Fall 1902: The Fog of War
Zvi Mowshowitz
Name two countries that you’re confident have an alliance. I dare you.
Couldn’t do it, could you?
(Note: Yes, this series eventually makes it obvious there are certain countries I’m not playing. Trying to keep it to a minimum but nothing I can do about that.)
England: A series of tactical errors has the realm in very serious trouble, perhaps more than any other player. The decision to cover the North Sea was a good one, as not covering would have been a disaster. There were three choices. England could do what he did, in which case he foils a move to the English Channel if Germany tries for North Sea. He can move there with both this and Norway, and bounce regardless, which is the improved version of the safe play. The third option is to support yourself in, which you’d do if you had a deal with France. It’s possible that England was trying to move against Germany, in which case it didn’t occur to him to support with Norway in case Germany also stabbed him. It’s also possible the bounce was intentional, but if that’s true where is Germany headed? He’s not headed west with any probability of success and if he’s headed east why did he leave Silesia? England will need France’s help now, and will probably have to trust him with the English Channel so the alliance can get three fleets that are useful. That’s also a good way for France to know England can be trusted. Note how different a world we’re in if he convoys into Brest and bounces in North Sea with the other fleet, or even lets Germany in but then builds a fleet in Edinburgh. If Germany remains loyal the war against France can be won… eventually… if England is willing to expose the North Sea, or Germany will let England borrow Sweden, but two fleets need to be brought to bear on the Mid-Atlantic. German builds of all armies would tell that tale.
France: Suddenly France is probably faced with a choice of allies. Even allied England and Germany can’t touch him for several turns in any real way and it looks like they’re turning on each other. The problem is that none of the sides have too much leverage here. France can use his fleet and two armies at most against Germany and only his fleet in any serious assault on England, while England’s two armies are a strong defense of his home centers. Sending the only fleet up north invites England to sneak into Portugal and any attack can be covered easily. The war on Germany has more leverage from him but England only brings too effective units, so together they have five. Germany can field at least that many, and without any tactical holes in the system. The good news is that losing Norway doesn’t cost England a fleet, so actually making any real progress beyond that will take a long time and Germany has a flank to worry about if Russia’s units get freed up.
Germany: Yes, you can fight England/France to a draw and perhaps even win but at what cost? You’ll be the only one with an exposed flank the whole time and progress beyond Norway and perhaps St. Petersburg will be very slow past this point. Meanwhile he’s presumably pissed off Russia so the Eastern Front will heat up eventually if it isn’t guarded, so there needs to be progress in any western war. Getting France on the same page will be key and France may extract a high price. Even then, England won’t go down quickly; this process is going to take at least three years even without worries about the flank. Realigning with England is also possible, but England would have to trust Germany for that to work. Germany can signal that strongly by not building fleets this turn, but that’s quite the costly signal if England goes hostile anyway.
Austria: Remember when I said he’d have to choose a side this turn? I was wrong. Austria could have handed Romania to Turkey by supporting the move into Romania or the Black Sea to Russia by promising support and then betraying Turkey’s orders to Austria. He chose to do neither of these things. Meanwhile, it’s clear the stab of Italy was real as the Italians rush home. Italy is now clearly hostile, and can bring all three units to bear so that leaves Austria with three to spare. Russia has made his way into Galicia and Germany is headed home for now so that means Austria will need to cover Vienna and Budapest going forward unless he can convince Russia to leave, which would have little with which to make progress without working with Turkey explicitly. The opposite path is also viable especially if Germany is distracted, cooperating with Russia against Turkey, especially if Russia keeps two southern fleets after the disbands. I’d say he has to choose, but I said that last turn and I was wrong. If he can keep Turkey and Russia stalemated against each other the war against Italy can be won, but if Turkey and Russia make peace and all three countries attack then Austria eventually collapses.
Italy: The fleet in Eastern Mediterranean is presumably being disbanded, since otherwise this turn made little sense. Attacking Smyrna was a free action, but highly unlikely to work especially in a group this risk averse. Having only one fleet is awkward but can’t be helped and the war with Turkey is over. Austria has attacked and the Italians must rush back to defend their homeland. Tuscany and Apulia are two units aimed straight at Venice, and the fleet in Ionian Sea can cut support from Adriatic Sea to have an effective triple attack forcing a third defender. It won’t be easy for Austria to win tactically from here without help from Turkey, but the fleet in the Aegean puts Italy in a horrible position if it is hostile as losing the Ionian Sea will cause Italy to fall and without three units in the north Austria can get a fleet next to the Ionian Sea which causes it to fall anyway.
Russia: Russia has to disband, which is never fun. If he disbands a northern fleet that means he’s going to fight Turkey to the bitter end, but only with Austria’s help does that end well now that Italy is headed home. If he disbands a southern fleet, he’s hoping to make peace with Turkey. If he disbands an army, that seems horrible. St. Petersburg is wide open if the northern fleet goes away, although it’s possible England and Germany will be too busy fighting to take it especially if England is trying to get Russia to open an Eastern Front. If they’re still together, St. Petersburg will likely fall with or without the fleet. Fighting both Austria and Turkey is a recipe for disaster, so a deal with one (or both, in theory Turkey could head to Italy while Russia heads to Germany) of them is called for. The history of who stabbed who when and how often in these relationships won’t be known until after the game is over, after which I hope all sides will tell their stories. Tactically in the south progress against Austria will require help from Turkey since there are only three armies and Austria can fight off those and all of Italy’s forces to a standstill indefinitely, and progress against Turkey will require Austria’s help since there’s no way to get enough units in on the attack without getting eaten alive.
Turkey: It could have been all over if Austria was in on the attack, which didn’t happen, but neither did he offer support. Having neither happen was strange but it’s clear the stab was real, so Italy is headed home and Turkey is secure for now although an Austria/Russia alliance could form at any time and if Austria remains neutral and Russia stays hostile the Romanian War will never end. If Austria is friendly then the Austria/Turkey side will win the war in the east; Italy would be on borrowed time and Russia will soon face five units in Vienna, Budapest, Serbia, Bulgaria and Black Sea so the only way to hold the line would be to use all five units on defense, and then either flank in Bohemia or Armenia eventually makes six once Italy is contained even if no one vacations in St. Petersburg to knock out a unit. If Turkey manages to bury his differences with Italy and Russia then that’s a three on one and Austria isn’t big enough to survive that.