Winter 1902: An Inconvenient Fleet

[Zvi Mowshowitz]

Builds matter. Not as much as moves, but there's a reason this discussion is worthwhile and you get time to talk. In live games you only get 5 minutes instead of 15 for moves, so I encourage people to turn these around faster, but people need time to find each other.

I just want to say that this game is conceptually awesome, by far the largest diplomatic cluster**** I've seen in a long time. I am extracting oodles of utility from this.

Some countries have the same issues, so we can bunch together.

England/France/Germany: Germany's build is backwards, so the question is why. A fleet in Kiel would have enabled a strong move into the North Sea and an attack on England, so not putting one there is a sign that he's not planning such a move. However, what use does Germany have for a fleet in Berlin? Long term England should be very worried about that, and Norway is in danger if Germany is now hostile to England, which isn't far better than losing the North Sea but far from good. Note that only if France is also hostile does England losing Norway matter that much to him beyond handing Germany a build because it lets him disband an army that's sitting around doing not much. We still don't know which way Germany is going, continuing the pattern of a lot of players of making the move that reveals the least information possible about their diplomatic situation.

Austria: The second fleet helps get the Adriatic and later the Ionian, and is vital to start early because Austria can only build one fleet a year at most, but it's also potentially highly awkward. If he's allied long term to Turkey or Italy, of course, he doesn't need more than one or two, but going it alone or with Russia will require more than that. Splitting his forces to fight both Italy and Russia will be tricky, and the disbands show both are probably coming. He needs even more than before to sign an alliance with at least one of his three neighbors and do it fast, but the disbanded fleets made a deal with both Italy and Russia much harder (but of course not impossible) as the tools at attack Turkey effectively are off the board. Italy would certainly take a deal that returned Venice, but it's not clear later on that he has any incentive to keep it unless Russia or Turkey is along for the ride. That also strengthens Turkey's negotiating position, especially since Austria clearly wasn't explicitly allied to Turkey last turn.

Italy: Austria's second fleet is not what Italy wanted to see. The only deal Italy can accept is the return of Venice, and if Austria wanted to do that he would have done it by now. It's time to bash his head against the Austrian forces and see what can be accomplished and recruit as many friends as possible. Germany shouldn't be discounted as a possibility; a little help from Munich to cut a support is likely enough to win Venice back and it costs Germany little to do that, but Italy and Russia look like de facto allies so that might not be in Germany's interests. Then again, if Russia falls stalemating the rest of the east is good for him, so it might be exactly what he wants to do. The going can get seriously weird like that.

Russia: Russia has given up on winning over the Black Sea, and instead seems to be going after Austria. He's made a somewhat credible pre-commitment to not attack Turkey for a while, as even Austria/Russia/Italy can no longer quickly conquer Turkey. They'd win of course, but it would take about two additional years and that doesn't seem realistic. If Italy fights with Turkey the war likely becomes a stalemate unless Germany intervenes. The danger is that Turkey decides to continue the war, in which case that fleet will be sorely missed. Russia could also choose to head west against Germany, moving Warsaw and Galicia into Prussia and Silesia, and if France and England co-operate that would put Germany in big trouble. If Austria helped too, so much the better, and presumably a deal with him would be necessary to make this worthwhile. Adding Turkey to that mix would be great but isn't necessary as Turkey can't do more than harass Russia without help. Dealing with Austria however would be vital, or else Romania probably won't be the only center that falls.

Turkey: What a difference two disbands make! Turkey is all but untouchable in the near term unless he chooses to expose himself, and even then only Bulgaria is in even theoretical danger this year. Meanwhile, he has what seem to be two good options to sign up with Austria against Russia/Italy or with Russia/Italy against Austria. The problem is that it's not clear if these options are available. An Austria/Turkey deal has been a possibility for several turns and nothing has come of that, and who knows who backstabbed who in his dealings with Russia (it could easily be either, both or neither, and potentially more than once per side) plus the Italian relationship could be somewhat awkward as well.