PM
Subject: Fall 1904: Germany in Disarray
To: Overcoming Bias NYC <overcomi...@googlegroups.com>


Austria is gone, and both Italy and Germany are on the ropes. Italy was the victim of Austria's code of honor (this has come out in public chat), and Germany was the victim of poor tactics. Either could still recover, but it won't be easy.

Note that Germany cannot turn in his orders early due to a bug in the system, but I'm guessing everyone pretty much knows their builds so I expect the winter to go quickly once time runs out tomorrow.

England: England was the big winner of this turn as he finally gets his third fleet and Germany is falling apart. He might even get the North Sea back. The problem is that England is still too small and his two armies are still stuck at home making him effectively smaller. The deal with Russia is great, but it only holds for as long as it is in both players' interests so England will need to keep at least one unit in the area and may need to keep two. Germany is a good victim, but to get his share and talk into Holland or Denmark he's going to need some help. He might get it, but will soon find himself likely picking a side in a Russia/France war so he needs to watch both of his flanks. The alternative is a Russia/France alliance emerging to take on Turkey, and England may be of more use to them dead than alive. It's not clear he CAN be part of that party even if he wants to be, should it occur. Keeping Germany around may be to his advantage, and England's primary goal remains the same as always: Get to a viable size and get one of those goddamn armies out of the homeland! If he can't get to six centers within the year, he must get the convoy going and if he can't get at least one more center out of the deal he wants to keep Germany alive, the exception being if that relationship is so destroyed they can never work with each other again.

France: France was a big winner as he picked up Belgium on a tactical error and Rome on Austria's willingness to go down with the ship. Austria is gone now, and Germany is rapidly collapsing. France is likely going to build himself some fleets, which must then be divided between the north and the south. A southern campaign would get bogged down for a long time unless Turkey was under pressure from Russia and decided he'd rather let France make progress than let Russia make progress, but even then Italy can't make that decision and Turkey's fleets don't do that much else, so it's not clear that a reasonably allocated Turkey can lose in Italy anything but slowly. A deal with Italy is possible, but it's hard to envision a deal that works for both of them especially given the history. A northern campaign could be with England's help or it could head straight to London while England's back is turned but the two English armies do provide a certain amount of insurance by making the going tougher. They also make getting the Channel easier, though, so it cuts both ways. France wants to get a good share of Germany but Munich is already under Russian attack and he's going to have a lot of leverage into Denmark and Kiel soon, so getting more than Holland won't be easy. France's worst nightmare is that Russia/Turkey/England combines to take him down, and a Russia/Turkey war is the best way to prevent that. Either as an ally will be vastly better than neither.

Germany: The Russian sack of Berlin was inevitable, but Sweden and Belgium were tactical blunders. Denmark should have supported Sweden, which together with a move to Norway locks Germany into keeping either Sweden or Norway. Instead, he opened himself up to exactly what happened. In terms of Belgium, the support order doesn't work if the unit moves. France's natural move was Bur-Mun, which would have worked regardless; I don't think anyone expected a move on Belgium but there was no need to leave it vulnerable. The right play was to have Belgium support Munich into Burgundy, or to make a deal for Russian support for Munich, while Holland supported Burgundy. This one is murkier than Sweden, though. In any case, Germany is now down to four units and fading fast. The good news is that none of the four major powers want him dead as such, and they all recognize that everyone else taking a bite of Germany doesn't help them, so this may not be that solid an alliance. Survival is going to be tricky, but playing each side against the other could work.

Austria: He went out defiant, sacrificing a chance to stay alive in order to help France and hold back Turkey. For those who haven't seen it, check out the global chat for a partial explanation of what happened in the south. Essentially, everyone knew who I was, Russia and Italy wanted a triple for that reason and Austria felt it wouldn't be fair but that Austria/Turkey was a bad alliance for Austria, which it is. I hope the experience wasn't too bad; I appreciate what he was trying to do, it was a difficult situation for him.

Italy: Once Austria decided to go out the way he did, holding on to three centers was impossible. The goal now is to regain his footing, and that means convincing either France or Turkey to take a chance on reviving the country. France doesn't seem to have any intention of doing so, and it's hard to see what he would get out of it, so presumably Turkey is the only way. An alliance with Russia could prevent Turkey from moving in to Italy, but France would presumably finish the job in that case; Venice would fall and with Tunis already gone Italy can't get out, and is stuck until the fleets arrive to wipe him out. It's not clear whether Turkey has incentive to let Italy live in the long run, but in the short run the fact that he has nowhere else to go makes Italy a valuable thorn in France's side. At all times, Italy has to balance kicking France out with not inviting Turkey too far in. The scenario most likely to cause Italy to survive, strangely, is a future England/Italy/Turkey against France/Russia, with Germany either dead or on either side, because in that case Turkey will need every little advantage he can get.

Russia: The bounce in Romania didn't actually do anything because any attack would have been supported by Black Sea, plus Bulgaria did in fact head the other way. For now, the Eastern Alliance is holding, the Russia/Turkey border is peaceful and Germany is being carved. It's not clear how the four side countries will realign. Russia needs either France or Turkey plus a little extra or a tactical edge to assemble a winning coalition; France/England/Russia and England/Russia/Turkey are both easy wins (as of course is F/R/T). He helped get England a shot at Sweden, and luckily Germany messed up and the attack worked. Any fleet he builds will make England nervous, but in the long run Russia will need northern fleets. The next stop is presumably Munich, followed by Denmark and Kiel. Russia is in a good position to get quite large fast if Germany is allowed to collapse, which is exactly why it might not be allowed to happen. Like the other major players, Russia wants to stir up trouble between the three sides that aren't him or arrange three of the four to gang up on a victim. England, France and Turkey are all possible candidates for that. If the target is England he can try to consolidate control of all of Germany and Scandinavia. If the target is France, the going is slower but the goal is similar. If the target is Turkey, a collapse would put Russia in prime position to win but getting there quickly won't be easy.

Turkey: To some extent a move into Italy is inevitable due to the map; there is only one fleet that isn't his anywhere remotely close and it is quite busy. What the goal is there remains to be seen; it might be to carve up Italy to get a center or two and pacify the area. It might be to revive Italy and head west. It might be to grab most or the whole thing for himself, which in turn may or may not lead to heading further west. Indeed do many things come to pass, and of course to say more would give away too much. Right now Turkey is in a position where an attack by Russia isn't scary in the short term, but Turkey also doesn't have a good attack of his own. The alliance would be very good for both players if it held, likely resulting in it sweeping the board. The question both sides are asking themselves is: If that happened, who would get to 18 first, and how does that answer change who is going to backstab who first and when? A 17-17 draw is of course possible as well, but is always difficult to achieve. The alternative is to try and make a deal with France, or if desperate with England, but no one wants to be the odd man out in the triad.