Fall 1903: The End of the Beginning

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

England/France/Germany: The North Sea has fallen and Germany has all seven units working hard. Norway is likely going to fall, although Germany can't actually attempt a convoy or attack into Britain yet. France no longer faces an army in Ruhr and gets a build, so he can bring a fleet to the fight in the north. The southern war is over aside for the lone fleet's journey where it can try to raid for another build if Italy disbands his fleet and Turkey doesn't take its place with Greece to get busy getting to Trieste. Germany no longer has an army in Ruhr so he can't defend everything since North Sea can be cut - France can potentially send a supported attack into Belgium, or hit Ruhr, or hit Munich and Germany can only defend two out of three. Next turn the Western Allies get one to two additional units to fight with, which still leaves them outnumbered as long as England itself is not attacked but makes things more complex and if France slips out he gets to use additional armies. Norway is likely going to fall, but it's tough for Germany to make much rapid progress. The south is going to lose a player, so a rapid intervention becomes possible; it's an especially big worry for Germany but it could come on either side and no one knows if the Eastern Alliance will stay together. Of course, there's also nothing stopping the three of them from working together to stand up to the R/T/I alliance, and it's not clear who would win that fight but that would require a lot of trust.

Austria: It's over unless the alliance breaks, and Austria isn't in a position to offer much to anyone. Austria has two turns to go unless France sticks around to help. If France does that, Austria has three. Budapest will be wiped out, followed by an Italian double-attack on Venice and a triple attack on Trieste. There is no defense. What went wrong? The typo in Fall 1901 hurt but with a triple in hand it didn't matter much; the move to Venice combined with failing to make a deal with Turkey was what did it. He finally tried this turn, but Turkey didn't buy it. He was right to trust it, though, because it wasn't impossible that the offer was legitimate and if it wasn't what was the alternative? I could say more on the subject, but it will have to wait until after the game.

Italy: It takes a brave man to leave Tunis open. As a reward Austria is going down hard and fast, but Italy is down to two centers and probably no fleets. Venice will fall unless France decides to spend his unit defending it. If France decides to try and take out Italy, things are not going to get better for a long time and Italy will end up at Turkey's mercy at best. If France decides not to try, Italy will grow back to three and live to fight another day. Getting stabbed is painful, as is taking one for the team.

Russia: Vienna is in Russian hands and Budapest is doomed. These next two turns are mop-up unless they turn into a war with Turkey over the spoils. If ownership of Trieste can be settled, next turn Russia's army will be free to go into Germany if that is what he wants to do. At some point he'll need another northern fleet, but getting the place open safely is going to be tricky.

Turkey: The Houdini act is complete and two builds are secured. Where to next? Italy and Russia are both allies. Right now mop-up and consolidation are the name of the game, but soon Turkey is going to need to find another fight in order to keep growing. The triple doesn't have to break, because he can go past or along-side Italy westward, he can go through the middle into Germany or he can essentially sit on the sidelines for a while in exchange for a strong share of the East. That's in the future, however; more than anyone else he can relax for a bit. And by he, I mean me.

[Paul Conroy]

The game has certainly got very interesting from as a spectator sport!

There are so many possible scenarios. Germany by itself can probably take out England/France, but it's going to take them too long to do so. It would be in Germany interest to make a deal with France to carve up England between them, and this would free up the French to grab some of Italy, and would allow Germany to grab a piece of Austria.

The big winner this turn in the South are the Turks who got a valuable foothold in the Balkans, and if their alliance with Russia holds, then they can carve up Austria together. Of course if Russia takes Trieste, then Turkey is blocked from Central Europe and could go after Italy, and leave Venice to the Russians too.

So if France/Germany don't ally against England, they will soon be faced with an Austrian-fed Russia and an Italian-fed Turkey, but will France break ranks and abandon England??

Of course the longest enduring treaty has to be the non-aggression pact between Germany and Russia, which so far has worked for both very well. If Germany can't get a deal with France, and continues to battle for North Sea dominance, then it exposes a very soft underbelly to Russia, which may be too tempting to not stab?!

If France/England were to ally with Russia against Germany, it could be hard going for Germany, unless they made a deal with Turkey.

Also will the Russia/Turkey quasi-alliance hold, who knows? If Italy/Russia can get France to join them, they could take on Turkey, but this seems unlikely?

So does Turkey do a reverse Lepanto and make for Southern Italy/Tunis/Iberia or what? Obviously if they can't get a deal out of Russia, then they may face them in a few turns as enemies??

Is a Turkey/France alliance possible, that divides up Italy, and halts a Russian advance to the Adriatic - as surely if the Russians got there first, they could capture the Balkans easily, and pose a danger for Turkey?!

BTW, I hope I'm covering some of the options that Zvi can't, as he is actively in negotiations over them??

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

Paul, very interesting to get a true outside perspective. Do keep it up! Indeed do many things come to pass, and with this group I would not be surprised to see many alliance changes before the game is over. Interestingly, you site Germany/Russia as the one reliably peaceful pair... and Germany went into Silesia and took Sweden by force in 1902! Germany/Austria are pretty much the only neighboring countries that didn't fight, and even then it was a matter of opportunity since Austria presumably made a deal with France...